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Brexit

Westminstenders: A False Sense of Security

995 replies

RedToothBrush · 12/04/2019 22:34

The new exit date, unless we agree a deal sooner, is the 31st October.

It seems ages away, but its runs the risk of a false sense of security too.

The first deadline is May 22nd. The Conservative Party would dearly like to avoid European Elections. They are already liable to face wipe out in the early May local elections, as the party was at its peak in 2015 under Cameron when there were last elections.

The EU elections have the added danger of proportional representation meaning UKIP and The Brexit Party could win seats from them. This is despite polling suggesting that Ukip and the Brexit Party are unlikely to reach the high watermark of 2015 and this could lead to fewer UKIP style MEPs this time round.

The liklihood of a deal by 22nd May is low though. Especially given how well Tory - Labour talks are going. The potential for a deal seems remote in the next few weeks.

The next deadline falls on 30th June. If we do have EU elections, the next target for the Tory Party is the end of June to get a deal before the newly elected MEPs can take their seats. However if the goal is unachievable before EU elections, it seems unlikely that agreement will be found in the next 30 days unless there is a major change of heart amongst the hardcore ERG and the DUP. Labour will want to see the Tories humiliated too much.

May who says she will go, will face another wave of pressure to resign during May and June. Messages out of No10, though not May herself, had indicated an exit around 22nd May on the condition a deal was done. Crafty as ever, what May actually said was she would stay on until we reached the second stage of Brexit and had effectively left. This now falls as late as Oct 31st, thus killing plans for a summer Tory leader election.

Once we get past June though, time for a deal, any deal starts to become very limited. Parliament only sits until mid July. Here May hits another problem. The two year parliamentary session ends. There has been talk of it being extended but the DUP have firmly said no to this.

This means when parliament is due to return in September we have an issue. To start a new session May will need a majority to pass a Queens Speech. If the DUP and Hardline ERGers withdraw support in protest at May still being PM what happens? Can May win support from elsewhere. It seems unlikely.

At this point the question of a General Election looms large. And we only have six weeks from then before we exit the EU. If a GE is triggered then, the risk of no deal is extremely high, which might encourage some to support May from across the aisle to prevent parliament from being shut and losing those crucial six weeks.

The danger over the next few weeks, is there is a false sense of there being lots of time left. The reality is our real deadline might be in effect the end of the parliamentary session in mid July. After that all bets are off.

The date of 31st October isn't the one you should keep your eyes on.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
37
Peregrina · 14/04/2019 14:28

Can you remember when Portillo was booted and everyone cheered and then it turned out he was not as bad as he seemed?

Yes, best result of the night, giving rise to the saying "Were you still up for Portillo?" He however, went up in many people's estimation by being gracious in defeat. I can't see Johnson being gracious.

Nicola Blackwood went from a majority of 9,500 to losing her seat by 816 votes.

ElenadeClermont · 14/04/2019 14:41

Facebook is back up, so finally I could check why I was targeted by the Brexit party. May I suggest that we all check why we are targeted by political ads. It is fascinating.

They Brexit party targets people interested in Boris Johnson (clearly not me) and people over 40 living in England.

Westminstenders: A False Sense of Security
Littlebelina · 14/04/2019 14:45

Julian brazier had a comfortable majority in Canterbury (10k I think) in 2015 but lost to labour in 2017 by 187 votes. Think a strong targeting of the student vote did it but shows it can be done even in a Tory strong hold. Canterbury was blue for a long time

Littlebelina · 14/04/2019 14:48

185 years in fact

GeistohneGrenzen · 14/04/2019 15:02

PMK

prettybird · 14/04/2019 15:12

That would explain why I've not seen anything to do with the Brexit Party on my FB Grin - I might more than meet the age criteria Wink but I live in the wrong place! Grin

Let's hope that such ignoring targetting means that we can remove both UKIP and/or the Brexit Party from the Scottish MEP contingent Smile

SingingBabooshkaBadly · 14/04/2019 15:15

Yes, best result of the night, giving rise to the saying "Were you still up for Portillo?" He however, went up in many people's estimation by being gracious in defeat.

I remember that so well. I was staying with Tory-voting friends that night. By the time Portillo got booted out they had got so caught up in the excitement of the evening that they both cheered too! The following morning we all loafed around watching the Blairs going into Downing Street. There was such a feeling of optimism. You would have sworn my friends had voted Labour too.

It feels like a different world.

One half of the couple long since deserted the Tories. She told me a couple of nights ago her DH Now says he could never vote Tory again. Like so many of us they have no idea who they could vote for.

But yes, one of my strongest memories of that election night was how gracious and generous in defeat Portillo was. Can’t imagine many of the current crop being so.

prettybird · 14/04/2019 15:25

www.thenational.scot/news/17572347.on-the-trail-of-the-dark-money-which-funds-trump-davidson-and-brexit/?ref=fbshr&fbclid=IwAR1Bcbonl77-hzBL6ad1ooAaelQS2By1L2GsiWt1qAp76oNYyKQFYzBFgjE

Interesting analysis of the ease with which dark money exploits the lack of a written UK constitution and the way that Scottish limited companies are used to launder money (and the Scottish Government can do nothing about it as the powers to do so haven't been devolved Confused) - and how the Electoral Commission /the Met don't appear to want to are slow to investigate Angry

Nothing we haven't talked about on these threads Sad

DGRossetti · 14/04/2019 16:07

To be fair (?) to Boris, I enjoyed his TV documentaries. He's a natural presenter. If he'd stuck to those ....

