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Brexit

Westminstenders: Lets get on with...

939 replies

RedToothBrush · 05/05/2019 09:48

Admitting the mandate for leaving has expired.

The newspapers today are full of Talk of both Corbyn and May panicking that Brexit is destroying their parties, so after nearly 3 years of party politics they have decided that actually they can agree on something in the next week or so. Not because it's in the national interest but because they don't fancy mutual self assured destruction.

If they do manage to cobble something together then it with be rushed and shite.

If they don't they will be punished at the Euro elections by a Remain / Leave pincer action.

They can spin it all they like from their local election disaster that it was people wanting to get on with Brexit. It certainly does not change the reality that those people who were most likely to vote are fed up with the pair of them. And that there is a strong indication that the most motivated voters are remain leaning. Perhaps its true that leavers stayed home in protest. If they did, what will they do if the Brexit Party stand candidates at a general election? Maybe they will vote, but you can't argue that they view voting itself as an important act. Spoilt ballots were up, but not that up. If the pair do manage a deal, then we have Brexited which might satisfy some. The trouble is the underlying issues are not to do with the European Union. And even if we leave with a deal that does not resolve our future trading relationship. The poison that is Brexit won't end. And the voters will realise that soon enough. Leaving even with a deal will harm the economy, and that's only going to fuel discontent.

It's therefore hard to see where either party go from here. Not when they are effectively split internally. The poison is here to stay.

Spinning it as 'it shows the public want us to get on with Brexit' isn't going to help their cause with voters who still think leaving is a national disaster. Those voters will still think its a national disaster and will be even more pissed at being ignored and dismissed once again.

Where is the incentive to return to voting Labour or Conservative?

The Euro Elections, if they go ahead, will therefore be about one thing and one thing only: turnout. Even if the Brexit Party do relatively well, it will be about how many turnout in comparison to the locals and in comparison to the last EU elections. Whilst they might not admit the reality of things, ultimately all Labour and Conservatives really care about is securing the vote of people who will vote because voting intention doesn't win them seats if people don't turnout.

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Thread gallery
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ContinuityError · 07/05/2019 19:17

motherof4 my advice is to ban all cats from the bathroom if you want to enjoy a peaceful shower:

m.youtube.com/watch?v=WwSYm1NPHP4

dreichuplands · 07/05/2019 19:22

As soon as our Siamese hears a squeak of a bedroom door in the morning he starts squawking loudly for food.
He doesn't try and do anything as lowly as open doors himself, he just stands beside them shouting until he gets what he wants.
Our election voting packs arrived in the post today.

missclimpson · 07/05/2019 19:40

Our French electoral cards arrived today. Apparently there are 33 lists to chose from. I have so far ruled out the Royalists and the Esperanto parties. Ho hum.

RedToothBrush · 07/05/2019 20:00

Lewis Goodall@lewis_goodall
The referendum wasn’t our real populist revolt. That is probably yet to come. Even if a deal is agreed between May and Corbyn-especially if it’s agreed- this is only the beginning. My piece.

news.sky.com/story/trumpism-is-coming-to-britain-and-nigel-farage-is-leading-the-charge-11714025
Brexit: The conditions are ripe for the biggest backlash imaginable
Lewis Goodall says Britain's true populist revolt is yet to come - even if Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn strike a Brexit deal.

This is good. And yeah very possible.

The difference between the UK and the US US how the demographics stack up though. Whilst its similar in its provencial towns v metropolitan area to the US, the UK is split on generational lines in a way which it isn't in the US.

A populist revolt of youth is more difficult because of the number of older voters, lower youth turnout and a dislike of Corbyn amongst the middle aged (particularly the middle class) who have to also be on board to tip the scales.

And the tipping point moment probably will fall sooner rather than later - and that favours Farage.

It's worrying.

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RedToothBrush · 07/05/2019 20:12

Tom Harwood @tomhfh
^Peterborough rally for the Brexit Party.
When was the last time British politics saw something like this??^
Astonishing. They’re doing three rallies a week!

Westminstenders: Lets get on with...
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RedToothBrush · 07/05/2019 20:16

Lewis Goodall@lewis_goodall
For mainstream political forces to survive and beat this new politics they will have to start showing courage and telling a different story about Brexit and modern Britain. Thusfar they have not and instead hoped with a deal it might just go away. As I argue here, it will not.

Who is controlling the agenda in the media atm?

They are the ones who hold the power of the future as they dictate the conversations we have and the media create.

This really bothers me as its obvious who is on the back foot. And that's dangerous.

May is a busted flush. Corbyn is a spent force.

Worrying.

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ContinuityError · 07/05/2019 20:22

The Peterborough conference centre auditorium seats 1500 people. And Peterborough voted 61% Leave.

NoWordForFluffy · 07/05/2019 20:26

My mother has confidently told me that May is going this week. Inside info apparently. I have told her to be careful what she wishes for (i.e. Boris), but she doesn't seem that arsed. Ho hum.

