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Brexit

Westminstenders: A False Sense of Security

995 replies

RedToothBrush · 12/04/2019 22:34

The new exit date, unless we agree a deal sooner, is the 31st October.

It seems ages away, but its runs the risk of a false sense of security too.

The first deadline is May 22nd. The Conservative Party would dearly like to avoid European Elections. They are already liable to face wipe out in the early May local elections, as the party was at its peak in 2015 under Cameron when there were last elections.

The EU elections have the added danger of proportional representation meaning UKIP and The Brexit Party could win seats from them. This is despite polling suggesting that Ukip and the Brexit Party are unlikely to reach the high watermark of 2015 and this could lead to fewer UKIP style MEPs this time round.

The liklihood of a deal by 22nd May is low though. Especially given how well Tory - Labour talks are going. The potential for a deal seems remote in the next few weeks.

The next deadline falls on 30th June. If we do have EU elections, the next target for the Tory Party is the end of June to get a deal before the newly elected MEPs can take their seats. However if the goal is unachievable before EU elections, it seems unlikely that agreement will be found in the next 30 days unless there is a major change of heart amongst the hardcore ERG and the DUP. Labour will want to see the Tories humiliated too much.

May who says she will go, will face another wave of pressure to resign during May and June. Messages out of No10, though not May herself, had indicated an exit around 22nd May on the condition a deal was done. Crafty as ever, what May actually said was she would stay on until we reached the second stage of Brexit and had effectively left. This now falls as late as Oct 31st, thus killing plans for a summer Tory leader election.

Once we get past June though, time for a deal, any deal starts to become very limited. Parliament only sits until mid July. Here May hits another problem. The two year parliamentary session ends. There has been talk of it being extended but the DUP have firmly said no to this.

This means when parliament is due to return in September we have an issue. To start a new session May will need a majority to pass a Queens Speech. If the DUP and Hardline ERGers withdraw support in protest at May still being PM what happens? Can May win support from elsewhere. It seems unlikely.

At this point the question of a General Election looms large. And we only have six weeks from then before we exit the EU. If a GE is triggered then, the risk of no deal is extremely high, which might encourage some to support May from across the aisle to prevent parliament from being shut and losing those crucial six weeks.

The danger over the next few weeks, is there is a false sense of there being lots of time left. The reality is our real deadline might be in effect the end of the parliamentary session in mid July. After that all bets are off.

The date of 31st October isn't the one you should keep your eyes on.

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RedToothBrush · 18/04/2019 11:08

Scotland which is currently 2 SNP, 2 Lab, 1 Con & 1 UKIP looks like its going to go 3 SNP, 1 Lab, 1 Green and 1 Brexit.

Which surprises me somewhat.

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Caucasianchalkcircles · 18/04/2019 11:17

mathanxiety i absolutely agree that there has been no discourse about what a future UK will look like post brexit. Never heard anyone ask farrage, rees mogg etc how they envisage society will change. When we don't have to comply with EU environmental, employment and health and safety legislation what exactly will we replace them with ? Don't leavers consider that important, particularly traditional working class labour voters who feel a longstanding antipathy towards the tories ? How can they back people like that whose policies will be undoubtedly very right wing.

prettybird · 18/04/2019 11:27

MShip - I suppose you could ask about a gender balanced list for the EP elections - but also the issue that there are two sitting SNP MEPs - the higher profile one of which was second on the list last time around confused][(no idea who/what order the list will be this time around).

prettybird · 18/04/2019 11:30

Red - I posted about my Hmm about the projections for the Scottish EP constituency last night - even though I would love it it be 4 pro-EU MEPs Grin to 2 anti-EU (according to party policy - not saying that the Labour MEP would be ) Confused

RedToothBrush · 18/04/2019 11:37

Pretty, just nipping out in the next ten mins, but I'll post the rounds for the Scottish seats. If YouGov's polling is credible the first five seats look reasonably clear. Its only really the final one that looks like it possibly could go another way and thats between the SNP and the Cons.

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howabout · 18/04/2019 12:17

So if Labour went full Remain do people think all the LibDem / Green and Chuk support in London would fold into them? I don't think so as Crobyn seems to be the main sticking point for most Chukkers and LibDems and Greens get a seat on their own merits already and possibly 2.

Similar logic applies in Scotland where it would be impossible for them to out Remain any of SNP / LibDem / Green.

In any other part of the country they are at even greater risk of losing voters from Remain splitters plus disillusioned Brexit voters either staying at home or voting with Galloway.

Mistigri · 18/04/2019 12:40

I think if Labour went PV/ full remain there would be a big tactical Labour vote among people who would otherwise vote tigger or green.

If I still had a vote in London the only thing that would stop me voting Labour would be my vote being interpreted as a pro-Brexit vote. The London Labour MEPs are doing a good job.

