Westminstenders: Compromise is a difficult word

[RedToothBrush]

Today the HoC had a water leak. It closed the house for the day. This isn't without consequence; any hope for the opportunity of Indicative Votes on Monday had cold water poured on it.

Meanwhile talks between talks between May and Corbyn were about as productive as you'd imagine. But apparently they had nice tea and biscuits.

The Cooper Bill, the last minute lock on May getting a extension to prevent no deal, has been in the Lords today. I say it's been in the Lords but Tories have filibuster Ed on procedure for over 6 hours to prevent the chance of it passing the house. Tory whips are timetabled until 6am but the opposition benches have vowed to go to 7.30am. So far the votes to ruin the procedure have failed comfortably so the opposition have the number. Its just a question of time.

The trouble is with the Lords not sitting tomorrow that means the bill won't get passed until Monday and there are fears it won't get royal assent until Tuesday.

The bill doesn't prevent accidental no deal but it would be a barrier to May.

It therefore looks like May's gambit with the EU to get an extension is to say her plan is ongoing talks with Labour for a cross party solution. It won't wash.

No deal looks more and more likely.

the sands are falling but we have time ....

If Macron gets his way we have less than a week. And he seems pretty gung ho - convincing Spain and Belgium, when his veto, alone, would be enough.
Tusk is saying such nice things - I think he genuinely remembers the 48% and the 1 million marches etc and understands that ordinary people who don't want this are getting punished because of the acts of an incompetent PM who they didn't even elect. He understands how rogue governments harm normal people and that one of the purposes of the EU is to protect it's citizens (which we still are!) from that. But it isn't him that gets to make the final decision.
Everyone talking about the flextension needs to listen to Macron. If he has his way - it's not happening. Because TM isn't going to pull anything new out of a hat before Wednesday.

voted Leave because he hated our politicians and wanted change.

This is a particularly peculiar line of leaver logic - and it is one the Louise mentioned earlier in the thread. That a vote for brexit was a vote against politicians. Now fair enough if it was just 'give Cameron a bloody nose' line of thinking - but in which case they aren't real leave voters, they weren't voting about the EU and know it, so shouldn't be included in the sacred 17.4 million.
But if it was a vote against politicians and politics in general...

Who exactly did they think would be negotiating and enacting brexit?
Who did they think would be delivering this change?

And how does voting because they hate politicians make sense alongside the oft lauded 'sovereignty' ... what did they hope to make sovereign if not parliament? though they fucking hate in when parliament acts sovereign And who did they think would sit in parliament if not politicians?

that Louise not the Louise - obvs.

People renewing their passports have received new ones without the words ' European Union' on the cover, despite the delay to Brexit.
The new burgundy passports where introduced from 30th March, the day after we were supposed to leave. To add to confusion some people may still receive the old version until stocks run out.
Dark blue passports of the old design will be issued at end of year.

Sir Kier Starmer has said the Government has not proposed any changes to the PMs Brexit deal during talks. In fact Kiers words were the government was ' not countenancing any change'.
Downing street says ' we have made serious proposals'.
I would believe Keir Starmer before this lying, conniving, conceitful Government.

How can I fix it for him when our politicians and media are fuelling the fucking fire every day?

Just wanted to say I'm so sorry utterlyperfects DS has had to face racism. Just so sorry.

I don't know where you are but maybe come for a day out in London to remind him that there's a life beyond school and there are millions who do not judge in that way.
This Easter we are going out of London visiting family where I grew up and I invited DDs school friend to come for a couple of days too. Her family needed loads and loads of reassurance they'd be ok. The parents were both born in India but lived in Japan and have only been here for 5 years or so and have no family here. They are frightened of leaving our area of London as they think if there's an atmosphere of rejecting white Europeans what hope do they have. But they quickly became part of the school community here and are very happy whilst in London. It's tangible seeing their fear - and some mutual friends who are German said they felt exactly the same about leaving the London bubble that they wouldn't dare go into a pub etc. I've tried reassuring them but, as often, it's what you feel.

There are so many reasons why people voted the way they did in 2016 be it leave or remain. I have friends that voted leave and remain. Predominantly the leave voters voted the way they did because they wanted to get rid of the Tory party mainly Cameron and his Eton friends. They were well aware it was not the EU that was causing austerity but nonetheless they used their vote for that purpose ( no doubt other issues like immigration came into it but in one case that was because her dd could not get a council house although born in the town and bought up here because at the time we were having an influx of immigrants who were getting council housing). None of the leave voters among my friends were racist. I would never be friends with them if they were being as I'm mixed race! But factors like I just described do affect votes when it affects your families life. The remain friends of mine are decidly better off than me. They have 3 to 4 foreign holidays a year, own huge houses and are in professional jobs. They want free movement etc and are more uowardky mobile than my leave friends who are struggling in minimum wage, poor housing. Zero contracts, no job security. All these factors which has been stated a zillion times on here go to influence voting behaviour.
I don't for one minute say this is how or why the population voted but it it is just how my friends voted and the reasons they gave me for voting the way they did.