TalkinPaece · 14/04/2019 16:14

Fishing industry going to come to the rescue of the post Brexit economy
or not
unearthed.greenpeace.org/2018/10/11/fishing-quota-uk-defra-michael-gove/

havingtochangeusernameagain · 14/04/2019 16:41

yes, one of my strongest memories of that election night was how gracious and generous in defeat Portillo was

He was a really right wing MP (though not compared with some of the current crop). Yet he comes over really well in his rail travel shows - and almost a bit left-wing! Maybe he's learnt how the other half lives.

And yes the feeling of optimism in 1997 was palpable.

SwedishEdith · 14/04/2019 16:48

He doesn't come over as remotely left-wing on This Week. Extremely pompous.

MockerstheFeManist · 14/04/2019 16:56

Oh please not Portaloo. He went and did his train thing in Italy. I was hoping he'd be arrested by the fashion police.

Meanwhile, the StronganStables and the Marxist Threats who want to destroy Britian seem to be getting along like a Brexit stockpile warehouse on fire.

What chance a stitch-up coalition?

OublietteBravo · 14/04/2019 17:04

Does anyone wonder where we’d be today if we’d had a Labour/LibDem coalition back in 2010 rather than the Tory/LibDem one?

DGRossetti · 14/04/2019 17:05

My abiding memory of the "Portillo moment" was James Goldsmith managing to encapsulate everything that was wrong about white male privilege in England in a 2 second clip.

There's a saying about apples and trees ...

For fans of 1970s crimes, James "Sir Jammy" Goldsmith was connected to the Lord Lucan case, where senior case-hardened detectives were appalled at how closed the Lucan set were - happily lying to the police to protect "one of their own". After all, he didn't kill anyone that counted, did he ?

woman19 · 14/04/2019 17:16

Does anyone wonder where we’d be today if we’d had a Labour/LibDem coalition back in 2010

Yes. First of many appalling decisions by Clegg.

And if we hadn't had the so called expenses scandal.

Parliamentary Expenses Scandal The Reunion

Sue MacGregor brings together key figures from Westminster and Fleet Street involved in the protracted battle over releasing MPs' expenses to the public in 2009

www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0004629

Danetobe · 14/04/2019 17:17

Thank you for all the replies to my query re EU election. I will definitely be going to that talk in copenhagen on tuesday with the Danish candidates just in case the UK doesn't partake (but hope that it does) so thanks for the tip.

DGRossetti · 14/04/2019 17:26

He was a really right wing MP (though not compared with some of the current crop). Yet he comes over really well in his rail travel shows - and almost a bit left-wing! Maybe he's learnt how the other half lives.

Maybe the entire idea of right/left wing is obsolete in the 21st century ? Given how fascism and communism can bleed into one another without anyone really knowing, we need to stop thinking in such either/or exclusive terms. Especially when terms like "fascist" can be bandied around without a lot of people really knowing what it means. I'd wager that if the next 10 posters after this tried to write a precis of what they think fascism means (for example) without reference to the previous poster and the internet, there would probably be a few contradictory qualities, as well as a few common ones.

Littlespaces · 14/04/2019 17:35

My fear is the two more extreme elements are going to bridge that small gap & come up with some horrible ideas.

Westminstenders: A False Sense of Security
DGRossetti · 14/04/2019 17:40

As an anti bot posting, and to balance the cat pics (I'm a cat fan, but DW less so. And we have a no pets pact ...) but loosely Euro related ... did anyone read about Wolves being reintroduced to the Netherlands ?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-47838162

Being half Italian, so ultimately of Roman descent Grin I've a soft spot for wolves (although I'm not a dog person at all ...).

BestIsWest · 14/04/2019 17:41

There were a group of about 10 Leave supporters on a motorway bridge we passed under yesterday. Banners with Leave Means Leave and Union flags. Honk if you support us.

DH and I very childishly gave them the bird.

DH pointed out that they were entirely male, not a woman amongst them. Not sure if this is a thing.

DGRossetti · 14/04/2019 17:44

How about an independent Wales ? (Article posted below ...)

nation.cymru/opinion/wales-is-an-energy-colony-were-poor-because-our-dividend-is-drained-out/

nation.cymru
Wales is an energy colony - we're poor because our dividend is drained out
6-7 minutes
Photo by Constellate on Unsplash

Jonathan Edwards, MP for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

The idea that Wales is too poor to be independent has been ingrained in the Welsh national consciousness as a result of years of the both Tories and Labour repeating a condescending narrative.

According to them, Wales is an economic basket case who is lucky to receive the crumbs offered to us by Westminster.

