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Brexit

Westminstenders: Fallout coming to a place near you soon

981 replies

RedToothBrush · 02/05/2019 18:18

Once again not much to report on Brexit itself.

The sideshow of Gavin Williamson lots set to run and rumble on. The scandal further weakens May as she has lost a key ally. Despite his protests of innocence, May herself must believe he is guilty. Whether this is because she is indeed too heavily influenced by Sedwill is the question, but for her to sack him when she has failed to do so with other Cabinet Members so many times means she must feel there is good reason. Every other party has seen it as a good opportunity to put the boot in and demand an investigation. So far this has been paid lip service as the Cabinet Office must approve any investigation and this doesn't seem to be forthcoming from Lidington. This may not hold, if pressure grows. In truth the whole affair is unlikely to damage Williamson's leadership ambitions; he has raised his profile and set up a narrative of a Remainer Victim. Penny Mordaunt has been the other major beneficiary of the issue.

May now seems to have abandoned the idea that there will be a way forward found before the European elections and they are now definitely going ahead. This isn't a surprise as there is no incentive for Labour to have an agreement before the EU elections in which the Conservatives are certain to get a bloody nose. She also seems to be dropping hints they she will give into a customs union.

We have a visit from Trump to look forward to, which will be utterly joyous. There are rumours that he might meet Farage whilst he is here. His visit starts on 3rd June and finish on the 5th.

The Peterborough By Election is set for just a few days later on the 6th June. The Brexit Party have a very good chance of winning their first Parliamentary seat here - so the temptation to have a photo shoot with Trump will be all the more appealing to Farage. The hope must be that the Brexit vote will be split, allowing Labour to retain the seat. The previous Conservative MP, Stewart Jackson might well stand and he's very Brexity, George Galloway is trying to get the Brexit Party candidency though I think it unlikely and he will probably stand as a Pro-Brexit Independent anyway. There is also the prospect of Farage himself standing as its a winnable seat, but this seems unlikely as you can't be an MEP and an MP and its a high risk strategy to go for MP rather than a sure fire MEP. (Plus the pay is better for MEP).

May faces a challenge at grassroots level with an Emergency Meeting called by the Conservative Associations at her leadership. This will be in mid June. After the local, EU elections and Trump's visit this will be difficult for her to survive. Whilst she has survived this long, this will prove to be her biggest challenge yet.

It has to be said that there is no sign that we will get anything but no deal ultimately. There is an admission that May can't pass a Queen's speech with anything meaningful, so as long as she remains as PM parliament is even more paralysed that it has been to date. All things point to a new leader who is very Brexitty or accidental no deal because May can not do anything.

Meanwhile in the real world there are rumours that cancer treatments are now being delayed indefinitely due to Brexit... And so we continue to destroy ourselves and now, it seems, actively kill people in the name of Brexit.

Local Election results will start tonight with the majority tomorrow. Tories are expecting 700 - 1000 losses.

OP posts:
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OublietteBravo · 02/05/2019 22:02

Polls are closed.

jasjas1973 · 02/05/2019 22:02

With the amount publicity both the EPs and LC elections have had, plus that the polling card clearly states what they are for, few will have a genuine excuse.

Seriously, voting is an absolute right but also carries responsibilities too, far too many people just think they have rights and nothing else.

TalkinPaece · 02/05/2019 22:06

I Voted today
I'll vote later this month
and I get to vote every fourth November so there

woman19 · 02/05/2019 22:08

Thank you born that film was just the ticket Smile

SwedishEdith · 02/05/2019 22:09

NW as well and think I've often voted Green in Euro elections. Need to research carefully as to what is actually going to be most effective.

HateIsNotGood · 02/05/2019 22:11

Clerc agree- jas is being harsh, and I wonder what else she would like to ban.

Clerc - a "slur against some" - you mean why can't some posters just say outright that they don't live in the UK but live in the EU or work for the EU (or their spouses) and don't live in the UK and that is why they are so opposed to Brexit - because it directly and personally affects them (or not if WA was voted through).

But instead of just speaking the truth and say how worried they are about their own circumstances (completely understandable) they continually slur, after slur the people that actaually do live in the UK.

Of course that doesn't apply to you as you live in the Caribbean Smile

TokyoSushi · 02/05/2019 22:11

PMK, thanks as always!

BigChocFrenzy · 02/05/2019 22:14

First results about midnight
Who's staying up? Not me !

English results should be all available by 6pm tomorrow

NI with their STV will reportedly take longer

  • it will be interesting to see if the DUP lose seats or maintain and a reasonable indication of what would happen in the EP and GEs, as BREX and CHUK won't be a factor in NI
BigChocFrenzy · 02/05/2019 22:20

hate So you suspect Remain posters of working for the EU ?
Like the other 16 million then

Should we suspect you of being paid by Russia ?
Or maybe just accept that the country is split in two over Brexit and that the 2 groups post their views

ContinuityError · 02/05/2019 22:21

HateIsNotGood well I’m pretty sure that neither IoM or CI fit into your two tribes, although not being eligible to vote and still having to deal with the fall out probably makes life difficult.

Nice avoidance of “mansplaining” too.