This is old data but it's for utterlyperfect ...

That survey and chart you referred to was before the ref. It was real data from an extensive study. It wasn't just Yougov. Even the state broadcasting corporation reported it!

Basically the British Election Study, in which asked 24,000 people their voting intentions in the ref.

The people were also questioned on views on other things, such as the death penalty, punishment etc. This provides a better indicator of how people voted, compared to income or occupation etc.

It reduces my friend's Mums standpoint that this was a revolution and all underprivileged were making a protest. The graphs on the link restricted to White British respondents show almost no statistically significant difference in EU vote intention between rich and poor.
By contrast, the probability of voting for this mess rises to 70% for those most in favour of the death penalty.
Wealthy and poor and in between people who back capital punishment backed Brexit. Rich and poor and in between who oppose the death penalty support Remain.

So it's not saying that's why they voted as they did just that people with those beliefs are more likely to vote a certain way.

The thing that bothers me is that having (almost) got their way so far what is next on the list. As it's not going to be a question of aha we have Brexit or even Flexit - job done. There will be the next thing and the next thing.

The link between Brexit and the death penalty http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-36803544

I think it's a particularly lazy argument to say that people voted leave because they're racist; it's far too simplistic for a start.

Undoubtedly, as the saying goes, all racists voted leave but not all leave voters are racist.

I think it's probably easy to blame politicians (including the EU) if you're in a dire situation and have been for many years, with seemingly no way out. A chance to vote for change offered itself and was taken.

Frank Field gave coherent arguments during the referendum campaign and explained why people, like those in his Birkenhead constituency, would vote leave. I'm not convinced those with power and influence really ever consider the impact of austerity on these types of people (they really can't do, given how many voted to make these people worse off) or what it's like trying to raise a family on a zero hours contract while trying to make ends meet on the fuck up that's UC.

Society's issues are too complex to give a blanket description of leave voters.

I have suffered racism all my life mainly because I am neither black or white but an ivory colour. I remember when I was a carer going into a rabid racist upper class woman whom I looked after for about 6 months. It was agony every day having to hear her vile hate. She had gone through countless carers until I had the displeasure of being sent to her. In my profession you cannot argue or say to a person in their own home ' shut up you racist cow' ( well u can but you would be sacked).
I had come to the end of my tether and knew that I would not attend to her anymore one morning when she was going on about those 'dirty pakis'. I threw down the flannel and said my piece that is unprintable finally finishing with ' a dirty paki has been washing your body for the past 6 months!' She turned round and said ' Don't leave, your fine your not one of them'. Obviously I left and lost my job.

I'd still say that leave has broadly 2 camps:
Group 1
Mid salary (not the poorest at any rate - this is a source of enormous pride in itself common theme) and why they like to benefit bash
Doesn't like change ironically as this was sold as change albeit for things to go back in time
Not used to thinking from other peoples' perspective and sees no reason to - you are either like them or 'different' and therefore mildly threatening
Huge amounts of pride in the country, doesn't see the St George flag and inwardly think a not very subtle racist lives there, gets cross with people who might suggest it in fact, although they themselves have more 'class' than that
Unlikely to move out of area born in - perhaps a county or two away.
Possibly goes on holiday but prefers all inclusive and would rather they served 'proper' English food and spoke English. They only want to meet other Brits abroad and probably spend the whole holiday comparing what is in the shops/how clean the pavements are/how late things open to UK (negatively of course).
General fear of the unknown so controlling environment/people they talk to is very important - links to authoritarianism; TORIES appeal

Group 2
The poorest - worst hit by austerity even if they haven't been 'told' this
Never go on holiday abroad.
Might know someone who rents out a caravan where they can stay for a few days with the family as a holiday
Doesn't see why EU is important
Thinks people who go on holidays abroad must have too much money
Not interested at languages (whats the point) so foreign people scare them a bit
Generally just want to have a daily routine and plod on without distraction - these people aren't used to making waves
Zero trust in politicians, what have they ever done for them?
Don't care 'we will all be poorer' because they can't get any poorer
UKIP appeal

How awful, Sos. It's shit that you felt you had to just listen to her racist ranting to keep your job. Any decent employer would have at least tried to protect you from that.

Utterlyperfect, I'm also sorry for what your son is going through. It's sickening what hate some parents pass on to their kids.

There are so many reasons why people voted the way they did in 2016 be it leave or remain. I have friends that voted leave and remain. Predominantly the leave voters voted the way they did because they wanted to get rid of the Tory party mainly Cameron and his Eton friends.

You can't use anecdata about the leave/remain split for the reasons that lonely gave, and because most people's close circle is made up of people who are like them.

