Westministenders: The One Where Everyone is an Election Expert For 3 Days

[RedToothBrush]

The Vote has been cast.

The PM has quit. SHOCK!

We now face The Big Wait.

Waiting for the results. Waiting for the new leader. Waiting for a new direction.

Turnout looks likely to be up overall compared to 2014. Whether this is a good thing or a bad thing isn't clear.

At this stage realistically the only definite thing that I think you can actually speculate is the LDs have done very well indeed. Turnout is up in all traditional LD areas and remain areas in general. Though some LDs are getting a little carried away.

Does this mean that the Brexit Party will do badly? No. Its merely a reflection of demographic polarisation. And it may indeed help the Brexit Party ironically. It does suggest that Labour hasn't done well in the north (difference with 2014 turnouts worst in Labour areas) and there are hints that the Cons have done badly (Lincolnshire turnout for the locals was lower than for the EU elections). Something is happening in Wales. But no one seems to really understand what. Its gone 'rogue'!

Plus there are far more leave areas than remain ones. The increases in turnout possibly aren't enough to make a significant dent on the Brexit Party lead.

Not much of an increase in turnout in places like Derby, Middlesbrough, Hartlepool, Basildon, Leigh - which all have high leave figures suggest that the Brexit Party are not motivated those they persuaded to the polls for the first time in 2016 for the Ref to vote. Instead it means they can only increase their vote share with a further collapse in the Lab / Con vote from 2014. The question with this is how close were UKIP to the ceiling vote? If you didn't go with UKIP in 2014 would the ref change that? Does this mark it harder for them to hit close to 38% vote share? Argueably yes - but don't get too excited yet either. It doesn't mean they won't do very well, if there is a Lab/Con vote collaspe like the locals. I still would not be surprised by a mid-thirties result.

Psychologically the popular vote matters. This might be important for the future. The vote of those extra referedum voters hasn't been motivated by another protest vote under Farage. Who is going to try and court them? This affects the direction of all the parties.

The real issue is how the seats split down. With the vote fragmented between the LDs, Greens, Plaid and SNP the ranking is against them. And works for the Brexit Party.

Meanwhile Boris Johnson has vowed to crash the UK out the EU without a deal.... what internal numbers is he aware of???

Results due after 10pm Sunday.

{she's symmetrical, photogenic and has a cracker blow dry
I swear Esther McVey has hair extensions!}

Sod that, can she mix a decent batch of concrete?
I'll get the tea and biscuits sorted then do the second batch.

I think a GE is on the cards. Both Brown and May made the mistake of not going for one straight away and dithering. But this time events have caused things to move on and opinions are much more polarised. We have to add in the meltdown of the Tory party and to a lesser extent the Labour party. Are they in meltdown because the electorate want them to get on with Brexit, or in meltdown because they don't want them to get on with Brexit?

Until the cabinet and the country accept that the WA as it stands will be signed before any further negotiations, be it leave with a transition or more importantly, with a no deal, so dispelling that myth, there will be no real progress. The choice of who says this is important as it will leave many disappointed. Theresa in fairness (not that she really deserves this) has been saying this since last December. Had she laid it on the line and quashed the bollocks spouted by JRM and the ERG with their 'we will leave without signing and refuse to pay the bill' things might have moved forward.

{Are they in meltdown because the electorate want them to get on with Brexit, or in meltdown because they don't want them to get on with Brexit?}

Which is a universal problem because the referendum was 3 years ago and is now 'old data', as even if there is no conclusion, more people are aware of the pitfalls of leaving. Granted many are denying reality and digging their heels in but I am assuming more people will now have thought about it and in a second DEMOCRATIC referendum give a current informed result.

Good to hear a different view on Rory sounds like he might be a little bit too ‘well meaning’ for the Tory’s at the moment. And another one to stick on the pile ‘not really a Tory’ with Justine Greening.

My sources tell me that Rory has “massive temper tantrums in the office like a toddler.” which is apparently fairly common behaviour among the old Etonians. On the other hand, I’ve heard that Justine Greening is really lovely to work with.

I think that the new leader will get nowhere with changing WA, so the right wing will push for No Deal. At that point moderate MP's in the Tories will defect and the Government will collapse. -> General Election.

Hard to argue with this.

