Westminstenders: A False Sense of Security

[RedToothBrush]

The new exit date, unless we agree a deal sooner, is the 31st October.

It seems ages away, but its runs the risk of a false sense of security too.

The first deadline is May 22nd. The Conservative Party would dearly like to avoid European Elections. They are already liable to face wipe out in the early May local elections, as the party was at its peak in 2015 under Cameron when there were last elections.

The EU elections have the added danger of proportional representation meaning UKIP and The Brexit Party could win seats from them. This is despite polling suggesting that Ukip and the Brexit Party are unlikely to reach the high watermark of 2015 and this could lead to fewer UKIP style MEPs this time round.

The liklihood of a deal by 22nd May is low though. Especially given how well Tory - Labour talks are going. The potential for a deal seems remote in the next few weeks.

The next deadline falls on 30th June. If we do have EU elections, the next target for the Tory Party is the end of June to get a deal before the newly elected MEPs can take their seats. However if the goal is unachievable before EU elections, it seems unlikely that agreement will be found in the next 30 days unless there is a major change of heart amongst the hardcore ERG and the DUP. Labour will want to see the Tories humiliated too much.

May who says she will go, will face another wave of pressure to resign during May and June. Messages out of No10, though not May herself, had indicated an exit around 22nd May on the condition a deal was done. Crafty as ever, what May actually said was she would stay on until we reached the second stage of Brexit and had effectively left. This now falls as late as Oct 31st, thus killing plans for a summer Tory leader election.

Once we get past June though, time for a deal, any deal starts to become very limited. Parliament only sits until mid July. Here May hits another problem. The two year parliamentary session ends. There has been talk of it being extended but the DUP have firmly said no to this.

This means when parliament is due to return in September we have an issue. To start a new session May will need a majority to pass a Queens Speech. If the DUP and Hardline ERGers withdraw support in protest at May still being PM what happens? Can May win support from elsewhere. It seems unlikely.

At this point the question of a General Election looms large. And we only have six weeks from then before we exit the EU. If a GE is triggered then, the risk of no deal is extremely high, which might encourage some to support May from across the aisle to prevent parliament from being shut and losing those crucial six weeks.

The danger over the next few weeks, is there is a false sense of there being lots of time left. The reality is our real deadline might be in effect the end of the parliamentary session in mid July. After that all bets are off.

The date of 31st October isn't the one you should keep your eyes on.

Britain Elects
@britainelects
European Parliament voting intention:

LAB: 33% (+8)
CON: 18% (-6)
BREX: 17% (+17)
CHUK: 9% (+9)
LDEM: 9% (+2)
UKIP: 5% (-22)
GRN: 5% (-2)

Bit of a turnaround since yesterday

Red I did a search on "sondage no deal" in France and found that older people and men are more inclined to favour no deal. Where have I heard that before?
I couldn't find any details about education and deal /no deal, but I suspect the no deal view would be lower in this group. Overall it was still less than half the population in favour of no deal. The people I talk to never say they are in favour of no deal but I guess the ones to whom I teach English tend to be anglophile and my friends and neighbours know how I feel, so wouldn't say it anyway!
I certainly think the view here is much more nuanced that the English press would suggest.
Don't know what the other French dwellers think?

Thanks for posting those predictions, Red - finally I think I understand the d'Hondt system!

In the long run a Tory Party split would surely suit Chuk as they could then peel off centrist Tories and Labour MPs?

The EU elections are not about the long run of Westminster are they? These particular ones are about sending a message to Westminster and The EU about how we feel about brexit - and anything that lets the Brexit party hoover up seats, because the remain vote is split, is sending the wrong message. So this:
You could argue that they may deprive both of enough votes to win Brexit Party incremental seats which would strengthen the chances of a Tory Party split.
If I'm understanding what you're saying correctly, would be an absolute fucking disaster of monumental proportions. This isn't about the future of the tory party - it is about the future of Britain in Europe. The most important thing is keeping the number of brexit party seats as low as possible.

then by standing they increase the overall Remain % vote even if they don't gain seats.

Unfortunately no one - and I mean no one - from Guy Verhofstadt to Michel Barnier to Theresa May to Nigel Farage to your average leave voter in the street is going to give a flying fuck what the combined remain percentage was - if the actual result was a majority of seats to the brexit party. No one would listen. No one would care that more people technically had voted in support of remain. And we'd have the far right in the EU until we get kicked out in October or before - and everyone would be glad to see us go.
That's why it is so important that the remain cause co-ordinates itself, no matter how frigging logistically difficult it is.

Scotland (based on last time's electorate figures).

