Westminstenders: Compromise is a difficult word

[RedToothBrush]

Today the HoC had a water leak. It closed the house for the day. This isn't without consequence; any hope for the opportunity of Indicative Votes on Monday had cold water poured on it.

Meanwhile talks between talks between May and Corbyn were about as productive as you'd imagine. But apparently they had nice tea and biscuits.

The Cooper Bill, the last minute lock on May getting a extension to prevent no deal, has been in the Lords today. I say it's been in the Lords but Tories have filibuster Ed on procedure for over 6 hours to prevent the chance of it passing the house. Tory whips are timetabled until 6am but the opposition benches have vowed to go to 7.30am. So far the votes to ruin the procedure have failed comfortably so the opposition have the number. Its just a question of time.

The trouble is with the Lords not sitting tomorrow that means the bill won't get passed until Monday and there are fears it won't get royal assent until Tuesday.

The bill doesn't prevent accidental no deal but it would be a barrier to May.

It therefore looks like May's gambit with the EU to get an extension is to say her plan is ongoing talks with Labour for a cross party solution. It won't wash.

No deal looks more and more likely.

I completely agree with this:

David Allen Green
@davidallengreen
Order of Merit please for Donald Tusk, one of the best genuine friends UK has ever had and one, frankly, we don't deserve.

mother The EU will decide during the EU Council - 27 heads of govt - on 10 April whether to grant an extension,
so the communique with official would be that evening

May will present her case for an extension, so I hope by then she has:

• An Order in Council completed to organise EP elections and
• Some sort of plan to develop a resolution to Brexit, plus convince them she could get it approved by the HoC - so agreement with Labour might be mandatory

The EU could set conditions:

• If the UK fails to hold EP elections 23-26 May, then extension ends at 11pm on 26 May

• "Gentleman's agreement" not to interefere with EU business - not to vote against anything that has support from a majority of other member
  Again, Brexit happens right after any UK veto

• Extension to 31 Dec 2019 - at least - with the extension ending as soon as the UK approves a new PD
  (plus ratification of new PD by EP as well, if need be)
  Note:
  this places pressure on ERG to approve the WA asap, because otherwise, they are delaying Brexit, not May,Remainers or the EU

I completely agree with this:

David Allen Green
@davidallengreen
Order of Merit please for Donald Tusk, one of the best genuine friends UK has ever had and one, frankly, we don't deserve

I'd just fix the "we" to "Brexiteers" and "Tory voters"

But yes he has been amazing in recent weeks. Barnier has gone up in my estimation too. Verhofstadt seems to have given up on us, though.

I would tweet them to say thank you (and don't give up on us Guy) but I suspect they never bother reading their tweets to avoid all the abuse.

DGRJim al-Khalilis BBC4 progs on Quantum Physics
Ha - already watched and thoroughly enjoyed. DD1 is off to Uni to study Astrophysics in September (I was that embarrassing parent at the Offer Holder's Day wondering if it was too late to relive my youth)

Also highly recommend Dara O'Brien's children's science books. DD3 - the 7 year old - loves them

Ah Mr Tusk DOES read things. He put a screenshot of David Allen Green's post on Instagram and said "you made my day".

just 💐

this places pressure on ERG to approve the WA asap, because otherwise, they are delaying Brexit, not May,Remainers or the EU

This is completely TM's strategy - only way to prevent Tory split. However the ERG coming round alone won't do it so she needs to give ground to JC to provide cover for Caroline Flint and co. The more ground she gives to JC the more she exposes ERG selling out.

The risk for Labour switchers is the accusation of propping up a "Tory Brexit". This may well be a lot higher than Tory strategy suggests, especially given Remain vote switchers (as previously discussed) which is probably why Emily Thornbury is seeking to bind in PV.

Both parties wise to avoid a GE, different pollsters predict different things

• or voters frequently changing their minds, depending which politician last irritated them

Brexit Ultra vote is 12%, but split between UKIP & Brexit party (plus Tories) so still maybe no seats

Britain Elects@britainelects

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 32% (-4)
LAB: 31% (-2)
LDEM: 12% (+1)
UKIP: 7% (+3)
BREX: 5% (-)
GRN: 4% (-)

via
@YouGov
, 02 - 03 Apr
Chgs. w/ 25 Mar

Seat Calculation

I don't know if their were sufficient Scottish voters in the poll sample to take the predicted 50 seats seriously

there

Just to demonstrate how good Red's threads are: I had an argument with dh this morning as he was claiming that Adam Fleming had just come up with the term flextension (which had been used for the first time last night )

I told him Rubbish that he was wrong as we talked about it on these threads weeks ago - and that I could prove it

Not only was it first mentioned here on 16 March, but we even had a thread a few days later called Flextension

To quote Sheldon: Bazinga yes I know, gloating is not an attractive trait

The Scottish seat share is very sensitive to slight movement in polls - FPTP plus roughly 25% Lab / 25% Tory / 35% SNP gives 50+ SNP seats - used to work the same for Labour before Blair/Brown broke it. There was a LOT of peed off with the SNP sentiment last time round and tactical Tory voting. Now there is an equal amount of peed off with Tories whether Leave or Remain. Struth being on maternity leave is not helping either. The 50+ SNP prediction has been steady in a lot of polls.

