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Brexit

Westminstenders: A False Sense of Security

995 replies

RedToothBrush · 12/04/2019 22:34

The new exit date, unless we agree a deal sooner, is the 31st October.

It seems ages away, but its runs the risk of a false sense of security too.

The first deadline is May 22nd. The Conservative Party would dearly like to avoid European Elections. They are already liable to face wipe out in the early May local elections, as the party was at its peak in 2015 under Cameron when there were last elections.

The EU elections have the added danger of proportional representation meaning UKIP and The Brexit Party could win seats from them. This is despite polling suggesting that Ukip and the Brexit Party are unlikely to reach the high watermark of 2015 and this could lead to fewer UKIP style MEPs this time round.

The liklihood of a deal by 22nd May is low though. Especially given how well Tory - Labour talks are going. The potential for a deal seems remote in the next few weeks.

The next deadline falls on 30th June. If we do have EU elections, the next target for the Tory Party is the end of June to get a deal before the newly elected MEPs can take their seats. However if the goal is unachievable before EU elections, it seems unlikely that agreement will be found in the next 30 days unless there is a major change of heart amongst the hardcore ERG and the DUP. Labour will want to see the Tories humiliated too much.

May who says she will go, will face another wave of pressure to resign during May and June. Messages out of No10, though not May herself, had indicated an exit around 22nd May on the condition a deal was done. Crafty as ever, what May actually said was she would stay on until we reached the second stage of Brexit and had effectively left. This now falls as late as Oct 31st, thus killing plans for a summer Tory leader election.

Once we get past June though, time for a deal, any deal starts to become very limited. Parliament only sits until mid July. Here May hits another problem. The two year parliamentary session ends. There has been talk of it being extended but the DUP have firmly said no to this.

This means when parliament is due to return in September we have an issue. To start a new session May will need a majority to pass a Queens Speech. If the DUP and Hardline ERGers withdraw support in protest at May still being PM what happens? Can May win support from elsewhere. It seems unlikely.

At this point the question of a General Election looms large. And we only have six weeks from then before we exit the EU. If a GE is triggered then, the risk of no deal is extremely high, which might encourage some to support May from across the aisle to prevent parliament from being shut and losing those crucial six weeks.

The danger over the next few weeks, is there is a false sense of there being lots of time left. The reality is our real deadline might be in effect the end of the parliamentary session in mid July. After that all bets are off.

The date of 31st October isn't the one you should keep your eyes on.

OP posts:
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howabout · 16/04/2019 18:49

Re sitting MEPs the SNP are having a similar wrangle in Scotland. The 2 current MEPs are both men and so difficult to give a gender balanced List if they are given priority.

Icantreachthepretzels · 16/04/2019 19:05

If Seb Dance gets puts at number 4 on the list he might as well defect and go and stand for the Tiggers. I bet they'd be happy to take him.

frumpety · 16/04/2019 19:31

Sos good news, hope she continues to improve.

Prettybird yep plums still in, sugar now added, fingers crossed and thank you Star

LonelyTiredandLow · 16/04/2019 19:41

@Sos so glad to hear she is on the mend!
Flowers to all going through tough times at the moment.

DGR - I'm still confused why Trump wants to extradite Assange; without him he wouldn't have won! I guess he is just seen as a loose cannon, but why mess with someone so clearly on your side?

It did make me wonder if that was Labour's tactic the other day in defending him.

Mainly I'm annoyed that so many journo's seem to overlook the rape allegations whenever they try to say he shouldn't be 'judged' etc.

Jux · 16/04/2019 19:59

Sos, hope the steroids carry on their good work!

Lonely, I'm with you on Assange. Why have the rape allegations disappeared? I know Sweden let them go, but they are considering reinstatng them now he's out, aren't they (or has that changed?).

borntobequiet · 16/04/2019 20:21

Someone (an expert!) said on the radio the other day that even if Assange were to be extradited on relatively minor causes, and ones with no prospect of the death penalty, once in the USA he could potentially be hit with charges that could result in him being put away in high security for life, which the speaker described as (IIRC) being worse than death, and with no chance of speaking out...if that’s the case, I could see that Trump might want to extradite him to shut him up.

Runningintothesunset · 16/04/2019 20:42

^
We’ve had an incredible response from so many of you interested in helping and putting forward names as possible election candidates. Over 3,700 have asked to be considered for the 70 MEP candidacies places across Great Britain!^

My Tigger email today - this is amazing!! 3700 people putting them self forward to be an MEP. I do hope this means they can have a candidate everywhere - their logistics and funding situation must be tricky

DGRossetti · 16/04/2019 20:54

Someone (an expert!) said on the radio the other day that even if Assange were to be extradited on relatively minor causes, and ones with no prospect of the death penalty, once in the USA he could potentially be hit with charges that could result in him being put away in high security for life, which the speaker described as (IIRC) being worse than death, and with no chance of speaking out...if that’s the case, I could see that Trump might want to extradite him to shut him up.

