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Brexit

Westminstenders: Fallout coming to a place near you soon

981 replies

RedToothBrush · 02/05/2019 18:18

Once again not much to report on Brexit itself.

The sideshow of Gavin Williamson lots set to run and rumble on. The scandal further weakens May as she has lost a key ally. Despite his protests of innocence, May herself must believe he is guilty. Whether this is because she is indeed too heavily influenced by Sedwill is the question, but for her to sack him when she has failed to do so with other Cabinet Members so many times means she must feel there is good reason. Every other party has seen it as a good opportunity to put the boot in and demand an investigation. So far this has been paid lip service as the Cabinet Office must approve any investigation and this doesn't seem to be forthcoming from Lidington. This may not hold, if pressure grows. In truth the whole affair is unlikely to damage Williamson's leadership ambitions; he has raised his profile and set up a narrative of a Remainer Victim. Penny Mordaunt has been the other major beneficiary of the issue.

May now seems to have abandoned the idea that there will be a way forward found before the European elections and they are now definitely going ahead. This isn't a surprise as there is no incentive for Labour to have an agreement before the EU elections in which the Conservatives are certain to get a bloody nose. She also seems to be dropping hints they she will give into a customs union.

We have a visit from Trump to look forward to, which will be utterly joyous. There are rumours that he might meet Farage whilst he is here. His visit starts on 3rd June and finish on the 5th.

The Peterborough By Election is set for just a few days later on the 6th June. The Brexit Party have a very good chance of winning their first Parliamentary seat here - so the temptation to have a photo shoot with Trump will be all the more appealing to Farage. The hope must be that the Brexit vote will be split, allowing Labour to retain the seat. The previous Conservative MP, Stewart Jackson might well stand and he's very Brexity, George Galloway is trying to get the Brexit Party candidency though I think it unlikely and he will probably stand as a Pro-Brexit Independent anyway. There is also the prospect of Farage himself standing as its a winnable seat, but this seems unlikely as you can't be an MEP and an MP and its a high risk strategy to go for MP rather than a sure fire MEP. (Plus the pay is better for MEP).

May faces a challenge at grassroots level with an Emergency Meeting called by the Conservative Associations at her leadership. This will be in mid June. After the local, EU elections and Trump's visit this will be difficult for her to survive. Whilst she has survived this long, this will prove to be her biggest challenge yet.

It has to be said that there is no sign that we will get anything but no deal ultimately. There is an admission that May can't pass a Queen's speech with anything meaningful, so as long as she remains as PM parliament is even more paralysed that it has been to date. All things point to a new leader who is very Brexitty or accidental no deal because May can not do anything.

Meanwhile in the real world there are rumours that cancer treatments are now being delayed indefinitely due to Brexit... And so we continue to destroy ourselves and now, it seems, actively kill people in the name of Brexit.

Local Election results will start tonight with the majority tomorrow. Tories are expecting 700 - 1000 losses.

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woman19 · 02/05/2019 20:19

40% of Leavers feel that to be 'truly' British, it's very important that both of your parents are born in the UK
Ask a racist/daft question; get a racist/daft answer. Sad
Crumby that the guardian ran this 'survey'.

Thanks Flowers red

Rory Stewart is an interesting minister, he was in the Labour party as a teen according to wiki. And has had a prize winning book he wrote, optioned by Brad Pitt. Shock

BigChocFrenzy · 02/05/2019 20:20

Matt Dathan@matt_dathan

Nigel Farage rules out running for the Brexit Party in the Peterborough by-election:

“No, impossible, I have a national campaign to run”.
< Grin >

BigChocFrenzy · 02/05/2019 20:23

If May is getting rid of bumptious immature twerps, then Hunt should be worried too

Harriet Line@HarriLine

Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt, commenting on Gavin Williamson’s departure as he arrived in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, said:

“On a personal level I’m very sorry about what happened for Gavin’s sake but given the gravity of the situation there was no other alternative outcome”

QueenOfThorns · 02/05/2019 20:24

I thought our remain vote in the NW was LD or Green?

Yes, but which? Or doesn’t it matter? Also, I thought that was worked out without taking the CUKs into consideration? Who the hell knows what kind of a spanner they’ll throw into the works. The more far right options the better to counter this, I reckon!

borntobequiet · 02/05/2019 20:25

Rory Stewart is a painfully principled and consistent politician. It must cause him great disquiet. He was probably born 200 years too late. George MacDonald Fraser would have described him very well.

woman19 · 02/05/2019 20:27

Not Brexit, but a potential test case for proving air pollution causing children's deaths may be on the cards. Ella Kissi-Debrah's ( a little girl who was made dreadfully ill and died due to air pollution) mum Rosamund Kissi-Debrah, has been absolutely brilliant today on LBC and Channel 4 news.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/ella-kissi-debrah-inquest-death-air-pollution-high-court-rosamund-a8896116.html

Peregrina · 02/05/2019 20:28

Locally the turnout was steady - about 70 in the hour. I was telling at a polling station on an estate. I wonder if for some of the more rural areas, which traditionally vote Tory, if they just stayed away? (Well, here's hoping, as far as I am concerned.)