Also agree with the points about "personalities". Much as I'd like to see Labour led by old hands and cool heads right now, I suspect that in reality only a Labour Party led by media-friendly new blood like Jess Phillips and David Lammy would have any hope of romping to victory.

Let's hope the chukkers make up their mind about bed sharing with the LDs quickly!

DH has just been to vote. Already a convivial atmosphere in the Mairie apparently, because it is Mother's Day and lots of people come back to the village to vote. I do think Sunday elections are so much more sensible.

I’d rather see Jess Phillips in charge than Corbyn. In an ideal world we’d have someone like Yvette Cooper. I suspect the Labour Party would have to fracture first to get rid of the hard left.

Math "It's about policies - protecting the Single Market and the GFA - not personalities & charm."

I meant for the EU: that's why a change of PM won't cause them to reopen WA negotiations

Of course, the UK electorate are very susceptible to snake-oil salesmen.
They are far too deferential to the upper class, but despise "experts" and the "mc elite", not the uc elite.

I would rather see Keir Starmer. I don't think he is a particularly charismatic speaker, but the combination of a first-rate legal brain, the ability to think and respond in negotiations and the experience of having held a very high-pressure job would be invaluable. As a Labour voter I like his particular brand of socialism too.

It's annoying because back in the day Rory and Justine's views would have been pretty standard One Nation Tory. The problem is that the party has moved right leaving them stranded.

When do we get the EU election results?

Overnight tonight, Nigella.

The Western Isles don't start counting until tomorrow because today is the Sabbath.

Just think: if only Heseltine had won instead of Thatcher ....
The Tory party might have stayed One Nation and pro-EU

imo, controversial but was my impression at the time:
her coming to power with a rightwing conservative agenda also encouraged the GOP to turn right in choosing Reagan, which set them off on an unending descent ever further rightwards

and her political boost from the Falklands encouraged the US to shake off their fear of getting into wars, after Vietnam and invade Granada,
which was the start of the US choosing to invade much weaker countries, for politics and profit

Theresa in fairness (not that she really deserves this) has been saying this since last December. Had she laid it on the line and quashed the bollocks spouted by JRM and the ERG with their 'we will leave without signing and refuse to pay the bill' things might have moved forward.

One of May's big, big problems is that she is not a good public speaker. She needed to be a salewoman. To achieve anything with the red lines was a success, but her wooden delivery prevented anyone from seeing that. A saleswoman might have been able to tell the ERG to get lost also, TM wasn't capable of that.

Whereas Farage and Johnson are the complete snake oil salesmen, even though Farage actually does nothing, and Johnson wastes money, and opens his mouth and puts his foot in it.

I read that we start getting our results from 10pm onwards

Basilpots - I'm sure there is research about whether young people are now more likely to vote in Scotland but my gut feel is that if they get used to voting at a young age, then the habit remains as they get older and "life" (work, family etc) gets in the way.

Well yesterday I predicted Gove wasn't going to stand in the Leadership contest so feel free to ignore all of my future predictions

This message contains a health warning as I am aware it will make some heads here explode:

Robert Powell @ robertpowellnews
NEW: Michael Gove confirms this morning that he will be running to be PM - interview on the way...

And an endorsement for @michaelgove from former Ofsted head Sir Michael Wilshaw, who worked with Gove while he was Education Sec. Says he has made mistakes but would be a good PM #ridge

Speaking this morning, @michaelgove has said "I believe that I'm ready to unite the Conservative and Union Party, ready to deliver Brexit, and ready to lead this great country" #Ridge

Steven Swinford@steven_swinford
Justine Greening says she won't be running for the Tory leadership, describing it as a 'beauty parade of hard Brexiteers'

So it's like a general election if it had been held today? Polls close at 10pm and results then start trickling in?

Tom Larkin @ tomlarkinsky
.@JustineGreening won't be running and slams the leadership race as a "beauty parade of Hard Brexiteers". Says it won't be a proper discussion of the issues so she doesn't want to be part of it #Ridge

In fact though, to unite the country, we really need someone who isn't a rabid Brexiter. May might have been that person, being a lukewarm Remainer, but the way she tackled Brexit was wrong from the very beginning.

(We told her so, she didn't listen, we knew it would end in tears, literally in her case.)

Nigella yes.