I'm not an expert on international law, but I believe the UK could make it part of the conditions of extradition that Assange faces no further charges once on US soil.

borntobequiet · 16/04/2019 20:58

So would we? Or would it be useful for us to have Assange put away pretty much incommunicado as well?

borntobequiet · 16/04/2019 21:05

Glad to see (as per my email) that as one of 3700 I’m unlikely to go on a Tigger list. After all, I have a job I enjoy...
Still wish they would stop the thumbs up grinning poses. There’s another of these annoying pictures on the email. Perhaps I’m too grumpy for politics, even the parties I like seem to annoy me.

Jux · 16/04/2019 21:07

You sound ideal, born, take no shit attitude!

Sostenueto · 16/04/2019 21:19

This is email from my MP the Tory wanker!

Thank you for your email regarding Brexit, I am very grateful to you for sharing your views with me.

It is very disappointing and reflects very badly on Parliament that the timetable for the UK to leave the European Union has been extended to 31 October, though there is a provision that the extension can be terminated earlier if Parliament has ratified the Withdrawal Agreement. This means that if we are able to pass a deal by 22 May, the UK will not have to take part in the European Elections and once this deal had been ratified, we will leave the EU on 31 May.

This is the objective that as an MP, I shall seek to work towards. I have always supported the Government’s Withdrawal Agreement as whilst it is not perfect, it delivers Brexit in an orderly, least disruptive way. We regain control of our borders, we resume control over our laws, we shall no longer make significant annual payments to the EU and we shall be able to agree our own trade deals around the world.

I have voted for Brexit on three occasions, though I have been in a minority in the House of Commons in doing so. Whilst I respect colleagues own individual opinions on Brexit, which has divided families, the country and Parliament, I believe that it is most unfortunate that some MPs haven’t been prepared to compromise, others have sought to prevent Brexit from happening at all and some have been motivated by the objective of maximising disruption to the Government. I also think that the Government should have presented their case far better and should have set out their strategy to Parliament at a much earlier stage than they have done, reaching out to MPs from all political parties.

When Parliament returns after the Easter Recess it is likely that we shall either have to consider a compromise proposal agreed between the Government and the Labour front bench or vote on a range of options which this time will be binding, rather than indicative and could take place on a preferential vote basis.

If a way is found of putting the Government’s Withdrawal Agreement to the vote for a fourth time I shall support it. In deciding what other approaches I support, I have taken into account the following considerations:-

I believe that it is vital that the UK honours the result of the 2016 Referendum and that we do leave the EU. Not to do so would cast a shadow over British democracy which would endure for a very long time. I do not support either the revocation of Article 50 or the holding of another referendum.
Neither do I support a long extension of Article 50. This would also continue a period of uncertainty and would have a negative impact on the economy, on business prospects and peoples’ livelihoods.

For reasons which I have previously stated I am reluctant to support leaving the EU without a deal and operating on WTO terms. There is a view, which I accept, that we should have been better prepared for a no-deal Brexit, though overwhelming feedback which I am receiving from local businesses, from those sectors which are important to our area, such as food processing, packaging, oil and gas, haulage, farming and leisure, is that leaving on WTO terms would be high risk and could have a negative knock on impact to them, their staff and their customers.

Various alternative options to the Government’s deal have been put forward, including remaining in the Customs Union, what has become known as Common Market 2, which involves remaining in the Customs Union and the Single Market, and the UK remaining as a member of the European Economic Area (EEA) and returning to the European Free Trade Area (EFTA) which we invented in 1959 and which involves neither a Customs Union nor a single Northern Irish backstop. So as to break the deadlock I voted for the latter during the indicative votes process, though it did not gain strong cross-party support.

There is a suggestion that in order to overcome the current impasse the Government may agree an arrangement with the Opposition which involves the UK remaining in some form of Customs Union.

The Customs Union as it stands has the drawback that we would not be able to have our own meaningful independent trade policy, though it would end significant contributions to the EU, it would put a stop to free movement and EU rules would no longer apply across the majority of the economy. It is unclear whether it will be possible to find and agree an arrangement where we will be able to have the benefits of the Customs Union whilst being able to operate our own independent trade policy.

