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Brexit

Westminstenders: Fallout coming to a place near you soon

981 replies

RedToothBrush · 02/05/2019 18:18

Once again not much to report on Brexit itself.

The sideshow of Gavin Williamson lots set to run and rumble on. The scandal further weakens May as she has lost a key ally. Despite his protests of innocence, May herself must believe he is guilty. Whether this is because she is indeed too heavily influenced by Sedwill is the question, but for her to sack him when she has failed to do so with other Cabinet Members so many times means she must feel there is good reason. Every other party has seen it as a good opportunity to put the boot in and demand an investigation. So far this has been paid lip service as the Cabinet Office must approve any investigation and this doesn't seem to be forthcoming from Lidington. This may not hold, if pressure grows. In truth the whole affair is unlikely to damage Williamson's leadership ambitions; he has raised his profile and set up a narrative of a Remainer Victim. Penny Mordaunt has been the other major beneficiary of the issue.

May now seems to have abandoned the idea that there will be a way forward found before the European elections and they are now definitely going ahead. This isn't a surprise as there is no incentive for Labour to have an agreement before the EU elections in which the Conservatives are certain to get a bloody nose. She also seems to be dropping hints they she will give into a customs union.

We have a visit from Trump to look forward to, which will be utterly joyous. There are rumours that he might meet Farage whilst he is here. His visit starts on 3rd June and finish on the 5th.

The Peterborough By Election is set for just a few days later on the 6th June. The Brexit Party have a very good chance of winning their first Parliamentary seat here - so the temptation to have a photo shoot with Trump will be all the more appealing to Farage. The hope must be that the Brexit vote will be split, allowing Labour to retain the seat. The previous Conservative MP, Stewart Jackson might well stand and he's very Brexity, George Galloway is trying to get the Brexit Party candidency though I think it unlikely and he will probably stand as a Pro-Brexit Independent anyway. There is also the prospect of Farage himself standing as its a winnable seat, but this seems unlikely as you can't be an MEP and an MP and its a high risk strategy to go for MP rather than a sure fire MEP. (Plus the pay is better for MEP).

May faces a challenge at grassroots level with an Emergency Meeting called by the Conservative Associations at her leadership. This will be in mid June. After the local, EU elections and Trump's visit this will be difficult for her to survive. Whilst she has survived this long, this will prove to be her biggest challenge yet.

It has to be said that there is no sign that we will get anything but no deal ultimately. There is an admission that May can't pass a Queen's speech with anything meaningful, so as long as she remains as PM parliament is even more paralysed that it has been to date. All things point to a new leader who is very Brexitty or accidental no deal because May can not do anything.

Meanwhile in the real world there are rumours that cancer treatments are now being delayed indefinitely due to Brexit... And so we continue to destroy ourselves and now, it seems, actively kill people in the name of Brexit.

Local Election results will start tonight with the majority tomorrow. Tories are expecting 700 - 1000 losses.

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Whisky2014 · 02/05/2019 19:05

Pmk

BigChocFrenzy · 02/05/2019 19:06

Tom Newton Dunn@tnewtondunn

A strong hint/concession from No10 that the Huawei leak doesn’t constitute a criminal offence.

PMOS:
“This is not about what was leaked, it’s about where it was leaked from, and maintaining the integrity of the National Security Council”.

BigChocFrenzy · 02/05/2019 19:07

Some places just have the donkey's arse

prettybird · 02/05/2019 19:11

Can't remember who it was on the last thread that very succinctly articulated that Labour assumes that its Remain voters are safe and will still vote Labour whereas they're worried about losing their Leave voters. Hmm

I think they're wrong. And they'll find that out at the EU elections - especially because of the d'Hondt system.

bellinisurge · 02/05/2019 19:12

I went to vote and have never seen it so busy. Even at general elections. There's a local hot topic so maybe it was that . As well as the other.Confused
I asked the people at the polling booth if it had been busy "Steady" they said rather enigmatically.
Interestingly I kept an eye on our local MP's FB page - he was doing live feeds in each ward. This has always been a safe Labour area. Didn't come to our ward - feelings are running quite high over this particular local issue that affects our ward.