Seat 1
CON - 134,348
LAB - 214,957
LD - 67,174
SNP - 470,219
GREEN - 174,653
UKIP - 53,739
BREXIT - 174,653
CHANGE - 40,304
SNP WIN SEAT

Seat 2
CON - 134,348
LAB - 214,957
LD - 67,174
SNP - 235,110
GREEN - 174,653
UKIP - 53,739
BREXIT - 174,653
CHANGE - 40,304
SNP WIN SEAT

Seats 3
CON - 134,348
LAB - 214,957
LD - 67,174
SNP - 156,740
GREEN - 174,653
UKIP - 53,739
BREXIT - 174,653
CHANGE - 40,304
LABOUR WIN SEAT

Seats 4 & 5
CON - 134,348
LAB - 214,957
LD - 67,174
SNP - 156,740
GREEN - 174,653 (87,326)
UKIP - 53,739
BREXIT - 174,653 (87,326)
CHANGE - 40,304
CHANGE - 33,135
GREEN WIN ONE and BREXIT WIN ONE
(Not clear which way round it is likely to be)

Seat 6
CON - 134,348
LAB - 214,957
LD - 67,174
SNP - 156,740
GREEN - 87,326
UKIP - 53,739
BREXIT - 87,326
CHANGE - 40,304

26,000 is roughly a 2% error of margin for reference.

Those final three seats are between Green, Brexit, SNP and Cons. I'd have to argue that on balance it does seem to favour the SNP and Greens getting those seats rather than Brexit / Cons.

The Cons plus Brexit based on last turnout would be 309,001 votes - if you split that in two its 154,500 which less than that 156,740 that the SNP are coming out with on that projection.

UKIP got 140,534 last time - this was the mark for the last seat. The Conservatives got 231,330. Thats 371,864 votes (and remember the SNP only got two seats off 389,503 votes last time).

This time UKIP plus the Brexit Party are only clocking up 228,392 votes. Add in the projected Conservative Party vote and that makes 362,740. There's only realistically a maximum of 2 seats that can be won from those kind of figures (181,370 votes per seat) and thats only if the split falls just right.

The difference between 2014 (371,864) and the projected 2019 Brexit + UKIP + Cons (362,740) is just 9,124. Thats less than 1% of the electorate. So even if you have a bunch of tribal pro-remain Conservatives who stick with the party, you still aren't having much of a stay at home effect from that. And where are those missing 9,124?

On the flip of that, you have Labour. Last time Labour got 348,219 votes. This time its projecting based on last times turnout to be 214,957 votes. The Greens on the other hand got 108,305 votes and this time are looking like they will get roughly 174,653 votes. Thats a pick up of 66,348. Thats about 5% of last times electorate. Its doable. And consistant with national polling issues for Labour in Scotland.

And here's the crucial bit. The SNP look to clocking in at roughly 470,219 votes. Last time they got 389,503 missing that third seat by 10,699 votes. Thats less than 1%.

The LDs haven't picked up any votes (LD last time 95,319 / This 67,174). They look like they have split between the LDs and Change LD plus Change = 107,478. (And strangly enough if you add in those 9,124 missing 2014 ConKip voters to the 2014 voters you get 104,443 which isn't wide of the mark)

Which suggests the only real movement is a disillusionment of Labour voters - either to the Greens or the to SNP.

Turnout on this is everything, but if you stack the numbers up based on last time's actual turnout out, it really does suggest that its more likely to go more pro-remain simply because of how the system works and where the vote looks to be moving and how many you can't account for based on a similar turnout to last time.

The trend across the country is a backlash against the Conservatives. Last time they got 17%. YouGov is projecting just 10%. 12.5% is where they need to be at have a half decent shot at a seat. The issue for them is that the Brexit Party is at 13% and UKIP is at 4%. That split is impossible to get 3 seats from. And very difficult to get 2 from.

Now, its important to say that the YouGov figures exclude anyone who is not sure how they will vote. The trend on this generally favours the left rather than the right - as they are less likely to know how to vote - and these voters are not added on until very late in polling.

YouGov is also showing that Remain voters for the whole country are much more likely to vote. It has 53% of all Remain voters definitely voting against 50% of all leave voters. In contrast it has 5% of Remain voters definitely NOT voting versus 18% of all Leave Voters.

Whether that holds true and whether Leave voters do indeed stay home is the big thing. However, given Scotland's pro-remain bias this, again, does tend to suggest a stack votes up in Remain leaning parties.

YouGov could be wildly off the mark, but its interesting. There's not a lot in it. But it does favour Remain and I think that 3 SNP, 1 Lab, 1 Green, 1 Brexit or Con is very possible.

Are those voting intention figures wrong? BREX going from 27% to 17% isn't +17. And UKIP going from 7% to 5% isn't -22.

whymewhynow's post from Britain Elects refers to a ComRes poll. Yesterday's poll was a YouGov poll.

YouGov have a better track record generally.

Ah, I see. Thanks Red.

Following that piece put up by DGR, I wish there was some way of transferring the feeling of panic that UK citizens in the EU and EU citizens in the UK feel whenever any 'official' envelope appears in your post box. Fortunately mine yesterday was a letter wanting me to send a photo for a medical card but the 'sick' feeling is awful.

Btw, if you are in the North East and have any notion whatsoever of voting anything but Labour if you are pro-Remain DON'T.

Its Labour, Brexit Party and the Conservatives. Its hard to see it being anything else. The d'Hondt voting system favours the smaller voting percentages in parties ONLY in constituencies where there are a larger number of seats. The North East is a particularly small constituency with just 3 seats. Thus you need a higher vote share to get any seats than you do in a constituency with 10 seats.