I'm increasingly fucked off with the amount of press the Brexit Party is getting. Who needs dark money when the mainstream media are wanking over Farridge? Angry

Icantreachthepretzels · 07/05/2019 20:29

Oh dear... Change UK didn't keep hold of the old handle when they changed it just now, and @TheIndGroup has been re-registered by someone else to read "Hard Brexit"

Perhaps it was an extra savvy double bluff? Remainers know who chuk actually are - but now they can trick hard brexiteers (not the brightest bunch) into voting for them.

Astonishing. They’re doing three rallies a week!

When does he play Nuremberg?

Littlespaces · 07/05/2019 20:35

Trump / USA eat your heart out.

Trump hasn't been great for the poor.

prettybird · 07/05/2019 20:45

When was the last time British politics saw something like this??

Actually, 2 weekends ago at the SNP spring conference Grin Main auditorium and overflow auditorium (linked with screens) were at capacity with over 1500 people (there was a close vote on amendment which was won with something like 789 to 731 - and only delegates can vote while people with just visitor passes can't.

Nicola has also booked out the Hydro for just a speaking gig Grin

Littlespaces · 07/05/2019 20:49

Would Scotland take in English Remain refugees?

Moanranger · 07/05/2019 20:49

Today I saw a hand lettered sign on the A29 between Five Oaks & Pulborough reading : “ Honk if you like Brexit & Prosperity.”
The silence was deafening....

prettybird · 07/05/2019 20:50

1500 pah Wink

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-30157986 Twelve thousand at the Hydro for Nicola, 2 months after the Indyref. Shock

prettybird · 07/05/2019 20:51

And no, I wasn't there Wink

prettybird · 07/05/2019 20:54

Littlespaces - the Scottish Government has already said Scotland needs more immigration - and we already welcome refugees!

My back garden is already pencilled in as a refugee camp Wink (front garden is going to be the space for ceilidhs Grin)

DGRossetti · 07/05/2019 20:57

Would Scotland take in English Remain refugees?

It's fascinating (and illuminating) to ponder that English nationals travelling to an independent EU member state Scotland could have less freedoms than someone from the E27 ...

woman19 · 07/05/2019 20:58

When was the last time British politics saw something like this
People's Vote rally in November. Sold out with days notice. Likewise a month or so ago.

A million or two marching peacefully through London, regularly over the last 3 years.

Hundreds of grassroots groups working nearly every weekend.

#The3Million campaign.

Daily peaceful protest outsided HOC for 2 years. Rain or shine.

Without secret funding.

Who'd have believed we'd be preparing for EU elections 9 months ago?

(the populist 'wave' across Europe has meanwhile got even more flaccid)

We're still in the EU. Smile

RedToothBrush · 07/05/2019 21:00

From earlier today

Alex Wickham @alexwickham
No10 and Labour leadership increasingly see it as in their interests to pass a version of a customs union deal by July... question is not so much what, but when and how.

A customs deal passing via WAB rather than a May-Corbyn "stitch-up" is arguably more politically convenient for everybody – and would end up looking pretty similar to what's on offer this week

No10 desperate to pass a deal by the beginning of July so new MEPs never take their seats. "We aren’t totally immune to all the pressure, things can’t go on as they are until September or October" - senior aide to PM

Lot of reasons for Labour not to back a deal with May this week, but for Parliament to eventually end up with something that looks pretty similar:
www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/alexwickham/brexit-back-again?__twitter_impression=true
I Know You've Heard This Before But The Next Few Weeks Could Be Pivotal For Brexit. Here's Why.
We've entered the stage that Number 10 aides and political journalists are embarrassingly calling the "death zone".

Key points:

  1. Labour don't want a deal before EU elections. That doesn't work for them politically.
  2. Brady meeting May today about her departure timetable. If meeting goes badly, 1922 meeting tomorrow about leadership rules change. If she's thought to be too soft and willing to make a deal with Corbyn the vote could go against her. Two executive members who supported her are said to be wavering.
  3. The next deadline is now the July one before MEPs sit. In my mind, that's the deadline that really matters. If we don't make that, things will start unravelling. May does not have the power to go into another session of Parliament and have a Queens Speech. The Tory Party want their election this summer. Once we get past July there are very few days in which Parliament are sitting before 31st Oct and we are into conference season and that will be impossible for May to do anything.
  4. The WAIB or WAB (I prefer WAIB). The WAB, or as I think it's been referred to previously the Withdrawal Act Implementation Bill (WAIB) is the legislation that goes had in hand with the Withdrawal Agreement itself. The Withdrawal Act is the deal, but the WAIB or WAB is its sister which details how it will work in practice in UK law. Its been pointed out for some time that its absence from the Commons has been significant - we could not leave on 29th March even if the WA had been passed without it, as its the technical side of how the WA would work.

From the BuzzFeed article:
The ‘WAB’
If May and Corbyn don’t come to a deal this week, the government could press ahead with plans to introduce the Withdrawal Agreement Bill to Parliament anyway. Whitehall sources say that is the intention regardless of the outcome of the talks with Labour. This could actually help all sides.

