Westminstenders: The May Compromise

[RedToothBrush]

After a marathon cabinet meeting, which no one seems to have resigned from, May has had another podium moment.

This time instead of blaming everyone but herself, she's gone for the 'let's compromise approach' to Corbyn.

This comes after Nick Boles crossed the floor saying his side wasn't prepared to compromise on anything after May secretly whipped on a 'free' vote against him.

May also said she we needed more of an extension to the 22nd May but without promise of EU elections this means No Deal inevitable if May can't pass the WA by then. Provided EU allow an extension until then without EU elections.

She also hinted at respecting a majority idea over indicative votes, if she and Corbyn fail to agree - remembering she tried successfully to sabotage that last night.

Already many are saying this is a trap to ensnare others into the mess that is Brexit in the blame game. With no deal ultimately the end goal.

The idea that May can find a compromise with Corbyn seems a fantasy.

And the EU might have every reason to refuse a longer extension under the circumstances.

For May to compromise she surely would have to break the Tories to do it as Labour will only go for a soft option which is unacceptable to the ERG. Unless her idea of compromise is simply its the WA or No deal which it seems hard to conceive Labour going near with the realistic prospect of the next PM being a hardliner.

All in all it seems more likely to be a framing exercise in damage limitation rather than something which has more substance and a realistic prospect of working. And if that's really the case, it certainly would explain why no one's resigned yet.

Indicative Votes 3 and a pretty dodgy Cooper Amendment designed to be a last ditch attempt to prevent no deal are both scheduled.

Its desparation stakes and the EU more or less have us down as a failed state. And the pro Brexit bombs don't really add much optimist to the mood.

I was thinking the same The80s. 🦟

Bruno Waterfield @brunobrussels
Sources tell me EU will be open to a long extension, commitment to hold European elections, with a guillotine and expiry upon ratification

No I don't understand either

www.itv.com/news/2019-04-02/prime-minister-risks-splitting-her-party-to-avoid-no-deal-brexit-in-10-days/
Prime Minister risks splitting her party to avoid no-deal Brexit in 10 days

Another interesting detail from the FT article is:

Although about a dozen ministers professed to be relaxed about the UK crashing out of the EU without an agreement, in private the mood was different. “Everyone is frightened to death about it,” said one aide to a Eurosceptic minister.

Which tallies with the Secret Brexit Diary writers take from within Labour that the majority would revoke if they could.

That makes sense to me. You can have, say, a year, but if a deal is agreed and ratified by the EU27 in 3 months, that's when you go.

In other words, anything to solve a no deal, but they want rid ASAP. Understandable.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/02/macho-drama-queens-brexit-steve-baker-mark-francois

Today is actually fascinating.

Maybe May is so utterly fucked off with the ERG, it's worth trashing the Tories for some time to blow them apart. Machiavellian indeed.

She also knows that with Corbyn at the helm, all hope may not be lost for the Tories, but she's willing to risk it as she's fed up and just wants out. And this is the way to do it.

Beth Rigby@bethrigby
Iain Duncan Smith tells me: “This is an utter disaster. Gove is utterly wrong. We are just about to legitimize Corbyn. It is appalling.”

BTW Gove is from the Hannan school of Leavers. Hannan has been pro soft Brexit for a long while. Gove has never been ERG in thought on Brexit.

Point being no Brexit could lead to social unrest

There's been no assassinations of MPs, terrorist attacks on train lines, MPs and journalists unable to live in their homes because of death threats or a few thousand incontinent fascists wrecking Parliament Square this week, during the brexit.?

It's been so peaceful since June 2016.

This 100% proves that Project Fear is Project Reality.

The risk is No Deal is too great. Worse than the Tory party splitting.

If she’s playing it straight tonight then I have a little bit of respect for her. She has left it late but finally she may be doing something right.

Red As I'd expect, the EU would accept a long extension, provided the UK has already legislated for EP elections
If Corbyn & May reach earlier agreement, then Brexit can be earlier than the end of extension.

