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Brexit

Westminstenders: Fallout coming to a place near you soon

981 replies

RedToothBrush · 02/05/2019 18:18

Once again not much to report on Brexit itself.

The sideshow of Gavin Williamson lots set to run and rumble on. The scandal further weakens May as she has lost a key ally. Despite his protests of innocence, May herself must believe he is guilty. Whether this is because she is indeed too heavily influenced by Sedwill is the question, but for her to sack him when she has failed to do so with other Cabinet Members so many times means she must feel there is good reason. Every other party has seen it as a good opportunity to put the boot in and demand an investigation. So far this has been paid lip service as the Cabinet Office must approve any investigation and this doesn't seem to be forthcoming from Lidington. This may not hold, if pressure grows. In truth the whole affair is unlikely to damage Williamson's leadership ambitions; he has raised his profile and set up a narrative of a Remainer Victim. Penny Mordaunt has been the other major beneficiary of the issue.

May now seems to have abandoned the idea that there will be a way forward found before the European elections and they are now definitely going ahead. This isn't a surprise as there is no incentive for Labour to have an agreement before the EU elections in which the Conservatives are certain to get a bloody nose. She also seems to be dropping hints they she will give into a customs union.

We have a visit from Trump to look forward to, which will be utterly joyous. There are rumours that he might meet Farage whilst he is here. His visit starts on 3rd June and finish on the 5th.

The Peterborough By Election is set for just a few days later on the 6th June. The Brexit Party have a very good chance of winning their first Parliamentary seat here - so the temptation to have a photo shoot with Trump will be all the more appealing to Farage. The hope must be that the Brexit vote will be split, allowing Labour to retain the seat. The previous Conservative MP, Stewart Jackson might well stand and he's very Brexity, George Galloway is trying to get the Brexit Party candidency though I think it unlikely and he will probably stand as a Pro-Brexit Independent anyway. There is also the prospect of Farage himself standing as its a winnable seat, but this seems unlikely as you can't be an MEP and an MP and its a high risk strategy to go for MP rather than a sure fire MEP. (Plus the pay is better for MEP).

May faces a challenge at grassroots level with an Emergency Meeting called by the Conservative Associations at her leadership. This will be in mid June. After the local, EU elections and Trump's visit this will be difficult for her to survive. Whilst she has survived this long, this will prove to be her biggest challenge yet.

It has to be said that there is no sign that we will get anything but no deal ultimately. There is an admission that May can't pass a Queen's speech with anything meaningful, so as long as she remains as PM parliament is even more paralysed that it has been to date. All things point to a new leader who is very Brexitty or accidental no deal because May can not do anything.

Meanwhile in the real world there are rumours that cancer treatments are now being delayed indefinitely due to Brexit... And so we continue to destroy ourselves and now, it seems, actively kill people in the name of Brexit.

Local Election results will start tonight with the majority tomorrow. Tories are expecting 700 - 1000 losses.

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TalkinPaece · 02/05/2019 20:53

usually
That site is fun

BigChocFrenzy · 02/05/2019 20:55

hate It shows a significant minority of Leavers - 40% - vs a small minority of Remainers - 12%

The difference in the curve shapes "not at all important " to "not very" to "fairly" to "very" are showing the different worldviews of the 2 tribes

There is no typical Leaver or Remainer, but the majority of each have different views about e.g.
Britishness, the importance of speaking English, wolf-whistling at women, feminism "has gone too far", refugees.

Previous studies have shown major differences in views on the death penalty, also smacking

The UK had 2 different tribes before the referendum, but it is the referendum and its aftermath that made us realise this

woman19 · 02/05/2019 20:58

More dodgy/sexist/ leading/ racist questions from that questionnaire.

This 'survey' smells funny.

Do you agree with this statement? "My country is divided between ordinary people and the corrupt elites who exploit them

What does that even mean? It's a mad question.

Do you think people moving here to avoid war or persecution are generally good or bad for the UK

What, like baby Jesus?

Shock

Please say whether you think it is generally acceptable or unacceptable to have a baby outside of marriage

Please say whether it is generally acceptable or unacceptable for a man to whistle at a woman he doesn't know in the street

Do you agree that the movement for women's rights has gone to far in the UK

FRO. Grin

www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2019/may/02/leavers-v-remainers-how-britains-tribes-compare

Maybe the Guardian decided to lift this survey from Breitbart? Grin

HateIsNotGood · 02/05/2019 20:59

As an Environmentalist who appreciates the long game - who realizes that embedded change takes time - it's a brilliant Brexit by-product that so many will now vote Green. I'll take the FuckIt vote anytime - it's still a vote.

BigChocFrenzy · 02/05/2019 20:59

The infomation is important, because many believe that this mess was mstly caused by austerity and inequality,

but many of the issues on which Leavers differ from Remainers are about culture and values,
and spending more on public services & benefits won't bridge that chasm.

RedToothBrush · 02/05/2019 21:00

Hmm I wonder which councils have been shit hot at getting those polling cards out and which have been slower than a tortoise towing a truck?

Its a Labour Council - I am aware they are all remain though in the closet about it. They certainly didn't muck about getting our polls cards out.

I wonder if it's Conservative councils dragging their feet.

