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Brexit

Westminstenders: A False Sense of Security

995 replies

RedToothBrush · 12/04/2019 22:34

The new exit date, unless we agree a deal sooner, is the 31st October.

It seems ages away, but its runs the risk of a false sense of security too.

The first deadline is May 22nd. The Conservative Party would dearly like to avoid European Elections. They are already liable to face wipe out in the early May local elections, as the party was at its peak in 2015 under Cameron when there were last elections.

The EU elections have the added danger of proportional representation meaning UKIP and The Brexit Party could win seats from them. This is despite polling suggesting that Ukip and the Brexit Party are unlikely to reach the high watermark of 2015 and this could lead to fewer UKIP style MEPs this time round.

The liklihood of a deal by 22nd May is low though. Especially given how well Tory - Labour talks are going. The potential for a deal seems remote in the next few weeks.

The next deadline falls on 30th June. If we do have EU elections, the next target for the Tory Party is the end of June to get a deal before the newly elected MEPs can take their seats. However if the goal is unachievable before EU elections, it seems unlikely that agreement will be found in the next 30 days unless there is a major change of heart amongst the hardcore ERG and the DUP. Labour will want to see the Tories humiliated too much.

May who says she will go, will face another wave of pressure to resign during May and June. Messages out of No10, though not May herself, had indicated an exit around 22nd May on the condition a deal was done. Crafty as ever, what May actually said was she would stay on until we reached the second stage of Brexit and had effectively left. This now falls as late as Oct 31st, thus killing plans for a summer Tory leader election.

Once we get past June though, time for a deal, any deal starts to become very limited. Parliament only sits until mid July. Here May hits another problem. The two year parliamentary session ends. There has been talk of it being extended but the DUP have firmly said no to this.

This means when parliament is due to return in September we have an issue. To start a new session May will need a majority to pass a Queens Speech. If the DUP and Hardline ERGers withdraw support in protest at May still being PM what happens? Can May win support from elsewhere. It seems unlikely.

At this point the question of a General Election looms large. And we only have six weeks from then before we exit the EU. If a GE is triggered then, the risk of no deal is extremely high, which might encourage some to support May from across the aisle to prevent parliament from being shut and losing those crucial six weeks.

The danger over the next few weeks, is there is a false sense of there being lots of time left. The reality is our real deadline might be in effect the end of the parliamentary session in mid July. After that all bets are off.

The date of 31st October isn't the one you should keep your eyes on.

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DGRossetti · 18/04/2019 16:09

Both seem to be a straight question about what is your European Parliament Voting intention

Hmm

The problem is when they try and force a "Never in a million years" response into "don't know". The classic being "Who would you rather see as Prime Minister ?" with response having to be one of "A, B, C

DGRossetti · 18/04/2019 16:12

I suspect that given how inflammatory the whole subject has been and remains (do you see what I did there Grin ) there may be an element of shy voter syndrome going on ?

prettybird · 18/04/2019 16:16

The one thing I would take from the Scottish surveys is that the LibDems are a lost cause Hmm. Vote Green or SNP if you want a Remain MEP. Or Labour if you don't want an Indy supporting MEP but want to be sure to keep the Leave party out *whether sky blue/turquoise or purple Wink).Smile

But that will obviously vary from EP constituency to EP constituency.

Clavinova · 18/04/2019 16:16

Talk about UKIP and Farage together in combination. Lots. Do not mention the Brexit Party. Ever.

Ok, got it. Wink Wink

RedToothBrush · 18/04/2019 16:18

DGR, its all hidden in the 20% of 'don't knows'

YouGov has had a high of 27% for the Brexit Party.
I note that today's poll had it at 23%. And in the detail of that, it was higher in London - but lower in all the regions than the previous poll.

Comres has the Brexit Party at 17%.

That does suggest the possibility of a shy Brexit Party effect imo.

It also perhaps would suggest that YouGov might be picking it up but Comres isn't.

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Peregrina · 18/04/2019 16:22

Let us pray for rain then on 23rd May, and hope that the Remain voters are not put off, but that the Leave voters are.

DGRossetti · 18/04/2019 16:23

I wonder if there have been any comprehensive boots-on-the-ground control surveys to gauge all of this (presumably) online frothing ?

After all, if the bots can game forums and facebook, then there's no reason they can't game surveys too.

Or, to put it another way, how many surveys do things like change the order of questions and answers in order to prevent trivial bot gaming ?

(Apropos of that, has anyone had a YouGov which slipped in a moron-trap question to make sure you are actually reading them ? I've had a couple now).

RedToothBrush · 18/04/2019 16:48

Andrew Adonis has been selected to stand for MEP for the South West for Labour.

Not sure where on the list he is though.

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MissMalice · 18/04/2019 16:49

has anyone had a YouGov which slipped in a moron-trap question to make sure you are actually reading them ? I've had a couple now

Yes I have

Tanith · 18/04/2019 16:55

One of the positives is that, now we are campaigning for the EU elections, it has hauled Farage back from campaigning in Europe and stirring up trouble there.