NoWordForFluffy · 18/04/2019 12:46

If Labour went full remain I could actually bring myself to vote for them, what with the SATs promise too. Corbyn doesn't want to carry on much longer, so I'm sure he'll go in the near future. Thank god.

Sostenueto · 18/04/2019 12:51

Good a d bad news today. DGD coming home today but not out of woods as platelet count now only up to 10,000 so still in danger of internal bleeds. Sri Lanka trip possibly OK if platelets rise to above 40,000 and are stable. They are not satisfied at rate of growth of platelets and has to see consultant on weekly basis. If they are still slow next week they will be taking bone marrow samples. Also she has adult version of ITP meaning its a lifetime condition unless anything sinister in bone marrow and they can cure.Sad
Its been a real shock to us all. You never know what's round the corner. Good health to all and thanks for your support which has been wonderful and gratefully received.Flowers

TheMShip · 18/04/2019 12:59

We requested the MP, who is on the HoC science and technology committee, to publicize the brain drain due to Brexit uncertainty. They seemed very interested and asked us to send case studies.

dontcallmelen · 18/04/2019 13:02

Sos glad dgd is home & least she is going to be monitored closely hopefully she will continue to improve 🤞🏻💐

TheMShip · 18/04/2019 13:16

Fx for your granddaughter Sos. Flowers

TheWoollybacksWife · 18/04/2019 13:22

Sos my sister has lived with ITP for 50+ years. She's had a couple of bad flare ups in that time (mostly when stressed) but is otherwise well. She is closely monitored by her consultant and has to have regular blood tests but is doing fine.

Best of luck to your DGD

Hasenstein · 18/04/2019 13:25

Sos Wishing the very best to your DGD and strength to you in coping with such a hard situation.

Icantreachthepretzels · 18/04/2019 13:37

Hope your DGD improves soon Sos - in time for her trip.

I'm beginning to think change UK should just pull out of the race (with respect to those westminsterenders who have applied to be their MEPs). If they're not predicted to win any seats then they are just there to split the remain vote. If they're serious about changing how politics works then it's time to put their money where their mouth is and endorse Lib dem/ green candidates where they are most likely to win. Otherwise they are still in the same winner takes all mindset of the rest of them.
They're just starting out - and whereas Farage has basically created a religion, whose purpose for existence will cease to be the minute they get what they want - if the remain cause actually gets anywhere then Change UK have the next 5 years to establish themselves and then field their own candidates. If we're out on October 31st it will have been a money pit to them anyway. They have almost nothing to gain - but everything to lose - by insisting on standing.

Peregrina · 18/04/2019 13:38

Flowers from me too, Sos. I hope she continues to get better even if slowly.

As you say, you never do know what is round the corner.

howabout · 18/04/2019 13:52

Icantreach for your argument to hold it assumes that people minded to vote Chuk would otherwise vote Green or LibDem. I don't think this is necessarily the case. If they are in fact drawing support from disillusioned Tories / Labour who would otherwise pick Party over Remain then by standing they increase the overall Remain % vote even if they don't gain seats. You could argue that they may deprive both of enough votes to win Brexit Party incremental seats which would strengthen the chances of a Tory Party split.

In the long run a Tory Party split would surely suit Chuk as they could then peel off centrist Tories and Labour MPs?

PestyMachtubernahme · 18/04/2019 13:53

Julie Girling is running for the TIGs (i'm going to struggle to call them Change UK ) in the SW
The is a small c conservative, got thrown out the party for voting that the UK was not ready to move forward in Brexit talks.
She is very centrist in politics and sits with the Europeans People's Party Group.

Richard Ashworth is also running for the TIGs

The SW has a strong Green MEP Molly Scott Cato and a strong TIG.

Peregrina · 18/04/2019 13:55

I agree with Icantreach. Change UK is too new, and I doubt whether they have enough money to fight the EU elections. The would be better off spending their time getting established at Westminster.

The EU elections are difficult - Catherine Bearder the LibDem MEP for the south east is good, but so is the Green or the Labour candidate, and even the one time Tory Richard Ashworth is OK. He, I imagine, won't be asked to stand again.

So personally I could vote for one of three parties quite happily if they keep the same candidates. I know the LibDems have Catherine Bearder in their No 1 position, so if the LibDems get a seat it will go to her.

The main thing is to keep Farage and his Brexit party out, and UKIP.

DGRossetti · 18/04/2019 13:58

Article in full

www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-immigration-settled-status-france-eu-citizens-a8874646.html

independent.co.uk
Thanks to Brexit, I've got 30 days to leave my home in France
Emma Lawrence in France
9-11 minutes

I have 30 days to leave my home thanks to Brexit.

Last week everything we’d been working for since we moved to France turned upside down. Two letters arrived from the French government: one for me, one for my partner. The letters were not unexpected as we were waiting for news on our visa application. What was unexpected was what the letters said.

