Westminstenders: A False Sense of Security

[RedToothBrush]

The new exit date, unless we agree a deal sooner, is the 31st October.

It seems ages away, but its runs the risk of a false sense of security too.

The first deadline is May 22nd. The Conservative Party would dearly like to avoid European Elections. They are already liable to face wipe out in the early May local elections, as the party was at its peak in 2015 under Cameron when there were last elections.

The EU elections have the added danger of proportional representation meaning UKIP and The Brexit Party could win seats from them. This is despite polling suggesting that Ukip and the Brexit Party are unlikely to reach the high watermark of 2015 and this could lead to fewer UKIP style MEPs this time round.

The liklihood of a deal by 22nd May is low though. Especially given how well Tory - Labour talks are going. The potential for a deal seems remote in the next few weeks.

The next deadline falls on 30th June. If we do have EU elections, the next target for the Tory Party is the end of June to get a deal before the newly elected MEPs can take their seats. However if the goal is unachievable before EU elections, it seems unlikely that agreement will be found in the next 30 days unless there is a major change of heart amongst the hardcore ERG and the DUP. Labour will want to see the Tories humiliated too much.

May who says she will go, will face another wave of pressure to resign during May and June. Messages out of No10, though not May herself, had indicated an exit around 22nd May on the condition a deal was done. Crafty as ever, what May actually said was she would stay on until we reached the second stage of Brexit and had effectively left. This now falls as late as Oct 31st, thus killing plans for a summer Tory leader election.

Once we get past June though, time for a deal, any deal starts to become very limited. Parliament only sits until mid July. Here May hits another problem. The two year parliamentary session ends. There has been talk of it being extended but the DUP have firmly said no to this.

This means when parliament is due to return in September we have an issue. To start a new session May will need a majority to pass a Queens Speech. If the DUP and Hardline ERGers withdraw support in protest at May still being PM what happens? Can May win support from elsewhere. It seems unlikely.

At this point the question of a General Election looms large. And we only have six weeks from then before we exit the EU. If a GE is triggered then, the risk of no deal is extremely high, which might encourage some to support May from across the aisle to prevent parliament from being shut and losing those crucial six weeks.

The danger over the next few weeks, is there is a false sense of there being lots of time left. The reality is our real deadline might be in effect the end of the parliamentary session in mid July. After that all bets are off.

The date of 31st October isn't the one you should keep your eyes on.

I think the lesson from Farage is that Remain needs to martial their forces, stop running scared, and actively campaign.

Is it just me, or is the statement by Nancy Pelosi the silent nocturnal canine in the picture ? Making the GFA so much more than a mere treaty.

If the people paying for Brexit were hoping to sneak it under the wire before anyone realised (or, to be more accurate, before anyone cared ) then it's now clear they aren't getting the Brexit they paid for.

I envisage a lot of citizens of Birmingham who have listened to Farage will be disillusioned in due course when he fails to deliver.

I think you underestimate how depressing Birmingham is to start with.

DGR - that may be so, I don't know Birmingham very well.

Birmingham had potential but was 'modernised' by the concrete yoke of the (old?) Bull ring centre. At which point it sank into further decline.

Ultimately, Birmingham isn't London .

Still, on the bright side, it would be hard to find a better location, given our situation.

www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/us-politicians-and-brexiteers-clash-on-concocted-border-issue-1.3862750?mode=amp
US politicians and Brexiteers clash on ‘concocted Border issue’
Visiting delegation attempts to disabuse ERG of ‘conspiracy-type thinking’ in heated talks

The visiting US congressional delegation had a forceful and at times heated encounter with pro-Brexit UK hardliners as the American politicians rejected claims that the Border was a “concocted” issue.

The delegation, led by the Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi, met members of the pro-Brexit European Research Group, led by Conservative MP Jacob Rees-Mogg, on Monday. The meeting was part of their mission to the UK and Ireland this week to stress that there was no chance of a US-UK trade deal if Brexit damaged the Northern Irish peace process.

Democratic congressman Brendan Boyle, one of the members of the travelling delegation, said the US politicians had a “frank discussion” with the ERG that was “a good, sincere, honest exchange”.

So the ERG are winning friends and influencing people by telling Americans they are wrong

Oh dear, talk about shooting yourself in the foot.

Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear .....

If 'rent a gob' Farage can get half a party together what the hell are the 'remain' MPs up to?

They are probably campaigning and fund raising just as hard as Farage - but more legally.

But the rise of the centre is not exactly a talking point right now, whereas Farage's media pals are all over any story about the rise of the far right because it fits their narrative.

I seem to recall that earlier this week the BBC ran an article about a right wing surge somewhere in Europe - when the party concerned got a lower vote share than in the previous election).

Rob Ford on twitter is good on this phenomenon (U.K. media talking up far right parties without good reason).