Bringing the WAB to Parliament would allow Corbyn and other MPs to table amendments in favour of their preferred versions of Brexit. The WAB could for example be amended in the Commons to include the “permanent” customs union sought by Labour, ending up with a result not dissimilar to the proposed May-Corbyn customs deal, but without the impression that it was a stitch up by the two party leaders. The government could sponsor a set of indicative votes before the WAB is tabled to produce a similar result.

The WAB’s journey through Parliament is fraught with further difficulties. It’s possible that the House of Lords could amend whatever comes through the Commons to add on a “confirmatory referendum”. That would mean a crunch Commons vote on whether to hold a second referendum, and Corbyn coming under huge pressure from his Remain-supporting MPs to back it.

So get your heads around the difference between the WA and the WAIB (I think I'm going to go with WAIB because the I referring to implementation makes it easier to understand the difference). This looks what we are going to be tackling in the next couple of weeks.

In the last half hour

Laura Kuenssberg@bbclaurak
1. Number 10 says talks today was 'detailed and constructive' - Labour source says they were 'tense and robust' and govt was 'disengenous' to suggest they are offering anything new on customs

2. 2 sides will meet again tomorrow but if today was meant to be the moment when impetus from the election shambles for both main parties spurred them to a constructive conclusion, it was not - sounds like they had a bargy for several hours over customs policy

3. Labour source says ministers more or less admitted they weren't really putting much that was different on the table - they say they will still pursue an FCA, then go to bare bones customs union if that fails, with more explicit language about that in the political declaration

Very much on course for what Wickham describes in the article.

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Littlespaces · 07/05/2019 21:03

I'm seriously considering it, as we are self financing / mobile and the dc's (last one leaving school soon) will all qualify in skills which are in demand.

One of my daughter's is a teacher. Could she apply for a job in a Scottish school?

Ironically my only tie is my elderly Leave voting Dad, but the dc will have to take priority.

Peregrina · 07/05/2019 21:13

Who is controlling the agenda in the media atm?

It's worrying and maybe I am kidding myself, but back at the end of 2016 /early 2017, May could do no wrong, the BBC was wall to wall Farage, Corbyn could do no right - constant stories about how one time Labour voters could never vote Labour while he was there. And yet, Corbyn did much much better in the election than predicted, UKIP collapsed and May threw her majority away.

Could the same happen again? 1 million plus protesting, despite Clavinova telling us we were only 300,000, 6 million signing a petition, despite shock horror some people signing from abroad, or teenage children signing, and now the Tory meltdown in the Local elections, in shire counties which were predominantly leave, which is a sign that we want to get on with Brexit apparently..... as prettybird says strong support for the SNP. It's not being reported, but we haven't gone away.

Then the young people's climate protests and Extinction Rebellion - where did they come from? Not promoted by Farage populism, that's for sure.

I take issue with some of the Sky Report: After all, euroscepticism has long been a deep vein of British political life. Brexit wasn't, as the lazy caricature so often goes, a populist revolt of the working classes. It was a narrowly won but solid rejection of the European Union by leafy Hampshire and Surrey commuter towns along with Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire pit villages - a rejection which was based on accumulated decades of political activity and sustained suspicion towards the union's political legitimacy among the general population.

Well as far as Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire pit villages (which were the scabs in the last Miners' strike, don't forget), most people neither knew nor cared about the EU. Yes the Surrey and Hampshire leafy commuter towns, I will go along with to some extent. But which towns have the Tories been slaughtered in? Chelmsford, Essex, Winchester, Hants, Vale of White Horse, Oxfordshire, St Albans, Herts - all the leafy, moneyed commuter places. And again, despite Clavinovas protests about low turnouts - the one place I know about, having been at the Count, the Vale of White Horse, the turnouts were high and the Tories were absolutely thrashed - with Lib Dems and a Green not taking seats by just a couple of hundred extra votes, but 800-1000 extra votes.

So I am hoping, perhaps forlornly, that the media love affair with Farage is not the sign of anything happening. We are not, despite what Farage and Johnson want, like America.

OublietteBravo · 07/05/2019 21:23

Would Scotland take in English Remain refugees?

It's fascinating (and illuminating) to ponder that English nationals travelling to an independent EU member state Scotland could have less freedoms than someone from the E27...

I’ve always wondered how it is possible for English students (who are currently EU nationals) to pay full university fees in Scotland, whilst EU27 students don’t have to pay any fees.

TalkinPaece · 07/05/2019 21:27

The council I was working at today was interesting.

Tories were TOTLLY wiped out last week.
At the next level up, half of them survived
BUT
with significantly reduced margins
and a huge number of spoiled ballots
and lower turnout than the smaller council - so people too two slips into the booth and did not fill out one of them

LOTS of remain anger out there that the meejah are ignoring

Peregrina · 07/05/2019 21:41

LOTS of remain anger out there that the meejah are ignoring

Quite, and while I was writing my longish post woman19 was saying much the same thing.

Iambuffy · 07/05/2019 21:43

Do Irish citizens have to pay Scottish universities fees?