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Brexit

Westminstenders: Has Boris been outmanoeuvred? Reprise

979 replies

RedToothBrush · 17/05/2019 22:31

In the beginning there was this thread:
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2670552-Has-Boris-been-outmanoeuvred?pg=1

And it said:
If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

And

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

So what of where we stand and the poison chalice of the Tory Leadership and a deal.

According to a poll of Tory Members, Johnson is by far their runaway favourite to become next leader. And he's given a 61% competence score - higher than any other candidate.

With Raab as their second favourite.

May has successfully managed to make such a mess of how she handled the 2016 Tory Party Conference and everything that subsequently stemmed from that, that the poison chalice of leadership will be passed and sooner than many would have wanted.

However blame for what follows can be laid at her feet. At the Labour Party’s feet for ending talks that were never going anyway. At the EU. And No Deal has been detoxified by May's handling amongst many supporters of Brexit. Johnson and Raab will therefore have no interest in striking a deal with the EU and instead set sail for exit on 31st Oct and will brazen it out.

What is scary is that waiting in the wings is Farage, who without winning a single seat in the HoC has more power than any MP. They are all so afraid of him. Thus we face a very hard push to the right, with the left and centre in disarray and disorganisation.

The Human Rights Act and Devolution settlements will be top of the list to go.

And we will face draconian ways to control the population as the lazy fools will want no accountability to the press or the courts.

How long before appointed or elected judges?

Was Boris outmanoeuvred?

By the look of it, absolutely not. He just had to wait a few years. But his path and power will not be lead by him... But by those who pull his strings.

It looks bleak. Very bleak.

Many may rue the day they didn't vote for May's deal yet...

... And fear of this nightmare vision of the future is the only card May has left in her hand to play. Will anyone realise this?

Probably not, because they will all still think Johnson's leadership bid will be blocked by moderates. The trouble is he's polling well and the cowards are too busy looking over their shoulders at the turquoise arrows.

Pray for a shock result next week which brings fewer Brexit Party seats than are anticipated. The trouble is they have the momentum right now and Remainers don't know their arses from their elbows much less be passion and inspiring to the young and to women.

We are fucked.

OP posts:
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NoWordForFluffy · 22/05/2019 14:34

I got 3 emails telling me I'd been mentioned in a post. They're fucking about with the site again!

HazardGhost · 22/05/2019 14:45

I've read all today's posts and I'm keeping up and want to celebrate the achievement by PMKing further along Grin

1tisILeClerc · 22/05/2019 14:50

{She’s a goner I think.

Just not sure what that will mean............./}

Maybe she will sneak out the back door of No 10 with the official PM's fountain pen and hoof it to Brussels and revoke?

No, not started drinking yet just a 'flight of fancy'.

LonelyTiredandLow · 22/05/2019 14:55

@Mistigri very interesting post about the attention seeking; I noted yesterday that one FB leaver posted a long video with a script about "When I die" with a long diatribe about how everyone will mourn him desperately and everything he cares about won't be important any more - was the height of selfish drivel and very ego centric - ending in "so let's LIVE!". couldn't help feeling it was an excuse to be a terrible human being rather than inspirational.

DarlingNikita · 22/05/2019 14:57

Ds (doing his degree in politics) explained to me why he thinks it won't happen.

Why is that? PLEASE reassure us!

DGRossetti · 22/05/2019 14:58

Getting rid of May today would provide her successor with a prefab excuse for the disastrous showing tomorrow and swerve any examinations of the underlying opposition to Brexit ....

Ellie56 · 22/05/2019 15:00

God this is painful to watch. Where is her self respect?

LoonvanBoon · 22/05/2019 15:06

Getting rid of May today would provide her successor with a prefab excuse for the disastrous showing tomorrow and swerve any examinations of the underlying opposition to Brexit ....

Yes. I don't like her but atm am hoping she'll somehow, miraculously, hang on.

FoldyRoll · 22/05/2019 15:18

Like a less analytical version of tobee's son, I knew for certain in my water that Tories in 2015, Leave and Trump would win, weeks in advance when all polls were saying the opposite. My water currently feels like the EU election polls are overstated. And that I need a wee.

bellinisurge · 22/05/2019 15:19

@DarlingNikita The PM has to be an MP that is able to command a majority of MPs in Parliament , usually from the same party. Farage is only marginally nearer that than I am.

