Westminstenders: A False Sense of Security

[RedToothBrush]

The new exit date, unless we agree a deal sooner, is the 31st October.

It seems ages away, but its runs the risk of a false sense of security too.

The first deadline is May 22nd. The Conservative Party would dearly like to avoid European Elections. They are already liable to face wipe out in the early May local elections, as the party was at its peak in 2015 under Cameron when there were last elections.

The EU elections have the added danger of proportional representation meaning UKIP and The Brexit Party could win seats from them. This is despite polling suggesting that Ukip and the Brexit Party are unlikely to reach the high watermark of 2015 and this could lead to fewer UKIP style MEPs this time round.

The liklihood of a deal by 22nd May is low though. Especially given how well Tory - Labour talks are going. The potential for a deal seems remote in the next few weeks.

The next deadline falls on 30th June. If we do have EU elections, the next target for the Tory Party is the end of June to get a deal before the newly elected MEPs can take their seats. However if the goal is unachievable before EU elections, it seems unlikely that agreement will be found in the next 30 days unless there is a major change of heart amongst the hardcore ERG and the DUP. Labour will want to see the Tories humiliated too much.

May who says she will go, will face another wave of pressure to resign during May and June. Messages out of No10, though not May herself, had indicated an exit around 22nd May on the condition a deal was done. Crafty as ever, what May actually said was she would stay on until we reached the second stage of Brexit and had effectively left. This now falls as late as Oct 31st, thus killing plans for a summer Tory leader election.

Once we get past June though, time for a deal, any deal starts to become very limited. Parliament only sits until mid July. Here May hits another problem. The two year parliamentary session ends. There has been talk of it being extended but the DUP have firmly said no to this.

This means when parliament is due to return in September we have an issue. To start a new session May will need a majority to pass a Queens Speech. If the DUP and Hardline ERGers withdraw support in protest at May still being PM what happens? Can May win support from elsewhere. It seems unlikely.

At this point the question of a General Election looms large. And we only have six weeks from then before we exit the EU. If a GE is triggered then, the risk of no deal is extremely high, which might encourage some to support May from across the aisle to prevent parliament from being shut and losing those crucial six weeks.

The danger over the next few weeks, is there is a false sense of there being lots of time left. The reality is our real deadline might be in effect the end of the parliamentary session in mid July. After that all bets are off.

The date of 31st October isn't the one you should keep your eyes on.

www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/8870950/
Senior Tories fear thousands of Brexit activists are infiltrating the Conservative Party to have a say on who the next PM will be
Senior members fear that the prospect of having a say on Theresa May's successor is being exploited as 30,000 new members have joined within the past year

New joiners are thought to be both new arrivals from UKIP – dubbed ‘Blukippers’ – as well as a new wave of Remainers signing up to try to stop a new hard Brexit leader.

What a loss in Notre Dame! Tragic.
I've just had cuppa with nurses who said I ought to go to bed as I look wore out. I said this is my normal look DD who is supposed to be asleep has rang every hour. I told her I will switch phone off if she doesn't go to bed! DGD woke up for a bit but I think it has now ' hit' her that she's quite unwell and was teary which made me teary. but gentle cuddle and tucking in and meds has sent her to sleep a little more comfortable. I wouldn't wish this on anyone
Thanks all for support and best wishes. I'm off now before the nurses attempt to tuck me in!

Anyone else read this about US and EU agreeing trade talks and feel that there may suddenly be less US support for Brexit? Although they prob want our pharma and agri trade, it may be more beneficial for us to stay in for them now.

Certainly doesn't help us to Brexit now, as once again, we will never get as good deals as the EU has made . Fox must be spitting feathers

Re Notre Dame - is my memory playing tricks or isn't there computer software now that can help restore ancient buildings? I seem to remember reading that some of the ones the Taliban blew up were being restored?

@Red - that last article...if you dance with fire...!

It's one of the reasons i've not understood why antiques aren't selling for as much as they used to. It's a one of a kind and every year it survives amazing.