NoWordForFluffy · 02/05/2019 20:28

@QueenofThrones, it was thereabouts equally split between the two, so could be either / or. CUK do throw a spanner in the works though, which is why I'm waiting to be told what to do!

floraloctopus · 02/05/2019 20:29

Queen red, blue, orange or green are the choices here - no purple in sight.

Ironic moment of the day #1: the couple getting out their car discussing their intention to vote Green. They live with 10 minutes walk of our very local polling station .

Littlespaces · 02/05/2019 20:30

Polling booth deserted. Pouring with rain.

Straight contest between Lib Dem and Tories. I'm hoping the Lib Dems win.

Littlespaces · 02/05/2019 20:31

No Green candidate in our area.

woman19 · 02/05/2019 20:31

principled and consistent politician
One of few tories in government to have studied human rights too? Interesting fellow. Old school tory.

woman19 · 02/05/2019 20:32

Modest (half a dozen or so ) queue in my polling station when I went to vote at tea time.

BigChocFrenzy · 02/05/2019 20:33

woman The Leave / Remain questions were highlighting a different worldview between the 2 tribes
I'd always rather have information, even if it is depressing, rather than be in ignorance of how many hold such views.

RedToothBrush · 02/05/2019 20:36

The North West seems to be Lib Dem v Green for the final seat. But the lead LD has a dodgy history. Chris Davies (former MEP. Was leader of the LD MEP group until forced to resign)

I'm leaning towards voting Green for that reason, as I can't vote LD and then moan about Labour's problem with antisemitism.

I've not voted Green before. I've voted just about everything else in the past (Ukip and Brexit Party don't count) so why the hell not. Seems like a good enough reason these days.

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BigChocFrenzy · 02/05/2019 20:37

YouGov

"Do you think Theresa May was right or wrong to sack Gavin Williamson as Defence Secretary?"

31% Right
11% Wrong
58% DK

5439 GB adults were questioned on 2 May 2019.
Results are weighted to be representative of the GB population.

yougov.co.uk/opi/surveys/results#/survey/1a08a5e3-6cb7-11e9-a4f7-ad923cefa2c1

RedToothBrush · 02/05/2019 20:38

I'm still pissed at the best NW candidate for the NW being a bloody Tory.

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woman19 · 02/05/2019 20:39

But it's an odd/ leading/reductive methodology, BCF
Why would anyone not wanting a racist answer ask a question like that?

There was another weird question about whether it was OK for blokes to whistle at women in the street.

Ask a dodgy question, get a dodgy answer.

Look at the referendum of all those years ago.

And........we're not tribes Wink Many of us don't identify as politically binary. Grin

usuallydormant · 02/05/2019 20:40

Not sure if this has been mentioned yet but an interesting website just launched to help on choosing best party to vote for in EU elections based on your attitudes towards policy positions. Once you take the are you can delve into how your opinion stacks up against their policy. Also shows which country has the party that best aligns with your position.

www.euandi2019.eu

NoWordForFluffy · 02/05/2019 20:41

I've not voted Green before. I've voted just about everything else in the past (Ukip and Brexit Party don't count) so why the hell not. Seems like a good enough reason these days.

Snap! Fuck it, why not go for a new one?! I quite fancy tarting about the parties to try to achieve an aim.

Iambuffy · 02/05/2019 20:41

Mum is ill and I has to take her to see the duty dr at end of surgery.
Poor thing is feeling really rough.
The pharmacy had closed, so had to go to town for new antibiotics and stuff.
Just back.
Off to bed, I think.
Lets hope for joy in the morning x

HateIsNotGood · 02/05/2019 20:43

So 39% of Leave voters think that to be "truly British" it's "very important" that you need 2 British parents which means that 61% of Leave voters don't think it's "very important".

12% of Remain voters think it's "very important" too - so some 'racists' lurking around in the Remain camp.

What was the actual question asked? What would the result be if you asked the same question of Spaniards.

Anyway, we've got some Local Elections to watch, it makes a nice change from watching the HoC vote...maybe not so much for those of you who don't have a Local Election to vote in.

BigChocFrenzy · 02/05/2019 20:44

I attach my fav photo of the former Defence Secretary, in which he defends himself against a horse 😂
while the soldiers carefully don't snigger !

https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/huawei-affair-exposes-the-lack-of-discipline-in-this-zombie-government-a4132521.html

The latter breach in precedent matters especially because it signals Williamson’s determination not to go quietly.

Conspicuously absent from his resignation letter was the traditional expression of admiration for the Prime Minister or a pledge to continue supporting her from the back benches.
< ooh er >

Westminstenders: Fallout coming to a place near you soon
NoCryingInEngineering · 02/05/2019 20:46

Options for Da Coonsil here were Green or Blue so I voted Green. There was also one (1) Labour candidate - but 3 seats to fill.

Still no EU polling cards though....

woodpigeons · 02/05/2019 20:52

I posted the article from the Guardian as I felt it an interesting POV that votes for Labour will hopefully produce less Brexit MEPs whose aim is to disrupt the EU parliament.
So if anything tactical voting.
I joined the Labour Party to have a say in, hopefully potential, leadership elections and have already contacted Corbyn several times telling him I won’t vote for Labour while it is a Brexit party.
I’ve decided that the advantage of having less Brexit MEPs is not as important as boosting Corbyn’s votes, and by default his strategies.
So back to the Lib Dem/Green conundrum I go.
I voted Lib Dem today.

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