Speaking personally, I don't know any poor leavers. All the leavers I know personally - family, a few colleagues - are rich or at least reasonably comfortable. They are also almost all Tory voters.

Obviously that is representative of only a subset of leave voters.

I think one of the things that is missing in the "why" debate is often that people may have voted quite randomly, depending on a last minute whim or based on just one conversation or newspaper article. Obviously these voters with no strong opinion may have been more influenced by campaign spending than other voters.

Sorry to everyone experiencing racism
I was having this conversation with my Nigerian friend the other day. She was saying how bad the Tories were with the High Wizard comments and the fact no paper seemed to be mentioning Tommy was at the leaver march. She recently moved out of London, not too far as they both work in the City. Looking at nursery places and she realised they would be the only non-white family in both classes/yr groups. She was also told by the nursery that the Primary Schools come around and "pick the children". Of course she began to wonder whether they would "pick" her two... She's decided to go private. Something she would never have done had she stayed in London . She at least has a get out plan and has said that if we have another PV and Leave still wins they will go, or if Mogg or Boris get in as PM. They don't want to leave but the fact we've had conversations about racism every time I've spoken to her over the last year has been a turning point. I've known her since I was 6 and will be devastated if she leaves and angry at how this country is changing for the worse.

Tusk really does seem to be lovely.

I'd still say that leave has broadly 2 camps:

Virtually all Tory constituency parties are strongly Leave and these are often quite well heeled.

I think the Home Counties wealthy set, especially those with a long ago military or city background, are a big driver to no deal (because these are people who choose MPs and can afford to fund the stink tanks who are pouring money into promoting no deal).

@Misti I used to live in the Home Counties and can see that too. I'd suggest, although they would hate it, that they are part of Group 1.

From my perspective it has been hugely interesting to see the old class divisions break down further. You'd have a bun fight if you put leavers in a room together, but not if you put remainers in a room.

Sos I’m so sorry you had to endure that.

Downing street says ' we have made serious proposals'.

Let’s hear them then, Theresa.

Part of the ire coming from Group 2 is that they hate charity so headlines like this about people on benefits relying on food banks for baby items really upsets them. It could also be that they didn't like the EU 'charity' for their area and saw it as outsider interference.

The discussion about the fens is interesting. As a child we lived in Hertfordshire and I can remember both my parents calling people out on racist comments. After ther had retired my golden brother moved to the fens when he got a job in Cambridge and they followed him. Now they are hideous ly racist and that was the reason they voted leave - too many muslims stopping us celebrating Christmas apparently. My youngest brother now lives near Spalding and has a bit of a rough time with his Asian partner.

I think I've read all through after a soul destroying NHS frontline 12 hr shift yesterday. I work in a deprived Northern city and just as you think you've got used to the poverty there are days it makes me feel so hopeless. We have some shiny clever expensive kit but for what...

If I missed this being shared I'm sorry - it's the Lammy "speech" from QuestionTime
here

Which leads back to the racism in this country - if ever there was a political leader I'd say Lammy speaks and behaves as one but I think we are too racist - even those who think we aren't - for this guy or someone like him, to become leader of a major political party.

What a roller coaster this week has been. Am headed back to bed with the regal feline. Happy Birthday prettybird and hope it's a good weekend for the various children struggling with peers or with school - you guys are such fab parents to them.

they are part of Group 1.

Don't agree at all. They are often people who have spent a lot of time outside the UK eg my dad and his circle spent a lot of his working career (banking) in Africa and the Middle East.

I think you are forgetting that leave is a Tory project supported by many of the very wealthy, especially those who are retired or whose business interests are mainly ex-EU.

There aren't necessarily a lot of them but they are influential because they can afford to donate.

She was also told by the nursery that the Primary Schools come around and "pick the children".
The nursery is talking rubbish, but as people can see from the school appeal threads here, unless you are in the system, you probably don't realise that.

As for the wealthy Tory areas voting leave - I believe Witney (Cotswolds and Cameron's old seat) was the only rural Tory area which voted Remain. Many people there work in Oxford - with the big industries scientific and university research, major teaching hospitals and the BMW factory - all to be hit by leaving the EU.

I have said this before, one of DS's friends lives in Witney - he voted on a dip, dip, dip basis - so don't let anyone pretend that was an informed vote. I asked DS how the friend voted in the by-election and the GE. "Oh he doesn't vote."

You'd have a bun fight if you put leavers in a room together, but not if you put remainers in a room.

Perhaps not a fight, but certainly mutual incomprehension and even distaste.

Not sure that this is completely true about remainers though. Because I work in a senior position in a large U.K. manufacturing company I know a lot of habitually Tory-voting senior managers who are also remainers. Would your average remain-supporting labour activist not have something to say to them?!

You'd have a bun fight if you put leavers in a room together, but not if you put remainers in a room.

Example: a million plus Remain marchers, very low police presence and no arrests.
A couple of thousand Leave marchers, high police presence and five arrests.