Interesting that a swing to UKIP delivers a Lab / LibDem / SNP coalition but I wonder what the price would be - almost certainly PR and IndyRef2?

Have sent an email to 3 of my MEPs (remain supporters obvs) and said I hoped they would stand in next EP elections.

Gave a DGI (damm good ignoring) to the UKIP and Tory leaver.

Tom Newton Dunn: "Remember, June 30 is the extension May also asked for two weeks ago. The EU27 threw that out within an hour, and put May in a room without windows for 5 hours until they came up with their own plan. Expect exactly the same again in Brussels next Weds."

Kevin Maguire: "One year flextension for Britain in Europe could condemn the May-Corbyn talks to(probably inevitable anyway) failure. No urgency"

Haha. Brilliant. I love it when DH comes up with a revelation or goes 'no you are wrong and this will happen' over Brexit and I can go 'but have you seen this?'

Hes wonderful, but he tends to think he's always right, because annoyingly he usually is more than most people (and his arrogance is somewhat justified - he is super smart though socially minded with it).

It can be dreadful for the confidence, so it's nice to see I'm not alone in this. And that these threads, aren't necessarily about Brexit at all, but something quite different in helping women perhaps be a bit more confident to talk about politics with a little more force and conviction behind it. That and just being a bit of a support network.

I think in the long run that's what I'll ultimately take away from it. That's what politics should ultimately be about - thinking about structures and institutions work and how we can understand them and use them to their best for everyone, not just to make a name for yourself.

Flexi- brexie - the new improved non Brexit.

Kevin Maguire: "One year flextension for Britain in Europe could condemn the May-Corbyn talks to(probably inevitable anyway) failure. No urgency"

Except this one year flextension might hinge on their talks having produced something of meaning by Wednesday.

Pretty urgent.

Stewart Jackson: "I'm so on board with the new T May campaign strategy: Corbyn is a mad Marxist & existential threat to the UK. But helping us out of the horlicks we've made of Brexit? Yeah, he's a regular guy, trusted negotiator, great on geoplitical solutions. Obviously. Good luck with that one."

Interesting that a swing to UKIP delivers a Lab / LibDem / SNP coalition but I wonder what the price would be - almost certainly PR and IndyRef2

Quite possibly. Alternatively the SNP might be less keen on quitting the UK if/while they have real influence in government.

PR wouldn't be a price for me, it would be a gain. I might not waste my vote every GE if we had it.

Both parties wise to avoid a GE, different pollsters predict different things

I think the only question is what is YouGovs polling saying ....

I think at least one section of voters
- those most affected by austerity -

had then at least, no particular feelings about the EU,

There are an awful lot of voters who really didn’t care one way or another about the EU. My FiL was a senior civil servant and tells me the reason the Tories never did anything about EU membership before was that polling continually showed it was a non-issue for voters.

And yet here we are now at each other’s throats over it.

At the moment the Daily mail readers are very angry indeed. More so than normal

Bloody hell! That’s hard to imagine!

having if PR is the price then next time round 7% UKIP produces a fair number of UKIP MPs.

My main reason for not supporting SNP is that I'd rather Scotland retain influence at Westminster. There is NO WAY they could sell that to more than half of their supporters who would just vote Labour in that case.

Tide turning ?

www.thepoke.co.uk/2019/04/05/jacob-rees-moog-said-year-long-brexit-delay-glorious-self/

Jacob Rees-Moog said this about a year-long Brexit delay and it’s a glorious self-own

Jacob Rees-Mogg is not overly keen on the prospect of a long extension to the process of Britain leaving the EU.

So naturally he shared his thoughts about it on Twitter.

If a long extension leaves us stuck in the EU we should be as difficult as possible. We could veto any increase in the budget, obstruct the putative EU army and block Mr Macron’s integrationist schemes.

— Jacob Rees-Mogg (<strong>@Jacob</strong><span class="underline">Rees</span>Mogg) April 5, 2019

And thank goodness he did, because as lots of people were only too happy to point out, it rather flew in the face of all his arguments why we so desperately need Brexit in the first place.