That article about the way the US politicians are talking about GFA gives me great hope.
Hope for what, I don't know. Other than extinguishing the spectre of No Deal once and for all.

I think some of you are a bit harsh. Regardless of whether MPs are well paid or not, burn out is burn out is burn out and it's well-proven that stressed / anxious people aren't best-placed to make good decisions.

A short break of a week may mean the difference between break down or not.

I thought Mumsnet posters were generally sympathetic / empathetic to people with anxiety, stress and mental health issues. Even if a large minority of MPs are utter arseholes, that doesn't mean we shouldn't have sympathy for those decent people who are MPs and who are trying to do the right thing for the country. Because there are some of those, even if it's pricks like Mark Francois who keep grabbing the headlines and TV coverage.

I have no problem with them having a holiday. In fact, I hope TM's walking holiday in Wales involves feet up with a gin and tonic.

That article about the way the US politicians are talking about GFA gives me great hope. Hope for what, I don't know. Other than extinguishing the spectre of No Deal once and for all.

It's fascinating to speculate on what goes unseen. If a tad unhealthy .

I'm imagining that the brains behind Brexit (bear with me ...) have managed to hoodwink (that is lie to) quite a few people in order to get the backing (money) that they did. I'm wondering if some of the ideas of a mythical UK-US trade deal were discussed by glossing over the GFA. We know how disingenuous Brexiteers have been in public - they've probably told bigger whoppers behind closed doors.

Anyway, I am imagining quite a few Brexit backers who were persuaded that things like the GFA could "be managed" are now rethinking and (more importantly) coming to a conclusion that even if Brexit were to happen it would no longer bring the promised returns.

Wasn't Suez also planned with an assumption of US buy-in ? What happened to "project Suez" once Eisenhower told France and Britain to get with the programme ?

Saw my first UKIP placard in someone's garden.

That was depressing.

OH was saying how British MP's, at the moment, seem to be such dodgy, thick effers. I had to point out how the dodgy ones have a high profile because of some sort of anti-realism coup. They are also the ones who have nearly all the air time. It is like the BBC could let someone on and say strychnine is very good for you and if only everyone had it for breakfast they would be bursting with health and cured of all terminal illnesses. It is only the project fear by doctors, and not telling people this 'fact' which means we're not immortal. Or they are part of 'fake news' by saying strychnine is a poison. Repeatedly and without any challenge.

I don't know how the world turned upside down!

Oh no Buffy. Depressing indeed.

Scared to find out in case my FiL will have one.

It was in town.
Haven't seen one locally....yet.

I think some of you are a bit harsh. Regardless of whether MPs are well paid or not, burn out is burn out is burn out and it's well-proven that stressed / anxious people aren't best-placed to make good decisions.

I'm with this.

EVERYONE was at the point where a break was needed. That's MPs, journalists, you, me. Everyone.

People can't make good decisions when they are under that degree of pressure. A job is a job, but I think we all agree being on the receiving end of death threats and abuse to the degree that has been common recently, isn't normal and few people even if they are tough will cope with what's happened. Especially with the long hours and time away from home.

Psychologically the original extension won't have helped much because there was still that sense of doom initially. Those first two weeks after went on forever. You could feel the mood change when it became apparent we were going to get a second extension.

The only counter I have to that, is they need to hit the ground running next week. No one can afford to look at that October deadline and think they can sit back. Decisions need to be made sooner rather than later as once we get to the summer recess point, things are going to go down hill rapidly when parliament is due to return in September.

I've had a work related break down in the past and DH has suffered from burn out before. It's not to be sniffed at, by saying 'well its your job'. You wouldn't say it about others in public service like doctors or the police who regularly face abuse as part of their job, so why make comment that politicians should suck it up?

Yes there is a lot of mess of own making here, but I still feel that the contribution of abuse to the mix really is something that makes all the difference to how someone might cope with the pressure of the last few months.

Hit the ground running?

You're kiding, right?

100% agree Red.
I've taken a bit of a break recently and it's doing me a world of good. I'm spending a few days abroad, not working, not talking or thinking about brexit or even the UK much. The air genuinely feels lighter, calmer. We all really need a bit of a break from the underlying tension. This is not good for anyone.

Unrelated to brexit, the Riot Club showed up on my Netflix suggestions. I'd not watched it before. It's not very subtle but boy does it do a good job putting anyone off voting Tory! There is a scene toward the end in which the entitled little brats trash the innkeeper's dining room and no one wants to own up to it. Great metaphor for brexit.

Seen that. Toffs behaving as toffs do!

I think a break every now and then does everyone good.

I totally agree that arses need to be kicked into action on Tuesday. Though I'm not holding my breath. But, at the very least, I want a concrete timetable that TM can't back out of by next Friday at the latest.

Time will tell, but the odds aren't in favour of productivity happening, sadly, given recent history.

Yep.

Doesn't nose well, does it?

Nose?

bode

The nose has it?! 😂