It's a risk for the EU of keeping E27 businesses hanging on, increasing costs
However, they want an agreement that will hold until Brexit and last for the length of transition too

So, for them that requires consensus, cross-party agreement - especially the support of the party that could form the next government

imo, the chances of the Tory party tering itself to pieces and being slaughtered at both the local elections and next GE have risen astronomically

Ît was always a risk
May knew this would happen if she chose soft Brexit over No Deal, but looks like she has made her choice

Let's see if she chickens out again, or is toppled, before we celebrate possible sanity returning to politics though
Anything could still happen

@mattholehouse
May strongly indicates she’s looking for a long extension, beyond May 22, which could then be guillotined once WA is ratified - she hopes before EU extension

Your missing guillotine Red

I don't think she knows what straight is anymore!

Woman are you beginning to descend into sarcasm?

I don’t think May was ever a no-dealer, despite her antics over the last couple of years. She is however a Conservative through and through and for her that is as strong as religious belief. No one like her rises as far as she has without extraordinary commitment - she’s quite unlike many of her contemporaries, not least of all in being a woman. Hence her near suicidal manoeuvres to keep party together.
Neither do I think JC is a no-dealer, despite being eurosceptic. His pronouncements with regard to avoiding a no deal, keeping near alignment with the Single Market and necessity for a Customs Union ring true (even if scripted by others). Also, as Nick Boles said, Labour has shown itself more willing to compromise than the Conservatives.
Perhaps at this insanely late date, if May has dumped the ERG, something can be worked out. When I lose faith in miracles, I think of Martin McGuinness and Ian Paisley...well one has to hope. And neither Corbyn nor May is young. Sorting this out would be an achievement that would gain both lasting plaudits, and they could retire gracefully. (I mention the age thing as an older person myself. Sometimes when old one can take risks one wouldn’t when younger.)

twitter.com/TomBoadle/status/1113121363064246273
This looks suspiciously like a drug deal outside Number 10.

So she is trying to appease Labour by offering a soft Brexit, yet in doing so, will piss off the right wing of her own party’s-yes?

What could go wrong?

James Forsyth @jgforsyth
HMG’s expectation is that the EU will offer the UK a longish extension and insist this country prepares for the European Parliament elections. But the U.K. will be able to end the extension, and cancel EP elections, as soon as it gets the withdrawal deal legislation through

OK compare this with what Bruno Waterfield said

Bruno Waterfield @brunobrussels
Sources tell me EU will be open to a long extension, commitment to hold European elections, with a guillotine and expiry upon ratification

Thats the political editor of the Spectator and Columnist at the sun James Forsyth and Bruno Waterfield Brussels correspondent for the Times saying the same thing from the Government end and the EU end.

That's the plan. They've talked. They are on the same page.

Now May has to get it through parliament. May CAN NOT get EU elections and her deal through parliament WITHOUT labour. Its impossible.

My point being this does look like a legitimate attempt at a cross party effort to stop no deal.

May is trying to sting Labour in the process but in theory she'd have other course of action anyway.

Will it go anywhere?

tatiana The majority of Labour might Revoke if they were free to do so
but 160 Tories not only demand Brexit, but the No Deal version of it

The Tory ideology of rolling back the welfare state and letting the uber-wealthy loot the country without pesky regulations
mean that most of their MPs genuinely want Brexit

Brexiters and eurosceptics have largely taken over the party - hardly any Tory MPs are genuinely pro-EU
Most of those opposing hard Brexit just grudgingly accept that it is too damaging

If you look back even to 2005 and the Tory leadership election
Ken Clark was doomed to come last in the MPs ballot, because he is openly pro-EU

I’m not convinced May is not a No Dealer, I think she’d just prefer to go down as the worst PM of the last 300 years, rather than of all time.

Pin the tail on the Lexit Donkey might help.

Aspiring to it! pesty.

She was hoping Parliament would blink and vote for the WA, but it didn't, so she's had to blink as actually she really doesn't want no deal and this is actually more important than pandering to the ERG.

She was NEVER going to win everyone over in her party, the views are too disparate and range from hard remain to hard leave. Whatever she did would destroy the party.

So, perhaps she finally is thinking about the country.

I've a feeling this has probably broken her and once it's done she'll probably sleep for a week straight!

It was always a poisoned chalice, but she wanted it, so she has to take responsibility for the end result.