Westministenders: The One Where Everyone is an Election Expert For 3 Days

[RedToothBrush]

The Vote has been cast.

The PM has quit. SHOCK!

We now face The Big Wait.

Waiting for the results. Waiting for the new leader. Waiting for a new direction.

Turnout looks likely to be up overall compared to 2014. Whether this is a good thing or a bad thing isn't clear.

At this stage realistically the only definite thing that I think you can actually speculate is the LDs have done very well indeed. Turnout is up in all traditional LD areas and remain areas in general. Though some LDs are getting a little carried away.

Does this mean that the Brexit Party will do badly? No. Its merely a reflection of demographic polarisation. And it may indeed help the Brexit Party ironically. It does suggest that Labour hasn't done well in the north (difference with 2014 turnouts worst in Labour areas) and there are hints that the Cons have done badly (Lincolnshire turnout for the locals was lower than for the EU elections). Something is happening in Wales. But no one seems to really understand what. Its gone 'rogue'!

Plus there are far more leave areas than remain ones. The increases in turnout possibly aren't enough to make a significant dent on the Brexit Party lead.

Not much of an increase in turnout in places like Derby, Middlesbrough, Hartlepool, Basildon, Leigh - which all have high leave figures suggest that the Brexit Party are not motivated those they persuaded to the polls for the first time in 2016 for the Ref to vote. Instead it means they can only increase their vote share with a further collapse in the Lab / Con vote from 2014. The question with this is how close were UKIP to the ceiling vote? If you didn't go with UKIP in 2014 would the ref change that? Does this mark it harder for them to hit close to 38% vote share? Argueably yes - but don't get too excited yet either. It doesn't mean they won't do very well, if there is a Lab/Con vote collaspe like the locals. I still would not be surprised by a mid-thirties result.

Psychologically the popular vote matters. This might be important for the future. The vote of those extra referedum voters hasn't been motivated by another protest vote under Farage. Who is going to try and court them? This affects the direction of all the parties.

The real issue is how the seats split down. With the vote fragmented between the LDs, Greens, Plaid and SNP the ranking is against them. And works for the Brexit Party.

Meanwhile Boris Johnson has vowed to crash the UK out the EU without a deal.... what internal numbers is he aware of???

Results due after 10pm Sunday.

Blame those pesky Western Islanders and their instance on observing the sabbath

Hazard he’s gutted and sadly and for a lot like him M&S was probably the only reason he went into the town centre he loves their £10 meal deal and he could go on the bus and not have to bother getting the car out the garage ( which makes the roads much safer) .

That town centre is dying on its arse and Brexit will in no way help.

I love that argument still goes on, it's literally been decades. I used to work that way years ago and heard the sorry tale a few times.

Never, ever talk about "Sandwell" in Sandwell ... nearly 50 years on, and it's still an open wound.

One of the reasons London tends to attract a lot of events is because it can organise things as a whole, whereas "the provinces" almost inevitable end up in a divisive squabble with Manchester, Liverpool and Birmingham preferring to slug it out, rather than join forces in a single "fuck off London" bid. That's before you add Salford, Warrington and Solihull into the mix. Then there's Wolverhampton ...

That town centre is dying on its arse and Brexit will in no way help.

Sutton ?

As it's learning (along with loads of other towns) it's nothing special.

When we've finished TV, and are making our own entertainment, DW and I occasionally look around and try to remember where we bought certain things ... we got our hats from BHS in Sutton in 2010. We only went there (from SW Brum) because it gave us a long enough drive to listen to a podcast.

Sutton park is nice. It was the site of a scouting World Jamboree in the 1950s where Prince Philip was the guest of honour. I think deer are also wild there. But since we (apparently) have wild deer in Quinton, it's less of a draw

I was at Uni with a guy from Sutton. He joked that you could be exiled if you ever explained to foreigners (i.e. Londoners like myself) that it was "in Birmingham". I also learned that knowing "Solihull" means "muddy hill" is a good way to annoy people from that neck of the woods.

DS and I are staying up to watch the results tonight. DS has been to the shop and bought drinks and snacks specially. Although I have a feeling he might fall asleep before then as he's been up since 4. But he is capable of going 24 hours at a time without sleep so we will see.

My grandmother was born in Erdington. I looked up the house on Google maps. It was rather posh.

DS and I are staying up to watch the results tonight.

That's a little too dedicated to democracy - even for my tastes .