I think it does show how little we invest in looking after these old buildings now. We seem to have lost the art or skilled tradesmen. I remember reading many articles about the hollowing out of London, where facades of old buildings are kept with interiors demolished. If anyone caught the Ripper episode with Emilia Fox the other night, it was very apparent as nearly every area they went to was a pit or building site.

I’ve just caught up with the thread (Brexit break). Sos sending best wishes to you and your family. Hope the morning brings you better news xxx

sos hope you all get some sleep, and hope the news is better in the morning

Hope you get some rest, SOS and DGD making progress in morning.

awful about Notre Dame.

My lovely dog is having to be PTS in the next day or so. My dd (ASD) adores her and is not coping well. Feel so damn tired tonight.

Oh Stripey for you too. Losing a much loved pet is awful. And even worse to be worried about your DD’s grief too.

Get some rest now if you can.

More for Sos and for Stripey too.

Pet bereavement is a profound loss and involvement in the decision making process over any loved one is so tough. I'm so sorry..

I expect everyone has had this petition response. The time of it is just wrong and makes me .

On the one hand they have Parliamentary committees revealing the weird number of hits from Russian locations on their own Parliamentary reports and yet the door to examining the ref is closed.

The Government has responded to the petition you signed – “Halt Brexit For A Public Inquiryy_”.
Government responded:
Investigations are conducted by the independent Electoral Commission. There are no plans to establish a Public Inquiry. The Government is committed to delivering the result of the EU referendum.
The EU referendum was carried out in accordance with legislation passed by Parliament. The provisions relating to the conduct of the referendum were carefully scrutinised and ratified by Parliament. There was a six week period in which the result of the EU Referendum could be challenged by judicial review.
We treat the security and integrity of our democratic processes extremely seriously. The Government is committed to making sure the rules work, now and in the future.
It is not acceptable for any organisation to breach electoral procedures – and it is regrettable that fines have been levied on multiple groups on both sides of the referendum campaigns.
Pro-Remain groups outspent pro-Leave groups by £4 million in the referendum campaign.
The Electoral Commission is the independent regulatory body responsible for ensuring that elections and referendums are run effectively and in accordance with the law. If offences are alleged, it is right that they are investigated thoroughly by the appropriate agencies. Those agencies and any investigations are rightly independent of government.
Close to three quarters of the electorate took part in the 2016 referendum, trusting that the result would be respected. This Government wrote to every household prior to the referendum, promising that the outcome of the referendum would be implemented. 17.4 million people then voted to leave the European Union, providing the biggest democratic mandate for any course of action ever directed at the UK Government. Following the referendum, Parliament overwhelmingly confirmed the result by voting with clear and convincing majorities in both of its Houses for the European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Bill.
The British people cast their votes once again in the 2017 General Election where over 80% of those who voted, voted for parties, who committed in their manifestos to upholding the result of the referendum. This Government stands by this commitment.
Cabinet Office.
Click this link to view the response online:
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241848?reveal_response=yess_
This petition has over 100,000 signatures. The Petitions Committee will consider it for a debate. They can also gather further evidence and press the government for action.
The Committee is made up of 11 MPs, from political parties in government and in opposition. It is entirely independent of the Government. Find out more about the Committee: https://petition.parliament.uk/help#petitions-committeee_
Thanks,
The Petitions team
UK Government and Parliament

You’re receiving this email because you signed this petition: “Halt Brexit For A Public Inquiry”

Sorry typo. The tone of that response is wrong - not time.
People are genuinely concerned and receive a hectoring response from the government which repeats that 80% nonsense.

The bit about respecting integrity of processes is just outrageously ironic as well. This from the first parliament in decades to have been held in contempt. It has suppressed impact assessments, tried to avoid meaningful votes, tried to avoid Parliament voting on Article 50, frittered tax payers money on dodgy contracts, bribed the DUP to buy votes, made scant attempt to restore Stormont etc etc. I really don't see respect for rules and process by this government.