Staying in the Customs Union would not prevent us leaving the Common Fisheries Policy and the Common Agricultural Policy and putting in place our own domestic fishing and farming policies; the former of which can provide the framework for revitalising the Lowestoft and East Anglian fishing industries.

That said there is a risk that in negotiations for a comprehensive trading agreement as part of a Customs Union, other European countries such as France and the Netherlands could seek continued access to UK waters on similar terms as at present, in return for access to their markets for our goods. However, this risk is already there with both the Government’s Withdrawal Agreement and a no deal Brexit. So far the Government has stood firm in not negotiating away these rights and it is important that they continue to do so.

In conclusion it is very disappointing that Brexit has been postponed, that Parliament has not been able to agree a way forward and that the Government have had to reach out at such a late stage to the Opposition front bench. I do not like the further concessions that I have outlined regarding a Customs Union. However, the whole Brexit process is very disruptive, both politically and economically, and we need to get on with leaving the EU as soon as possible. If supporting some form of Customs Union will achieve this then it might be the pragmatic way forward. From my perspective I shall give full consideration to any proposal put in front of MPs though I am disappointed that this may well be a worse deal than the one which Parliament has already rejected.

I shall keep you informed of developments once Parliament has returned and in the meantime, I wish you a Happy Easter.

HazardGhost · 16/04/2019 21:20

born nah sod's law, you'll be put through, get a seat as an MEP and have to do a thumbs up photo against your will Grin

TatianaLarina · 16/04/2019 21:20

C4 report that Leave EU faked migrant footage.

www.channel4.com/news/revealed-how-leave-eu-faked-migrant-footage

“The pro-Brexit campaign group, Leave.EU, faked a viral video and appear to have staged photos of “migrants”, shortly before the EU referendum.

“An investigation by Channel 4 News found that images purporting to show “migrants” attacking young women in London seem to have been staged.

“The group – backed by businessman Arron Banks – was also behind a fake video, claiming to show how easy it is for migrants to sneak into Britain. In reality, satellite data shows the men on board had not left UK waters.

“The photographs and video both involved a former SAS soldier, Jonathan Pollen, who works for Banks’ corporate intelligence agency.

“Although the photos were never used, the fake video went viral, garnering hundreds of thousands of views on Facebook.”

TatianaLarina · 16/04/2019 21:21

Really worth watching the C4 report:

Sostenueto · 16/04/2019 21:23

Now in own bed thank goodness. DGD seems better and hopefully home Thursday though platelets not rising as quickly as they hoped but rising nonetheless. Which is great! Thank you all for your best wishes and support which is a great comfort to me.Flowers

WhatWouldScoobyDoo · 16/04/2019 22:07

Very happy to hear that DGD is getting better, sos!

QueenOfThorns · 16/04/2019 22:08

That’s great news, Sos Flowers

I’ve just signed up to this website: www.remainvoter.com

They promise to provide advice on how to maximise the Remain vote in each constituency for the EP elections. I could do with some help in making up my mind, I fear that it’ll be dreadfully split.

yolofish · 16/04/2019 22:17

sos really happy to hear that, I hope you can all get some sleep tonight.

queen thanks for that link, I'm signing up now.

sos MP response seems absolutely par for the course... leavers seem able to bleat and whinge and moan about how their unicorn dreams are frustrated, but no bugger seems to give a fuck about the 48% left behind.

NoWordForFluffy · 16/04/2019 22:20

Brilliant news, Sos. Flowers

Apparently Labour will scrap SATs if they're in government. Now that IS a policy I can get behind.

Iambuffy · 16/04/2019 22:22

sos fab :)

I'm going to have to hold my nose and vote labour, aren't i?? Ffs.

I've signed up to the remain site thanks

prettybird · 16/04/2019 22:25

That's interesting about the SNP MEPs howabout as the only MEPs I "know" are Alyn Smith, SNP (he of the chers amis address and the recent leave the light on so we can find our way back ) - but he wasn't even the first named on the SNP list; and Catherine Stihler, Labour (who'd impressed me at a Nordic Horizons event) - and neither is she the 1st named. I try to forget that I know the name of the odious, execrable UKIP MEP, who I refuse to name check

Littlespaces · 16/04/2019 22:28

Thanks for the link Queen.

HesterThrale · 16/04/2019 22:56

Sos glad things are looking better for your DGD. Been through hospital stuff with DD and know what an anxious time it can be. Thinking of you.

Watched this short video explaining the EU D’Hondt voting system and I think I understand it a bit better now!

m.youtube.com/watch?feature=share&v=6CU3F3ToIIg

phpolly · 16/04/2019 22:56

.