LonelyTiredandLow · 02/05/2019 22:33

Wondering who the masses turning up for EP voting ended up voting for? If they don't usually vote it could make for interesting changes and interesting insights into what they would do if Brexit Party/UKIP didn't exist.

The euandi site is fun, however they seem convinced Labour are not pro-Brexit. I got Labour top then LD 2 points behind...yet my most definite A's were to Q's about Brexit? Anyone else wonder at this?

HateIsNotGood · 02/05/2019 22:34

Two tribes is not my idea - it's OP's and I refute it.
No I don't think for a milisecond that the UK's Remain vote works for the EU.
Love the idea you think I'm Russian (and rather hilarious that anyone that regularly posts any alt-Remain posts are suspected of it).
But it is true that many posters in the Brexit forum live out of the UK - just say you do, I have no idea why you aren't open about it.
That's it really - I'm just a long-term MNetter no more, no less.

And really, neither Russia nor the DM are interested in what we have to say - none of us are that important at all - always makes me laugh in other boards when a poster starts with "DM fuck off" - like the DM is interested.

Спокойной ночи сейчас

1tisILeClerc · 02/05/2019 22:35

HateIsNotGood
While I might not now live in the UK my family does and I want them to retain the advantages of being in the EU that the shitty bastards who want to leave are taking away from us.
Leave is a campaign filled with hatred for others and as an observation the attitudes from some in the UK are truly disgusting and having travelled worldwide I have never seen such negativity elsewhere.

Loletta · 02/05/2019 22:37

Went to vote and it was really busy here too! Let's hope for a decent turnout!

Rufusthebewilderedreindeer · 02/05/2019 22:38

Polling stations close in a few minutes - for the few of you here that actually can vote in them - I'm far more interested in that

Well I can't vote in it

Doesn't mean i live in the eu or work for them

Are we still doing the 'remain voters love the eu and live there and work there' schtick? I thought the debate had matured a bit

OublietteBravo · 02/05/2019 22:39

Night all. I’m not waiting up.

Rufusthebewilderedreindeer · 02/05/2019 22:39

Oops hate

Cross post cos im a slow typer Grin

BercowsSilkTie · 02/05/2019 22:40

I've just been looking at the stats for last year and there was a 36% turn out for our local elections. Appalling. It will be interesting to see what this years turnout was.

TheElementsSong · 02/05/2019 22:40

Well somebody's reasonable mask slipped a bit tonight, then Grin

Rufusthebewilderedreindeer · 02/05/2019 22:40

Though i dont understand why its a problem for voting remain if you dont live in the country

But that's probably because i live in a military area...and lots of people i know get posted abroad

LonelyTiredandLow · 02/05/2019 22:40

alt-remain Confused
And FWIW regular posters talk about/mention the country they reside in daily on these sites. If anyone is unclear it is because they haven't been paying attention.
Nothing changes Grin

prettybird · 02/05/2019 22:42

BigChoc - I think that is a fair analysis, although I still think it's highly unlikely that the SNP would get that 4th seat.

By all accounts, Labour would lose one of their (current) 2 seats - dh has had dealings with David Martin(?) who is still 1st on the list and says he's quite good. Catherine Stihler, who I'd been impressed by at a Nordic Horizons event and seemed to be an active MEP, is not on the Labour list. Don't know if she chose not to stand or if she was de-selected.

I'm hopeful the Greens will get an MEP, which then leaves the 6th and final place as a fight out amongst the Conservatives, the Brexit Party (which hopefully will have its vote split with UKIP), possibly the LibDems or Change UK, an extra Green seat (difficult) or a 4th SNP seat (even more difficult).

For all wee Ruthie aspires to be the next FM (HmmGrin) and is doing the rounds of interviews saying that she is coming back from maternity leave with a renewed focus and energy, I don't think she can overcome Maymaggedon.

I do anticipate her putting together a Scottish EU campaign based around "Say No to Indyref2" Confused - not even "Say No to a PV" HmmConfused which may or may not be effective - but which possibly just give those susceptible to such a message the impetus to vote Brexit/UKIP Confused

LonelyTiredandLow · 02/05/2019 22:43

That was in response to HatenotHope Smile

LonelyTiredandLow · 02/05/2019 22:47

Or Hate even Wink

Saw the swastika on the car (sorry forgot who posted upthread) as it's relatively local. No idea why they've targeted a LD with a UKIP badge of honour. Mistaken identity?

HateIsNotGood · 02/05/2019 22:55

You see Clerk - from your POV you have a personal reason to see yhings the way you do and are quite rightly concerned because of them. It doesn't make everyone else who has different life experiences and therefore different POVs a bunch of fucking cunts set out to ruin your life.

Tolerance and understanding of difference is key here.

My Dad was a Pilot, learned how to fly as a teenager (age 17 lied about his age) bombing thousands of people to death in WW2 - which he never, ever forgot. Took part in the Berlin Airlift, taught me so much about life and showed me the world. How we are the same and different and yet the same, wherever we come from and wherever we are. That as individuals we should make up our own minds

I don't have a problem with anyone voting to remain nor where they live. At all. I do have a problem with continually being called a racist, ignorant, etc, etc because from my POV the UK should Leave the EU now. That our EU membership has been a good thing for the past 40 years, but that now the UK should leave.

How's those Local Elections going?

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