Even for a GE, DW and I only tend to stay up until it's clear what the next government will be ...

Back in 2015, we treated ourselves the next day to a breakfast at Wetherspoons ....

DG if can be a little ‘territorial’ round here and we can’t forget Coventry ......or It gets really upset.

basil aye Sutton centre isn't what it used to be. I always put Sutton in the same bracket as Harbourne (niace areas of birmingham - there's also Mosley and kings health which are considered desireable for anyone wondering) and I've heard it's high st is now mostly charity shops and coffee.

Then there's Wolverhampton...

And they are proud yammies not brummies. Brummies and yammies have different accents, similar but not identical.

DG I dare you to describe Solihull as a (whispers) a suburb of Birmingham and see what happens......

Anyone seen turnout figures for north west Leicestershire?
Dear Mr bridgens constituency?

Hazard and to the trained ear a Walsall accent is different again.

Just had lunch with my parents in law, both of whom are lifelong tories and both voted lib dem for first time in this election. We're in London and it made me feel a bit happier about my change uk vote as I was worried about pulling support away from LDs. As moderate EU supporting tories, they are really worried about where party is going at mo.

Iam no why ?

basil yup... I don't know if anyone outside those areas can hear it but it's there

I can't hear the difference between Dudley and Wolverhampton though...there probably is one.

Squiggly do you think the Tory to Lib Dem switch a permanent thing or just a protest vote for your parents ?

In Zac's defence, he won his seat back from a LibDem in 2017 (anyone remember Sarah Olney). He of all MPs could reasonably argue his constituents accept him and his views Brexit stance and all.

Brummies and yammies have different accents, similar but not identical.

I know that.

Now.

The problem is to people outside the area - like the 10 million Londoners, there is a view that "Birmingham+Dudley+Wolverhampton+Coventry+Solihull+Redditch+" = "Birmingham. Which is in no way condoning it. Just a fact. Yes, you can call Londoners ignorant and all sorts of names. But that doesn't change the maths that for every person that gets wound up because someone from London thinks Solihull is really Birmingham there will be about 20 people that think Solihull is really Birmingham.

When I went to Uni, I really had no clue about what the rest of the country was like - or even where it was. My (English) DGM lived in Cornwall (may as well have been the moon) and apart from a trip to Leeds and Bristol as a kid, and then venturing to Reading Rock '83, I didn't have much exposure to non-London life. So I totally get the London bubble thing. In fact one of the lesser discussed losses of the fuckup we have for higher education in the 21st century is how it's kept students local and less able/likely to study away from home.

And - hilariously - it's only a one way street. I'm not at all offended by being called "a cockney", despite having been to Italy more times than the East end until I was 22. But call a yam yam a Brummie, and .... duck !!!

(Still waiting for Robert Plant to come good on his promise of setting up his own label "Yam Yam records" ...

Even though I've lived here 20+ years, I can struggle with really thick accents . I was in a builders merchants in 2015, and had a mini-meltdown as all I could hear was Brummigan, and I was hit with an overwhelming sense of sadness and being so far from home. Powerful enough I had to leave and return the next day. On reflection, if that's somehow related to the Leaver psyche, they might just get a shred of sympathy from me ... it's too much for the rational brain.

I prefer the 'pulling teeth' method of hearing election news, (string round tooth attached to doorknob). Go to bed early and get it over in 1 or 2 sentences the day after.
Reading the other articles in that Birmingham News doesn't inspire me to want to go there again.

Zac has as much right to do what he thinks is best once elected as anyone else and his party supported Brexit at the last election.
People need to start focusing on their MP's as individuals a bit more rather than just the color of their rosette.
I think politics in general would be improved for that.

I don't know, they are in their 70s. My MiL said her dad would be spinning in his grave. I pointed out the adage that once you switched it was easier to switch again and they didn't disagree. If the tory party carry on as they are I don't think they will go back.

DG I dare you to describe Solihull as a (whispers) a suburb of Birmingham and see what happens......

It is a suburb of Birmingham. Go along the A41 and there's no gap in the houses but you go from "Birmingham" to "Solihull". Just like a London borough. Same as Dudley ....

At least Coventry and Wolverhampton (just) have a few miles of fields between houses.

Hazard I struggle with that one too.

Salford is a city in it's own right, not a 'part of Manchester'.

I had a school friend with a garden that backed on to Sutton Park - they had their own gate. I thought it was wonderful.