In anticipation of life after Brexit, it has been strongly recommended that British people living in France apply for their “Carte de Sejour" residency permit. The French government has emphasised how important it is, as too has the British government, the newspapers, and all the many organisations that exist to offer advice and support to the two hundred thousand or so people that call this country their home. What hasn’t been quite so strongly explained, however, is the need to meet the income threshold set by the French government.
We’ll tell you what’s true. You can form your own view.

From 15p €0.18 $0.18 USD 0.27 a day, more exclusives, analysis and extras.

As current EU citizens, Brits are allowed to spend more than three months in France providing they meet the conditions for legal residence. These conditions dictate that you must either work, be self-employed, able to live self-sufficiently on your own resources or be in education. So far so good, until you factor in that France is one of the few European countries that stipulates a fixed amount which it regards as “sufficient resources”.

However, those “sufficient resources” vary according to your situation. And, depending on where in France you live, you can be held hostage to the decision makers at your local “prefecture” (the equivalent of a county council). Indeed part of the challenge that many Brits are facing is that French governance is devolved to the local areas and many of these prefectures have a reputation for acting independently and differently to each other.

The rules state that if you are single you must earn at least €550.93 a month, a figure that increases to €943.28 if you have a child. Likewise for couples, you must earn €826.40 as a household or €991.68 if you have a child. Pensioners must have an income of €868.20 if they are single or €1,347.88 if they are in a couple. Rumour has it these figures will increase year-on-year.

Up until recently, France has rarely followed income checks on EU citizens and so many self-supporting British people have been happily living here, albeit surviving on less than what the France deems acceptable. People just like us.

We have lived in France since September 2016. We moved here with our two children with dreams of buying our own home with some land, so we could grow our own food, learn the language, and – hopefully, in future – gain citizenship. We don’t earn a lot right now but have more than sufficient savings to live off while we build up our businesses. We pay our taxes, our children go to school here, we’re contributing to the system.

But that wasn’t enough for our local prefecture, which last week wrote to us to tell us that we had 30 days to leave the country. The reasons they gave is that there was no proof that James is self-supporting (we were not made aware of any missing information from our application – if we had we’d have provided it) and that my business does not make enough. Between us we need to prove that we have €1175.00 per month to live on.

The feeling of panic I got from the moment I opened those letters is still with me now. It sits in the pit of my stomach as a constant reminder of the nightmare we are now living.

We are determined to fight this every step of the way. The British Embassy has picked up our case and is talking to the French government on our behalf. We are confident that we do meet the rules and that actually this has been a mistake – a perfect storm of an incomplete dossier and a prefecture under pressure to process all the applications (as many as 30 a day in our area.)

The response to our case has been overwhelming. We’ve received countless messages of support and offers of help. There are the naysayers, of course, and people who have been quick to judge, but on the whole people are stunned by what has happened. Many, who have been burying their heads in the sand are now waking up to the reality of Brexit for Brits living abroad.

Our story has also encouraged others to share theirs and we know that we are not the only ones experiencing this situation. According to the Remain in France Together group, in 2017 some 3367 orders to leave France were issued to EU citizens because of failure to meet the legal residence conditions. It is unclear how many of those were British citizens but you can be sure that those numbers will rise as more Brits apply for their Carte de Sejours in anticipation of Brexit. This is in contrast to the UK government which has decided not to include means testing as a condition of applying for settled status.

We now have a very clear understanding of what is required and what is at stake. The lesson for us is that we can never take for granted our obligations to our host countries. Lucky for us we can challenge the decision, but others will not be so fortunate.

Life is about to get tougher for many UK citizens in the EU and vice versa. As the saying goes, “you don’t know what you’ve got 'til it’s gone”

PestyMachtubernahme · 18/04/2019 13:59

Richard Ashworth has been an MEP since 2004. He is standing for TIGs in the SE.
He is a very strong remain candidate .
He has principles which is a rare thing in politicians.

dontcallmelen · 18/04/2019 14:03

I sent Richard Ashworth an email few weeks ago, got back a really lovely personal reply from him.

Peregrina · 18/04/2019 14:07

Ah, didn't realise that Richard Ashworth was standing. I wish we had STV and then he could have had one of my votes, but we don't, so he won't get one.

Mistigri · 18/04/2019 14:07

That Independent story about the U.K. couple in FR doesn't surprise me. Prepared to bet she lives in an area with a high Le Pen vote.

My DH was turned down on the basis of resources in 1998, with £60k in the bank but no income (was doing up a properly while I worked FT). We had to get married so he could get a resident's card.

PestyMachtubernahme · 18/04/2019 14:11

twitter.com/JohneditorLDN/status/1118797088555458561

The news is quite fresh Peregina

@RichardAshMEP today stating that the campaign for @ChangeUKSupport has just begun and the fight for the centre ground of politics is now in full swing ahead of the Euro elections
4 hours ago

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