DarlingNikita · 22/05/2019 15:23

Thanks, bellini. I hope so...

LoonvanBoon · 22/05/2019 15:30

FoldyRoll, do you ever place bets? I would if I had any record of calling things correctly! Desperately hoping you're right this time (well, assuming you're saying that the vote for Farage's lot is overstated).

I wonder if there was any data about how many tory voters voted UKIP in 2014? Because given that they got over 30% of the vote - can't remember exact figure - without anything like the degree of publicity the turquoise party's been getting, without being backed by major newspapers & without any polls saying 2/3 of tories were going to vote for them, I can't help feeling that Farage has to get a higher vote share than that.

PigletJohn · 22/05/2019 15:43

@fellini

Further, surely.

Iambuffy · 22/05/2019 15:46

I can only hope the 28% who did not vote in 2016 and regret it will stay at home.

Had another mail and from my own research it does seem that remainvoter.com had it right.

So, green it is 😡

bellinisurge · 22/05/2019 15:54

@PigletJohn Grin

tobee · 22/05/2019 16:14

Lol! My ds would be most amused that he's discussed on Mumsnet.

He did say something about people falling for Farage's "cuntish rhetoric about destroying the establishment" doesn't mean he'll become "Supreme Leader" Not sure how using that kind of language would go down in his finals next year? Shock

LonelyTiredandLow · 22/05/2019 16:14

Heard BBC news on school run and the British Steel story came complete with a Brexit link - however the link was not the same as Guardian article link (uncertainty of markets because of Brexit) but was about the offset of pollution that we usually get credits from EU for. Now, colour me suspicious but doesn't this choice say a lot? Brexiteers more likely to pooh-pooh climate change and say this is EU persecuting us...rather than "you dumbwits chose to create an uncertain market by voting for Brexit and no one wants to buy steel without a fixed tariff" Hmm

Mistigri · 22/05/2019 16:29

@Mistigri very interesting post about the attention seeking;

As a regular on twitter I am familiar with genre ;)

I do think that there is a big chunk of me-me-me behind this. These are people desperate for attention, and the various overlapping alt-right movements provide them with a ready-made stage, and also the possibility of monetising the attention.

Some of these people can "earn" (scam) a decent living when they'd otherwise be getting sacked from a series of minimum wage jobs for being unreliable/incompetent/confrontational. Of course the money aspect provides a good incentive to ramp up the antisocial behaviour, because confrontation sells.

I think that sane people should probably refrain from amplifying these people by retweeting videos tbh. The only exception being when people in positions of responsibility are caught on camera, like the mental health lecturer who got videoed abusing Femi. Hopefully his employer will have something to say about that.

RedToothBrush · 22/05/2019 16:29

Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
Sources close to Sajid Javid say he has asked to see the PM to push her to remove the second referendum vote requirement from the bill - he believes it is not what was agreed - he is not only senior minister who is v unhappy - situation getting very serious

Really? Is he the one who is going to do the deed?

OP posts:
QueenOfThorns · 22/05/2019 16:30

What does your DS say about the chances of a PV/revoke, tobee

[Desperately searching for a straw to clutch]

SusanWalker · 22/05/2019 16:31

So worried about how the vote will go tomorrow. I'm voting lib dem, have now definitely decided. I voted labour last time.

What a depressing time to be alive.

Still I've just finished reading Stasiland so have to remind myself it could be a lot worse.

1tisILeClerc · 22/05/2019 16:37

tobee
Apparently the 'C' word is now quite fashionable, I think it was the Grauniad that had an article about it. It certainly isn't 'new'.

TokyoSushi · 22/05/2019 16:37

I think 'The Saj' has been designated as the one to tell her to go, I've got so much to do but am literally watching it unfold as a horror show on twitter, I thought this was going to be such a dull week until the elections were done.

I'm manning a polling station tomorrow so I won't even have the news, you'll all have to keep me posted!

Iambuffy · 22/05/2019 16:39

tobee what are his predictions on EU elections and Brexit?

1tisILeClerc · 22/05/2019 16:46

Guardian online
{Amber Rudd to lodge complaint over UN's austerity report }
So the government is seeking to make a legal complaint over this and deny that the UK does not have such a degree of poverty.
I suppose it will bring the issue out into the light a bit more.