The far right have lost a valuable campaigner and they’re having to shell out even more money setting up a neo-UKIP party in the UK when they thought it was in the bag.

Littlespaces · 18/04/2019 17:22

Red Have you taken a look at the possible split of votes for the South West?

Looks like we have some amazing candidates.

billysboy · 18/04/2019 17:35

Go on Nigel !

DGRossetti · 18/04/2019 17:38

www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/david-cameron/news/103322/jeremy-hunt-says-david

David Cameron and George Osborne showed political "genius" by persuading the country to accept public spending cuts without triggering violent protests, Jeremy Hunt has said.

The Foreign Secretary - widely thought to be considering a run for the Conservative leadership when Theresa May steps down - heaped praise on the former prime minister and ex-chancellor in an interview with the New Statesman.

But he called on his party to challenge a growing perception among young voters that the Conservatives "don't care" about their interests.

(contd)

DGRossetti · 18/04/2019 17:39

and ...

Westminstenders: A False Sense of Security
Sunshine1239 · 18/04/2019 17:47

The euro elections don’t mean much in terms of predicting attitude. I’m from a very heavy leave area and haven’t ever voted in them and don’t know anyone who has. Turnout is always low. The referendum turnout was bigger than any norm election.

However every leave voter I know will be out for a referendum vote. People who never have or ever will vote normally will be out for a referendum

RedToothBrush · 18/04/2019 17:47

The problem for the SW is that yougov simply have a London and then 'rest of the South' catergory.

So thats the South West Constituency, the South East Constituency (which includes Farageland) and some of East of England Constituency.

Which makes the figures rather meaningless and unhelpful in this sense.

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Sunshine1239 · 18/04/2019 17:48

Plus most leave voters, myself included don’t always advertise it

TatianaLarina · 18/04/2019 17:49

David Cameron and George Osborne showed political "genius" by persuading the country to accept public spending cuts without triggering violent protests, Jeremy Hunt has said.

Perhaps he was on holiday for the 2010 riots. BoJo certainly was and didn’t want to come back. Ken Livingstone turned up tho. It’s a shame he turned out to be an anti-Semite.

Austerity is the ‘political genius’ behind Brexit.

BigChocFrenzy · 18/04/2019 18:04

I didn't notice this story last year, which would affect UK expats in those countries which won't allow double citizenship after Brexit
e.g. Germany

It does seem as always that the better off can sail through, while the others are screwed,
whether it's admin costs, income requirements, or pensioners with / without private health insurance

Whether in the Uk or in the EU, it's low income Brits who will suffer - some are already suffering - from Brexit

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-uk-citizenship-eu-nationality-foreign-nationals-passport-countries-a8369706.html3

The Home Office has hiked fees sharply for UK nationals to renounce their British nationality,
following a Brexit surge in people adopting the citizenship of other European countries.

Ministers were accused of “cashing in on Brexit” and giving Britons living on the continent a “last kick out the door”

after it emerged fees were quietly raised to more than £1,000 for a family of three.

DGRossetti · 18/04/2019 18:06

www.newstatesman.com/politics/economy/2019/04/england-s-new-enclosures-why-questions-land-ownership-are-entering

newstatesman.com
England’s new enclosures: why questions of land ownership are entering the political mainstream
By Brett Christophers
6-7 minutes

In a famous sitting of the House of Lords, Charles Wood, a former Chancellor of the Exchequer, decried the “statements made in certain newspapers, and at some public meetings, respecting the wonderfully small number of landed proprietors in this country”.

The year was 1872, but one imagines that a century-and-a-half later many Lords and other major landowners are of a similar mind. Revelations based on research by author Guy Shrubsole, published yesterday in the Guardian, show that half of English land is still owned by a wonderfully small number (25,000) of proprietors.

The great and the good didn’t like light shone on their exorbitant and exclusive landholdings in the 1870s (the vast majority of the top 100 landowners at the time also happened to be members of the House of Lords). And they don’t like it any more today.

Politically, the most significant aspect is not Shrubsole’s figures themselves, which are the outstanding product of painstaking and laborious research. Land ownership in England has become less concentrated over time, but has always been highly concentrated compared to most other European countries.

Indeed, there is an uncanny correspondence between the number of owners of half of England today and the number that reportedly owned all of England in 1861 (29,235). And, from a Scottish perspective, patterns of English land ownership look positively egalitarian: half of Scotland’s private land is today held by a remarkable 432 owners.

No, the real political significance of the story lies elsewhere, and is twofold.

First, given the convulsions in the nation’s political economy during the neoliberal era from the 1970s onwards, it is striking just how little patterns of land ownership have actually changed. Research conducted by Doreen Massey and Alejandrina Catalano in the mid-1970s showed that around 60 per cent of Britain was owned by private individuals, 20 per cent by the public sector, and 20 per cent by other institutions (mainly corporations).