Here are 11 of the best.

How strange – isn’t this the same guy who said the UK had no power to do any of these things in the EU and that’s why we had to leave. <a class="break-all" href="https://t.co/FTLD670HBH" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">t.co/FTLD670HBH</a>

— Nicola Sturgeon (<strong>@NicolaSturgeon</strong>) April 5, 2019

Look at this bloody Remainiac getting over-excited at the thought of staying in and having influence over undemocratic European decision making. <a class="break-all" href="https://t.co/L6Bu4AIu7P" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">t.co/L6Bu4AIu7P</a>

— David Baddiel (<strong>@Baddiel</strong>) April 5, 2019

Are you saying we do have significant influence in the EU after all now?

— Mark Gerred  (<strong>@markgerred</strong>) April 5, 2019

Currently discussing Jacob Rees Mogg's new found faith in the UK's ability to exercise enormous power in Brussels on <strong>@LBC</strong>. Do join us.

— James O'Brien (<strong>@mrjamesob</strong>) April 5, 2019

Let’s use powers I repeatedly lied we didn’t have because I’m very upset about something the UK would have to actually request<a class="break-all" href="https://t.co/iPnmcLOkD1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">t.co/iPnmcLOkD1</a>

— James Felton (<strong>*@JimMFelton</strong>*) April 5, 2019

Brexiters: the UK is powerless as an EU Member State
Also Brexiters: the UK can block loads of stuff as an EU Member State <a class="break-all" href="https://t.co/qt0BPZekX8" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">t.co/qt0BPZekX8</a>

— Steve Peers (<strong>@StevePeers</strong>) April 5, 2019

Inside the EU we have control. The power to veto budget increases and block changes that are not in the interests of our country. Just ask Jacob Rees-Mogg. <a class="break-all" href="https://t.co/dsmDKBgrLA" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">t.co/dsmDKBgrLA</a>

— David Lammy (<strong>@DavidLammy</strong>) April 5, 2019

OMG, there it is, so after all it is a democracy, with Veto rights?

— SamArcher77 (<strong>@Archer77Sam</strong>) April 5, 2019

leading Brexiter suddenly notices that, when inside the EU, the UK has quite a lot of power…. <a class="break-all" href="https://t.co/gv6tilR5EZ" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">t.co/gv6tilR5EZ</a>

— Anne Applebaum (<strong>@anneapplebaum</strong>) April 5, 2019

Jacob,

If we have a long extension…

We should do what’s in the British interest – as we always have done within the EU.

Your tweet is a full-on admission of the huge levels of power that we have always held within the EU.

— Mike Galsworthy (<strong>@mikegalsworthy</strong>) April 5, 2019

U ok hun?

— David Allen Green (<strong>@davidallengreen</strong>) April 5, 2019

To conclude …

2016: we hold all the cards
2019: we should shit the bed for attention <a class="break-all" href="https://t.co/iPnmcLOkD1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">t.co/iPnmcLOkD1</a>

— James Felton (<strong>*@JimMFelton</strong>*) April 5, 2019

Oh, and this.

I do not want to keep banging on about brexit, but I just get exasperated. Look at the tweet below – this overgrown schoolboy (surely whichever side of the debate you are on you’d agree this is nothing more than a tantrum) is a potential prime minister. Where are the grown-ups? <a class="break-all" href="https://t.co/xMBdU8qdZa" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">t.co/xMBdU8qdZa</a>

— Brian Cox (<strong>@ProfBrianCox</strong>) April 5, 2019

Oh, go on then.

Such a pitiless embarrassment. Reducing Britain to the status of a bawling child on the world stage, good for nothing but smearing shit its own face and everyone else's. <a class="break-all" href="https://t.co/WM0CO4hvMO" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">t.co/WM0CO4hvMO</a>

— Ian Dunt (<strong>@IanDunt</strong>) April 5, 2019

I'm not sure how a SNP/ anyone coalition that was conditional on an indyref would work... if it was held within that parliament and yes won - the government would probably fall (not least because the SNP would have to vacate Westminster) so why would their partner ever agree to that? But they can't promise to do it in the next parliament because no parliament can bind it's successor. So - when would the indy ref happen?
Same day as the next GE maybe?

I remember having a conversation with DH very shortly after the referendum where I was referencing Cambridge Analytica etc (all from these threads!) and being really surprised my (very intelligent and well read ) DH didn’t know what I was talking about.

I’m not sure if he paid attention/remembered but I felt very smug when it was mainstream news AGES later.

He does now sometimes come to me me for updates what’s going on with Brexit but he really doesn’t understand my fascination. With all the twists and turns in the tale.