Iwantacookie · 02/05/2019 19:13

I voted and seemed like quite a few had from the peek at the sheet but I have no idea weather that's the normal amount. For lunchtime though it seemed a lot (1 and half pages of a4 paper)

floraloctopus · 02/05/2019 19:14

Our local councillor is quite a decent chap and I've voted for him in the past despite his political leanings as he is very good for the town so I was kind of disappointed not to vote for him this time.

Whisky2014 · 02/05/2019 19:27

Omg tommy robinsons campaigning is insane. He has a squad of thugs following him and beating the public up! What the fuck. He's not gona be voted for is he? Is he?!

StripeyChina · 02/05/2019 19:30

PMK. Thanks for thread, Red

bellinisurge · 02/05/2019 19:30

Correction- our local MP has been in the most contentious ward (mine) and posted something on FB. Pity neither he nor the Labour incumbent bothered to leaflet us. Both studiously avoided talking about the local hot topic.

bellinisurge · 02/05/2019 19:31

@Whisky2014 , sadly that twat gets support around here.

Whisky2014 · 02/05/2019 19:32

Bloody hell, thats worrying

lonelyplanetmum · 02/05/2019 19:34

🐈

QueenOfThorns · 02/05/2019 19:34

I hope people will vote for Tommy Robinson. The NW constituency seems to be a really difficult one to recommend a Remain voting strategy for, so anything that splits the far right vote must be a good thing, surely?

floraloctopus I hope your blue rosette doesn’t turn purple overnight.

HateIsNotGood · 02/05/2019 19:37

I think it's a shame that so many have so few candidates to choose from - I noticed when I lived for a time in the SE that there were fewer candidates in local elections.

Are those reporting fewer choices living in urban areas? I can't think of a reason why there are so few candidates in some areas.

BercowsSilkTie · 02/05/2019 19:42

Where can I find out who my Eu candidates are? I'm in the NW.

Iambuffy · 02/05/2019 20:01

Pmk

BercowsSilkTie · 02/05/2019 20:02

Thanks @GeistohneGrenzen Smile

GeistohneGrenzen · 02/05/2019 20:05

Bercow you can also find out a bit about the candidates if you go to
whocanivotefor.co.uk/elections/europarl.2019-05-23/european-parliament-uk-elections/

ContinuityError · 02/05/2019 20:11

40% of Leavers feel that to be 'truly' British, it's very important that both of your parents are born in the UK.

Interesting. All the Leavers I know are married to foreigners.

TatianaLarina · 02/05/2019 20:14

May herself must believe he is guilty. Whether this is because she is indeed too heavily influenced by Sedwill is the question, but for her to sack him when she has failed to do so with other Cabinet Members so many times means she must feel there is good reason

I don’t agree that she necessarily believes he’s guilty.

He’s a thoroughly shifty little squit so it’s entirely plausible that he squealed and then lied his face off.

But, it’s equally possible he was sacked to save May’s face.

There were concerns across the board that Huawei approval may compromise our national security and lose us US security cooperation as the US official underlined. According to the Telegraph 80% of the NSC was against the move and May ignored their concerns.

On that basis, the leak could have come from anywhere, including the civil service, the security services or the military, in order to manoeuvre May to drop the plan.

A leak from outwith the cabinet over concerns about her decision’s impact on national security would be even more embarrassing than a cabinet minister going rogue. Potentially undermine her credibility and her judgment.

So, the ‘good reason’ for GW’s sacking may simply to be to save her skin. Rather than being influenced by Sedwill, he may simply be her enforcer.

We certainly haven’t been presented with much evidence against GW. Without any kind of proper enquiry whether internal or criminal - it’s hard to call. I agree with Tom Watson’s concerns:

“Where is the justice?... In what world is it acceptable that the prime minister should be the arbiter of whether a politician she believes guilty of criminal conduct in office should face a criminal investigation?”

NoWordForFluffy · 02/05/2019 20:15

I thought our remain vote in the NW was LD or Green? I'm just going to wait to be told by Remain Vote nearer the time though!

TatianaLarina · 02/05/2019 20:15

As a backbench Tory MP said:

”This seems to have been a kangaroo court reaching a decision in secret which we have no evidence to base any decision on”.

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