If half of the 17 per cent of English land whose ownership is unaccounted for in Shrubsole’s numbers is owned by private individuals, then private individuals still own approximately 60 per cent of land (albeit English rather than British land), half a century later.

The only material shift during those 50 years has been in the locus of institutional ownership – specifically, from the public sector, whose share of the total has halved to just under 10 percent, to the private sector. The primary story in recent history, in other words, is a privatisation story.

Driven by successive administrations in Whitehall gripped by an economic logic that the private sector more efficiently manages public-sector assets, land owned by local authorities and central government bodies, including the NHS, Ministry of Defence and Forestry Commission, has been sold off en masse since the late 1970s to property companies, developers, and financial institutions. The result has been widespread social dislocation.

This constitutes the largest privatisation of a public resource in European history. So we may ask why more people didn’t know about it. This brings me to the second significant aspect of revelations around land ownership: the surprise, or even shock, that many have registered towards Shrubsole’s findings. Why were people so unaware of the UK’s highly concentrated land ownership?

In terms of overall ownership patterns, Shrubsole’s figures broadly tally (public ownership levels aside) with those produced by Massey and Catalano in the 1970s, and more recently by Kevin Cahill, not least in his epic Who Owns Britain.

Commentators today have been quick – and correct – to note the knock-on effects that land ownership has on inequality in Britain, a country where land now accounts for more than half of national net worth. But again this is, or at least should have been, a longstanding concern. As Massey and Catalano pointedly wrote of land in their 1978 book Capital and Land, “no form of wealth [in Britain] is as heavily concentrated in the hands of the richest individuals”.

So the question is better phrased: why was nobody previously listening? The answer is political: just as Charles Wood and his peers tried to hide the stark realities of English private land ownership from public view in the 1870s, so the political right – the natural home of the landed-property class – has been intent on burying the land question in all its iniquity since assuming power in Britain at the dawn of the neoliberal era.

Wood and co, incidentally, failed in their ambition. 1875 saw the publication of the monumental The Return of Owners of Land, which depicted land ownership in Britain in extraordinary detail; and for the next century the land question – who owned the land, who got to benefit from its development, and so on – was at the very centre of British political debate.

But Margaret Thatcher, one of whose first actions on taking power in 1979 was to withdraw funding from the research institution where Massey and Catalano conducted their pioneering studies of British land ownership, indubitably succeeded in shifting the public’s focus away from land. From the early 1980s, the land question disappeared from view in England and Wales – but not, notably, in land-reforming Scotland – both in politics and the media and also, for the most part, in academia.

It is finally coming more clearly into view, as people begin to realise – or relearn – the centrality of land ownership in the UK not just for economic inequality, but for the very nature of the national polity and society.

Brett Christophers is a professor of geography at Uppsala University and the author of The New Enclosure: The Appropriation of Public Land in Neoliberal Britain (Verso, 2018).

Littlespaces · 18/04/2019 18:08

Thanks RedToothBrush.

I'll keep an eye out for more information for the SW.

BigChocFrenzy · 18/04/2019 18:20

For some Labour supporters, especially Lexiters, Brexit is an opportunity to destroy the Tory party longterm

The consequences of Brexit

  • damage is does to the economy and the opportunity it gives to the far right in the following chaos -
are all acceptable collateral damage

For Remainers in the EP elections, imo, the priority should be supporting the Remain candidates with the best chance & record.

For me, that would generally include supporting Remain MEPs who have resigned / been expelled from the Tory party over their pro-EU views,
e.g. Richard Ainsworth and Julie Girling, who have been very effective MEPs

The LDems - at least until Brexit is resolved - look to be irrelevant and wasted votes
Cameron looks to have succeeded in destroying them as an effective political force for many years
i.e. he did to the Ldems what Labour now hope to do to the Tories

I would refuse to support Labour if the party policy is Brexit and / or the MEP candidate views are to carry out Brexit

Ditto in a GE

Their aims are not mine

DGRossetti · 18/04/2019 18:26

I would refuse to support Labour if the party policy is Brexit and / or the MEP candidate views are to carry out Brexit

I wonder if we're going to end up with a political equivalent of the US' GM labelling laws, where it's illegal to disseminate information about a candidates views on Brexit ?

C'mon ... surely somebody has to tell me I'm being silly now ?

BigChocFrenzy · 18/04/2019 18:28

DG This graphic of land ownership shows:

only 5% of land is owned by home-owners
30% by the aristocracy (for centuries)
another 1.4% by the royal family
18% corporations
17% oligarchs & bankers, i.e. the new money "aristocracy" to be added for the future

and the 17% "unaccounted", where noone officially knows is thought to be mainly land passed down the aristocracy or royals
i.e. add most of that 17% to the 31.4% of land we know they own

Westminstenders: A False Sense of Security
BigChocFrenzy · 18/04/2019 18:32

DG No, it'll be lies and spin as usual, to drown out the facst, rather than openly banning them.

I expect Labour will try to hoodwink Remainers again into voting for them ...
and then Lexiters and rightwing Brexiters alike will afterwards claim that 80% of people support Brexit