Westminstenders: A False Sense of Security

[RedToothBrush]

The new exit date, unless we agree a deal sooner, is the 31st October.

It seems ages away, but its runs the risk of a false sense of security too.

The first deadline is May 22nd. The Conservative Party would dearly like to avoid European Elections. They are already liable to face wipe out in the early May local elections, as the party was at its peak in 2015 under Cameron when there were last elections.

The EU elections have the added danger of proportional representation meaning UKIP and The Brexit Party could win seats from them. This is despite polling suggesting that Ukip and the Brexit Party are unlikely to reach the high watermark of 2015 and this could lead to fewer UKIP style MEPs this time round.

The liklihood of a deal by 22nd May is low though. Especially given how well Tory - Labour talks are going. The potential for a deal seems remote in the next few weeks.

The next deadline falls on 30th June. If we do have EU elections, the next target for the Tory Party is the end of June to get a deal before the newly elected MEPs can take their seats. However if the goal is unachievable before EU elections, it seems unlikely that agreement will be found in the next 30 days unless there is a major change of heart amongst the hardcore ERG and the DUP. Labour will want to see the Tories humiliated too much.

May who says she will go, will face another wave of pressure to resign during May and June. Messages out of No10, though not May herself, had indicated an exit around 22nd May on the condition a deal was done. Crafty as ever, what May actually said was she would stay on until we reached the second stage of Brexit and had effectively left. This now falls as late as Oct 31st, thus killing plans for a summer Tory leader election.

Once we get past June though, time for a deal, any deal starts to become very limited. Parliament only sits until mid July. Here May hits another problem. The two year parliamentary session ends. There has been talk of it being extended but the DUP have firmly said no to this.

This means when parliament is due to return in September we have an issue. To start a new session May will need a majority to pass a Queens Speech. If the DUP and Hardline ERGers withdraw support in protest at May still being PM what happens? Can May win support from elsewhere. It seems unlikely.

At this point the question of a General Election looms large. And we only have six weeks from then before we exit the EU. If a GE is triggered then, the risk of no deal is extremely high, which might encourage some to support May from across the aisle to prevent parliament from being shut and losing those crucial six weeks.

The danger over the next few weeks, is there is a false sense of there being lots of time left. The reality is our real deadline might be in effect the end of the parliamentary session in mid July. After that all bets are off.

The date of 31st October isn't the one you should keep your eyes on.

Channel 4 News @Channel4News

We made it clear to all that if there is any harm to the Good Friday accords: no trade agreement.

US House of Representatives speaker Nancy Pelosi says that the prospect of a post-Brexit US-UK trade deal rests on maintaining the Good Friday Agreement.

twitter.com/channel4news/status/1118176610715353088?s=21

Thanks for sharing that website QueenofThorns I just signed up.

If labour scrap the sats and develop a more creative curriculum (which they were doing just as the 2010 election took place ) I might be tempted back into proper teaching. But - sats or no - I still can't vote for them if they're pushing brexit. I've got the rest of my life to fight for an end to pointless testing of children. Brexit is a bit more pressing.

Thank goodness for Channel 4 is all I can say. I suspect the state broadcaster is too thick skinned to care about the endless people pointing out that they could participate in actual journalism of this type any time they like!

Hasenstein brilliantly put. I'm glad the journey wasn't so bad in the end. It does sound like German politics is just so much more positive than ours. Even before the latest disaster.

borntobequiet I too saw the numbers and am not expecting to get anywhere. Especially as am exceptionally un-photogenic, thumbs up or otherwise. I'm looking forward to being involved in the campaign somehow though.

From SKY.
{'Their first decision was to go on holiday': EU's Verhofstadt fears UK will waste Brexit delay }

This pretty much sums up the UK attitude to this. The HoC (and Ccabinet) have still failed to understand that the existing WA has to be signed, and that they are not discussing an actual plan. Buggering off on holiday is just an insult to the whole of the UK and Europe.

The thing is, while I'm minded to agree that it looks bad, given the timing, I actually think they do need a break to be able to step away and recuperate a bit. We've said on here that exhausted people don't make good decisions, so perhaps a short break will actually energise and refresh and they will be MORE productive on their return.

They had Feb recess cancelled plus the first week of the Easter break, so they have cancelled some breaks. And if the extension had been refused, they'd have cancelled this one too, no doubt.

If they come back and faff in the same vein, I'll be proven wrong, and that's fine! But let's hope they return with renewed vigour to actually sort this shambles out good and proper.

Thanks LeClerc for your help and post on the other (chart) thread.

I find it disconcerting that there are still people who genuinely believe that more people will be better off.