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BigChocFrenzy · 02/05/2019 21:03

woman It was part of extensive research into populism by YouGov - other European countries are also starting too investigate this

The 2 different groups responded differently on key questions
So the questions served their purpose of highlighting different world views, different cultural outlooks

TalkinPaece · 02/05/2019 21:03

No EU cards here
maybe its linked to what other elections are going on ?

HateIsNotGood · 02/05/2019 21:05

BCF - I'm not sure about "world views" being applicable (I take the Grauniad as seriously as I would take The Sun) merely highlighting some other inferences that can be drawn from the graph used on the other thread.

I don't think it's got much 'legs' really but it helps the paper sell a few copies to it's 'audience' but let's not give it too much credence.

How'd you vote to today?

woman19 · 02/05/2019 21:06

I agree with what you've just said Woodpigeons not that Owen Jones fella!
It's a right pickle.
This labour party is not the real Labour Party. They can't be allowed to carry on betraying the 70-80% membership who are remain, us Women and Jewish members.
Me too, just voted lib dem this evening.

NoWordForFluffy · 02/05/2019 21:06

I did think that some electoral offices might be waiting until today is over, then sending cards next week.

RedToothBrush · 02/05/2019 21:06

The UK had 2 different tribes before the referendum, but it is the referendum and its aftermath that made us realise this

DH has been saying since I met him that there were two different Britains. It's only recently that it's been noticed by everyone.

I met DH 15 years ago now.

The culture difference between some places in the UK is something we've been very aware of. I think there were many who were completely oblivious to it

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borntobequiet · 02/05/2019 21:07

I think this has been posted before, but it’s nice
m.youtube.com/watch?v=ceX5jJ5fggs

NoWordForFluffy · 02/05/2019 21:08

Our little microcosm appears to be populated by many LD voters in this election. I wonder how they've done nationally. I hope they do well.

BigChocFrenzy · 02/05/2019 21:09

hate I take YouGov seriously especially when they do a detailled research study, not just a poll

floraloctopus · 02/05/2019 21:13

We got our EU polling cards a couple of weeks ago but none for today.
We live in an area with 4 towns, 3 of which get most of the money and our town doesn't get much - it's furthest away from the other 3 which are close together. Of the candidates on one of our papers only one lived in our town, thankfully he was from a semi-acceptable party.

Two from one of the other parties, perhaps unexpectedly, live in massive houses on a very expensive road, very rural area. Not very Green....

HateIsNotGood · 02/05/2019 21:16

RTB - maybe more than 2 Britains? If you can reduct Britain into only 2 tribes what are those 2 tribes? I see many more than 2 'tribes' and more than one divide - there's North/South and Urban/Rural for starters.

Also 4 countries plus a couple of Islands that have their own 'laws' - Isle of Man and Channel Islands.

Not just 2 Tribes at all.

ContinuityError · 02/05/2019 21:16

Conservative Council here - our EU polling cards arrived a few days ago.

HateIsNotGood · 02/05/2019 21:18

And that is you pregorative BCF.
How'd you vote today?

NoCryingInEngineering · 02/05/2019 21:19

The council here is bluer (? that looks wrong ) than blue so there may be something in your theory RTB.

There's definitely a huge chunk of the English electorate that doesn't realise that there are non-English perspectives on a whole bunch UK wide issues. The level of confusion I can generate by pointing out that I have no GCSEs or A levels to my name is a case in point.

ContinuityError · 02/05/2019 21:19

The Channel Islands and the IoM aren’t part of the UK.

yolofish · 02/05/2019 21:20

wonderful photo of GW and the horse BCF!

BercowsSilkTie · 02/05/2019 21:21

Have I missed something about Change UK? Are they not a good choice in the EU elections?
Greens and Lib Dems don't know what a woman is so wound never vote for them. Too much kool-aid being drunk there turning them all into the Woke Parties. My local Green candidate had to think about their views on Europe but eventually decided change was better coming from within so they decided to vote remain. At least they thought about it I suppose but I'd expect a councillor to have thought about their views on things before being asked about them by a voterHmm Oh and transwomen are women but you can't change sex is also their view Confused
Has anyone read the thread on the Greens over on FWR?

BigChocFrenzy · 02/05/2019 21:23

Pretty Is this what you're expecting for Scotland in the EP elections ?

We keep being told how popular Ruth Davidson is
but predictions are that 40% of Scottish Tory voters will turn to Farage - so no Tory MEP at all
You get rid of that godawful Kipper, but replace him by a Brincel

Also predicts that Scottish Labour vote will collapse and go to SNP, Greens, Chuk - does Corbyn ever think about Scotland when continuing to block the PV ?

Even a chance at 4 SNP seats !
I must admit, they'd deserve then, as the only functioning main pary

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/6359f812-6867-11e9-adc2-05e1b87efaea

Ruth Davidson’s party faces losing its only representative in the Strasbourg parliament,
analysis of the research by YouGov found, as nearly 40 per cent of voters who backed the Scottish Tories two years ago switch to Mr Farage’s new group.

HateIsNotGood · 02/05/2019 21:26

Continuity - well are they independent nations that sit on the UN? Or are they British? Irish or French? Why do they have UK postcodes?

What the Hell Are They? "I think we should be told".

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