Looking at the fiscal deficit that we face in Wales – that is the gap between the money we bring in through taxes and our reliance on transfers from Westminster via a highly centralised taxation system – it’s easy to make such an argument.

Of course, the hypocrisy at the heart this claim is that the failed economic model of the British State is the direct cause of the situation we are currently in.

When Labour and Tory politicians tell us that Wales is too poor, too small and too stupid to be an independent country, what they are telling us is that the people of Wales are destined to endure relative poverty for eternity.

The real message is: vote Labour and Tory to keep Wales skint.

Over the years, I have lost count of the conversations I have held with people bemoaning the pillage of our country’s resources. As the great Phil Bennet roused the Welsh national team before the Grand Slam decider against England in 1977:

“They’ve taken our coal, our water, our steel. They buy our homes and live in them for a fortnight every year. What have they given us? Absolutely nothing.”

The common perception in Wales is that post-industrialisation has led to the destruction of economic wealth in Wales, reflected in our current GDP statistics. Sadly, it is not hard to highlight this point when we know that the communities in the west of our country are designated amongst the poorest in the whole of the European Union, whilst inner London, at the other side of the M4, is the richest by a country mile.

However, none of this is inevitable.

Drained

We often, quite legitimately hear about monetising Welsh water exports, but let’s look at another example – Wales is the fifth largest exporter of electricity in the world.

In 2016 Wales generated 38.8 TWh of electricity and only consumed 16.1 TWh. This means that we exported 22.7 TWh – that’s just less than what the whole of Scotland consumes in a year.

Furthermore, Wales is well on the path to reaching its target of 70% of electricity consumption from renewable sources.

Canada is the world’s largest exporter of electricity at 64 TWh; Germany 51 TWh; Paraguay 48 TWh; France at 42TWh.Then comes Wales, placed above energy rich Norway and its $1 trillion sovereign wealth fund built on surpluses from its energy policy.

The British State as a whole isn’t even in the top ten. The reality is that most other countries are net importers of electricity or produce little for export.

The fundamental problem is that our success in producing vast amount of electricity has no monetary value for our people – again, much like our water exports. We are therefore effectively just a giant electricity power plant for another country.

The only economic value for Wales comes from construction, operational and maintenance jobs, with the real dividend being drained out of our country with the end-product.

The time has come for Wales to use our strength and gain control over all aspects of energy policy. The first draft law I moved when I became an MP called for this, which was ruthlessly voted down by Labour and the Tories at the first hurdle.

It’s time we made our strength in electricity production work for us. With a bit of vision, we could combine a radical agenda aimed at tackling climate change, economic regeneration and social inequality.

Dead hand

A fundamental question Labour and Tory politicians must answer is how can a country ranked fifth in the world in terms of electricity exporting see a third of its people live in fuel poverty? If that isn’t a legacy of colonialism and exploitation, I am not sure what is.

The one snag in the plan is that none of the generation assets – in other words, the power plants – are currently owned by the people of Wales via our own national government. This must change.

Plaid Cymru’s proposed Ynni Cymru model would provide the vehicle for monetising assets either via taking control of existing electricity generating assets or building new ones.

Let’s just take our 22.7 TWh of currently exported electricity – at a wholesale price just shy of £64.76 per MWh (that’s a millionth of a TWh) this electricity could be worth millions to the Welsh economy, if the assets were owned by the people.

Even if we don’t nationalise existing assets, the potential wealth of our natural renewable resources is huge.

Take the much-mooted tidal lagoon in Swansea, for example. The Welsh Government could directly fund its development, as opposed to begging the British Government to finance the scheme via the private sector, which ends up fleecing consumers.

If it’s a choice between a new M4 or a series of tidal lagoons in the hands of the public – it’s a no brainer. The environmental, social and economic benefits would be huge.

There is a radical and bold alternative path for Wales if we show confidence in our collective ability as a nation.

It’s time for the people of Wales to remove the dead hands of both Labour and the Conservatives. The salvation of our own country is in our own gift, if only we would open our own eyes.

DGRossetti · 14/04/2019 17:51

DH pointed out that they were entirely male, not a woman amongst them. Not sure if this is a thing.

I'm guessing the womenfolk were at home making sure it was clean and ready for when the men got back. Especially under the fridge ?

As you move along some sort of line of male behaviour, there's a point where the only reason women exist, is for men to try and outwank do each other in shows of "strength". It kinda makes me think of the deep south attitude where the slaves were brutalized in part "to protect our womenfolk", but at the same time, the same womenfolk were no better than slaves themselves. Which is certainly how some Tories still think. No problem with the lower classes women working, naturally. But heaven forfend if "the little woman" suddenly had an urge to work.

woman19 · 14/04/2019 17:59

Not sure if this is a thing

Nigel Farage@Nigel_Farage
The European Parliament, in their foolishness, have voted for increased maternity pay. I'm off for a drink. #UKIP
4:57 AM - 20 Oct 2010

Whisky2014 · 14/04/2019 18:09

Nigel farage is such a knob.