Recent history is reminding me of those apocalyptic novels where catastrophe after catastrophe strikes totally unpredictably and randomly.

Agree the tone of that Government response was that of an entire political system with its head up its own arse. Hi lonely!

Hi Born. We are awake early as normal! Yes it's the dictatorial tone. I honestly think this is completely unprecedented here in modern times.

The whole resonance is shut up - we are doing what we have said we will do (even though we don't know what that is). There is never the slightest concession to almost half the country - who are so worried and concerned.

Even a fudge response would be better. A compassionate conciliatory government would say look we are a bit preoccupied now. We will consider an enquiry if more people show concern.

It's the shut up and go away dismissive tone that is unprecedented.

I take the tone of the response as being borne put of fear. I don't think they will escape a public inquiry although it may take longer than we might wish. I am near Liverpool and yesterday we had 2 minutes silence for justice for the 96 - it was the 30 year anniversary of the Hillsborough disaster. A timely reminder that "the arc of the moral universeis long, but it bends toward justice.”

I think we need to take heart from whatever silver linings and scraps of hope we can find now to avoid sinking into despair. I was glad to read this morning that the bell towers, main building structure and major artworks have been saved from Notre Dame and that Macron has pledged to rebuild. I think they will rebuild properly and it will be beautiful and also safe. No it wil not be the same but it will still be amazing. Thank goodness no one was killed. The CEO of Kering has pledged €100 million to the restoration - a great excuse to buy Stella McCartney (one of the brands they own). No I can't afford it either . But I will donate a few quid to the restoration efforts.

I am not sure if it is unprecedented, I think the fact that so many people are questioning it ( the referendum ) that is unprecedented. Can anyone remember a time in the recent past where so many people believed there were irregularities with our voting system ? plenty of times people didn't agree with the outcome. This is different and could have been avoided with a 'real' referendum with all the normal checks and balances. I wonder how the first one was run ?

I am not sure if it is unprecedented, I think the fact that so many people are questioning it ( the referendum ) that is unprecedented

Maybe memories fade with time. I know there are many criticisms to make of the (Blair) Labour government but I just don't remember government communications back then being so dismissive and non conciliatory? It feels different.

I particularly took exception to:

There was a six week period in which the result of the EU Referendum could be challenged by judicial review.

So concerned citizens only redress is to crowdfund, get evidence of all irregular electioneering funding and tactics, evidence of Putin bots, evidence of US Cambridge Analytica software etc , get legal advice, and sue within 6 weeks. Right.

We treat the security and integrity of our democratic processes extremely seriously. The Government is committed to making sure the rules work, now and in the future.

Really. Bribes to the DUP. Suppressing and denying impact assessments. Defying Parliament. That's being committed to working with the rules is it?

This is the bit which sticks in the craw:

The British people cast their votes once again in the 2017 General Election where over 80% of those who voted, voted for parties, who committed in their manifestos to upholding the result of the referendum. This Government stands by this commitment.

So Labour and the Tories both had one issue Manifestos, did they?

Take note of this statement and don't let it get lost. Assuming Brexit does go ahead, eventually there will be some sort of enquiry and this is the sort of statement which everyone will be frantically pretending was never said. Like those Leavers now who are telling us it was never meant to be easy - a lie easily exposed by the quotes being used by LedByDonkeys.

Even if Brexit doesn't happen, I expect that at some stage there will be an enquiry.

Meanwhile, over on another thread, we see quite a number of Leavers happily making excuses for known Fascists.

lonely there is definite wiff of the authoritarian about the reply, with a dollop of patronising and a sprinkling of bollocks for good measure. A recipe for shut up and go away

stripey for your beloved pet and DC. So sorry to hear your news.

What's also conspicuous by its absence is any " Besides we believe this is the best path because..."

for Stripey and family.

Hope things improve quickly for your granddaughter sos and you all get some decent sleep.