If anyone wants to post this chart on the other thread I'd be grateful. finance.yahoo.com/news/devastating-chart-uk-governments-brexit-analysis-091434226.html

lonelyplanetmum
To me Brexit will mean a lowering of the UK's position, so rather than being a 5th or 6th position it will drop into maybe 20th position.
This is still not bad IF the massive inequality can be tackled, so that schools, NHS and housing are really addressed and UK society could be more fair if not quite as prosperous overall.
Unfortunately the political will to do that is lacking so what could become a fairer 'happier' UK could well descend rapidly.
You can work with a model where the 'rich' live in gated communities to keep the poor out and prevent crime, or you can have a society where everyone has at least decent 'basics' of housing, food and health which will reduce the risk of crime and avoid the tensions of 'ghettos'.

Done x

I found these two charts useful for explaining the d’Hondt method.

@Continuity - the 'Note' at the bottom explains very clearly why Labour need to make a decision.

Yes I agree LeClerc and thanks Buffy.

I find it quite interesting that there's a difference in Leaver approach. Generalising of course. There are some Leavers posting who still deny the government's figures and cling to the sunlit uplands belief - against the odds. I am guessing these are Tory leavers ( Toxiteers *TM ).

The better Leave argument IMO is that Brexit about things other than money. I guess this is a Lexiteer standpoint.

Of course the political will for the Lexiteer dream is completely lacking -the fairer 'happier' UK is massively unlikely.

We are on more of a US path with 100 million living under or near the poverty line -nearly a third of the U.S. population. We are not in the direction of a Scandinavian model aiming for at least decent basics' of housing, education food and health.

Thanks, Continuity, that first chart is easier to understand than the video I posted. I do like a good graphic!

I disagree that the MPs should have had their Easter recess cancelled. As has been said, February recess and part of the Easter recess have already been cancelled. It's not like this isn't a pre-arranged period of time off, it was pre-arranged. They didn't think wahoo, extension, let's call a last minute holiday!

If reports of MPs white faced and trembling, bursting into tears in the corrridors of parliament and hiding in cupboards are correct, then I think they probably need time off for their mental health.

Those are really helpful graphics, thank you!

Carole Cadwalladr's TED talk (I can't see if this was just made or if it's just being shared a lot... if it's been on here before then apologies, but it's so excellent it's worth sharing again) is here

news.sky.com/story/labour-and-the-tiggers-need-to-get-real-11695821

EEK!

{If reports of MPs white faced and trembling, bursting into tears in the corrridors of parliament and hiding in cupboards are correct, then I think they probably need time off for their mental health.}

I am sorry but no. They are supposedly intelligent people who happily take a good salary to be responsible towards their constituents and the country generally. It is they who are willfully messing around for 'political' gain, or I suppose some are simply incompetent. Collectively they have created this crisis so they should be grown up enough to sort the mess out.
Seeing the delaying antics of the HoC and their inability to understand the situation is so far beyond 'wrong'.
The firefighters in Paris didn't just say 'oh sod it it's break time' while tackling the Notre Damme fire.

The document was produced in November 2017 but only released this month to MPs who, in the meantime, have had to make “pivotal” decisions based on “partial” information, according to the chair of the Work and Pensions Committee Frank Field.

This is about UC. However, I think Frankie has lost all credibility in complaining about decisions being made amidst reports being kept secret and MP's getting partial information. Never mind giving the impression of being concerned about things 'which have affected the 'lives and incomes of millions of people' He is quite happy for people being screwed when it comes to the dodgy coup that is Brexit.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/universal-credit-dwp-findings-alarming-work-pensions-frank-field-a8872601.html

This has the whiff of truth

Thank goodness for Channel 4 is all I can say.

Agreed, wtf are the BBC up to.

A depressing read from sky there. Unfortunately, Farage did manage to get his vote out for the last EU elections, so he could probably do so again. However, it doesn't alter the fact that they are what might be called a negative party - defined by what they don't want, not what they do want. So they would eventually manage to take the UK out of the EU and then what? How will the problems of the UK be fixed?

1tisILeClerc
I agree re holidays. I think they could take Good Friday till Easter Mon
a long weekend, and return to get on with things. It is more than many constituents will get, worried about UC, jobs, housing, settled status...

As one of the 4 Million (3 in the UK, 1 in the EU) whose life has been on tenterhooks for the last 2 years due to the fuckwittery of the UK government I have no sympathy with any of them. If 'rent a gob' Farage can get half a party together what the hell are the 'remain' MPs up to?

The thing with both UKIP and now the Brexit party is that they are or were both The Farage Party. Take Farage away and they are nothing. I envisage a lot of citizens of Birmingham who have listened to Farage will be disillusioned in due course when he fails to deliver.

When you take Farage away you are left with racist, right wing parties - well you have that when he is there, but he casts a veneer of what passes for respectability.

The issue is they are racist, right wing parties people are happy to vote for and won't face up to what they really are.

The issue is they are racist, right wing parties people are happy to vote for and won't face up to what they really are.

Which we have seen on other threads where a significant number of Leavers will not disown the fascists and say that they don't speak in their name.