Last time
Labour - 221,988 (110,994 per seat) x2 seats
UKIP - 177,660 x 1 seat
Con - 107,733
LDs - 36,093

I don't think Labour can win a third seat. The best that can be hoped for is to keep UKIP/Brexit Party out of two seats which is possible.

Red I think the same logic applies not just to the NE but anywhere where a combination of UKIP / Con currently hold most of the seats, which is everywhere except London and Scotland.

howabout, I'm looking through. I don't think its quite as simple as that.

For example, Wales

Wales last time (4 seats)
Labour - 206,332
UKIP - 201,983
Con - 127,742
Plaid - 111,864

Labour should win one seat again. Its possible they could win two.
The Brexit Party could go 2 seats, 1 seat or 0 seats depending on how the UKIP / Con vote splits.
Plaid could be in trouble. They need a good remain showing, and to ideally beat the Conservatives by a narrow margin (to stop the Brexit Party getting too many votes)
Cons also need a bit of luck. I think they may struggle to get a seat.

Two seats for either Labour or the Brexit Party (or both) sits at about the 220,000 mark. Plaid and the Cons really need to top 125,000 to guarentee they keep a seat.

Thats finely balanced.

You could go either Labour or Plaid from a pro-remain pov.

Wales could go 3 pro-remain leaning or it could end up 3 pro-leave.

If I see a Wales only poll I'll have a good look at it, but Plaid votes could be valuable if the split for UKIP/Brexit/Con has a similar split to Scotland.

Have Labour decided if they are Remain or Leave yet?
Or
Are they going with the line that they would like to move away from that and not talk about it?

If push comes to shove even though Labour is really a Leave party, I would still rather see them with a majority of seats in the EP rather than the Tories or Brexit. They would at least ally themselves with a left leaning bloc.

Depressing for Wales - I really don't want to vote for a pro Brexit party, but even greater is my wish to keep Brexit/UKIP out. Thank you Red.

Have Labour decided if they are Remain or Leave yet?

I think they are for whatever the people are for ...

If I see one more thing on twitter about get one remain MEP per constituency, I may scream.
MEPs are elected by region, everyone has between 3 and 10 MEPs.
As a voter, you only have one vote.

www.europarl.europa.eu/unitedkingdom/en/european-elections/uk_meps.html

Try again

I might just scream at MN instead

I think they are for whatever the people are for ...

Oh, you mean the 52% of people who matter? Not the 48% that no one cares about. They’re pro-Leave then.

FWIW, I'm just looking at a YouGov poll for EU voting intention that was published yesterday v another one published today. With presumably the same method.

Yesterdays was done 15th - 16th April.
Todays was done 16th - 17th April.

Yesterday's nationally
Con - 15%
Lab - 22%
LD - 9%
SNP/Plaid - 4%
Green - 10%
UKIP - 7%
Brexit - 27%
Change - 6%

Today's nationally
Con - 17%
Lab - 22%
LD - 9%
SNP / Plaid - 5%
Green - 10%
UKIP - 6%
Brexit - 23%
Change 8%

There's also some pretty big differences between the two on a regional basis.
Scotland yesterday
Con - 10%
Lab - 16%
LD - 5%
SNP - 35%
Green - 13%
UKIP - 4%
Brexit - 13%
Change 3%

Today's
Con - 10%
Lab - 11%
LD - 7%
SNP - 42%
Green - 13%
UKIP - 6%
Brexit - 9%
Change - 4%

Today's scottish polling by yougov would have the following result:
Seat1 = SNP, Seat 2 = SNP, Seat 3 = SNP, Seat 4 = Green, Seat 5 = Lab, Seat 6 = SNP

London is also ALL over the place!!!

Yesterday
Con - 17%
Lab - 25%
LD - 13%
Green - 16%
UKIP - 8%
Brexit - 15%
Change - 5%

Today
Con - 14%
Lab - 26%
LD - 14%
Green - 11%
UKIP - 3%
Brexit - 19%
Change - 11%
This would be a result of
Seat 1 = Lab, Seat 2 = Brexit, Seat 3/4 = Con/LD toss up, Seat 5 = Lab, Seat 6/7 = Green/Change toss up, Seat 8 Brexit

This election is all about Brexit Party awareness. Nothing else. Not even Remain turnout imo. The more Farage gets his face on TV the worse this goes.

I'd want to see the question set for that YouGov before the answer make sense. Or at the very least know who was paying for it.

Yesterday's YouGov (commissioned by People's Vote)

Today's YouGov (commissioned by The Times)

Both seem to be a straight question about what is your European Parliament Voting intention.

Somehow, once the Local Elections are over, the Remain camp has to get its act into gear.

The BBC is a washout because it's wall to wall Farage. However, I then remind myself that at the last election the BBC and Media generally were wall to wall anti Corbyn and pro - May, but she didn't get the stonking majority she expected.

So it's not over yet.

Hint for Remain Parties.

Talk about UKIP and Farage together in combination. Lots. Do not mention the Brexit Party. Ever.