Westminstenders: The May Compromise

[RedToothBrush]

After a marathon cabinet meeting, which no one seems to have resigned from, May has had another podium moment.

This time instead of blaming everyone but herself, she's gone for the 'let's compromise approach' to Corbyn.

This comes after Nick Boles crossed the floor saying his side wasn't prepared to compromise on anything after May secretly whipped on a 'free' vote against him.

May also said she we needed more of an extension to the 22nd May but without promise of EU elections this means No Deal inevitable if May can't pass the WA by then. Provided EU allow an extension until then without EU elections.

She also hinted at respecting a majority idea over indicative votes, if she and Corbyn fail to agree - remembering she tried successfully to sabotage that last night.

Already many are saying this is a trap to ensnare others into the mess that is Brexit in the blame game. With no deal ultimately the end goal.

The idea that May can find a compromise with Corbyn seems a fantasy.

And the EU might have every reason to refuse a longer extension under the circumstances.

For May to compromise she surely would have to break the Tories to do it as Labour will only go for a soft option which is unacceptable to the ERG. Unless her idea of compromise is simply its the WA or No deal which it seems hard to conceive Labour going near with the realistic prospect of the next PM being a hardliner.

All in all it seems more likely to be a framing exercise in damage limitation rather than something which has more substance and a realistic prospect of working. And if that's really the case, it certainly would explain why no one's resigned yet.

Indicative Votes 3 and a pretty dodgy Cooper Amendment designed to be a last ditch attempt to prevent no deal are both scheduled.

Its desparation stakes and the EU more or less have us down as a failed state. And the pro Brexit bombs don't really add much optimist to the mood.

tobee I visualise JC as the office chancer who has zero qualifications, is pretty dim, does below minimum work and is always skiving off,
but dreams of becoming CEO of the whole company

He's got the ambition, just not the talent, the qualifications or the discipline to work for it

Being PM is bloody hard work & stressful - look at how they all age;
Blair was especially a big deterioration from that fresh-faced young charmer to the haunted old wreck

I just wished TM had put her hand across the aisle in 2016 ( sigh).

She's no more sincere now doing it than she was insincere not doing it.

She doesn't give a toss about a single person that voted Labour - and a decent opposition Leader would be able to blow her out of the water in seconds.

Part of Laura K tweet I agree with:

A lot of doubt in Cabinet tonight, and as ever, will Tory party implode - always been hypothetically possible May could get deal thro with cross party votes, then not been able to govern afterwards

And what is this “compromise” going to be?

A - Customs Union? 80% of Tories don’t support it and enough Brexit ultras would vote down the Government in a no-confidence vote if TM accepted it (see Steve Baker’s comments)

B - Common Market 2.0? The same as Customs Union but x2! Even many Brexiteers prefer staying in the EU to this option!

C - Withdrawal Agreement with a bit of few cosmetic tinkering around the edges? JC would never in a million years support the WA! He’d play hardball and insist on a Soft Brexit and wait for either:

a) May to crack and accept CU or CM2 and the Tory ultras bring down her Government or

b) May stiffens her resolve and goes for a “No Deal”, and the Tory europhiles bring down her Government.

The Government have been check-mated. They’ve finally realised it and are trying to bring JC down with them if they can.

Laura Kuenssberg @ bbclaurak
1. Several Cabinet sources say crystal clear No 10 is genuine about conceding to Labour demands in order to get it thro - one minister present says it's 'you want a soft brexit? Here it is, you help shape it' - says Chief whip read out labour's '6 tests twice during the meeting

2. 2 big probs - will Labour be genuine and can they trust them? A lot of doubt in Cabinet tonight, and as ever, will Tory party implode - always been hypothetically possible May could get deal thro with cross party votes, then not been able to govern afterwards

3. Lots of dispute about longer delays - loyal sources claiming could still be May 22nd - but others say not true - a) it will be EU, not UK that decides length, but b) UK could beat the deadline as and when deal and legislation goes thro

4. What is however, finally clear, (in as much as anything ever stays the same in this story) the PM has chosen moving to softer Brexit rather than leaving without a deal - even tho for a LONG time she legitimised that as an option to please the party

Christopher Hope@christopherhope
There is a real end of days feeling now about the Conservative party. Brexit has left its key players exhausted. One ERG source tells me: “If she’s PM this time next week, Corbyn will be in No 10 by next month at the latest.”

Tom peck @ tompeck
I’m hearing from a very well placed source that it is only fucking Tuesday.

It must feel like a scene from Apocalypse Now in the HoC at the moment...

The Government have been check-mated. They’ve finally realised it and are trying to bring JC down with them if they can.

No. Checkmate is the end of the game.

This is closer to stalemate, where neither side can make a legal move.

If time were not of the essence, it has the potential to become perpetual check - which I am sure has featured as a backdrop to many seminal sci-fi classics.

Historians might prefer the analogy of the Punic Wars (there's a Stewart Lee level obscure reference to Corbyn on Googlebox watching "Mastermind" there, for aficionados )

True BigChoc. I'm sure he dreamt of being pm when he was young but at 69 after all those care free years carping on the sidelines. Vanity and memories of his youth made him stand . And he wouldn't have expected to have one.

I always think about the fact he didn't bother finishing his degree.

Tory civil war

Red leading on from Hope's tweet TM and JC could do a house share

From the FT article:

if cross-party talks failed, she would hold a run-off in the Commons between her thrice-rejected Brexit deal and a so-far undefined alternative — almost certain to be a softer option including a customs union with the EU.

We know how that will turn out: both will be voted down. 😂

Pmk

He wouldn't have expected to have won. Obviously

James Forsyth @jgforsyth
Understand that government wants this whole process, including any Commons votes, done this week. The next 72 hours are going to be quite something

Oh happy days!

Can I have next week off please?

Thanks everyone for all the thoughts and updates. Am off to sleep. Let's see what tomorrow brings 🤔

This isn’t going to work: we will just hit a new stalemate.

On the plus side I can’t see how the Tory party will survive this.

You know what, I also want it sorted. I want to eat my sodding Brexit stash!

And you deserve a week off, Red; you've been a real stalwart.

I'd love to be a fly on the wall at that meeting. Esp as TM knows the ERG mob will be snarling away in the background.

Wonder what the Tory party will look like if it doesn't survive? Can't imagine it yet!

You deserve a holiday red - I don't know how you do it

No. Checkmate is the end of the game. This is closer to stalemate, where neither side can make a legal move.

But “stalemate” counts as a draw.... This is “checkmate” as May’s Government and her policy is defeated.... or perhaps more accurately, to stretch the chess analogy further, it’s check-mate in 2-3 moves. Sure, she can make a (very) few more moves... but none of her options don’t end up in defeat.

Katy Balls @ katyballs
All is not well in Tory party tonight – how ministers clashed at heated Cabinet over soft Brexit plan
Spectator article on cabinet meeting

Claire Perry suggested those pushing for a harder Brexit were 'righty-tightys'

Geoffrey Cox told Claire Perry to simmer down and was accused of mansplaining. He apologised

Michael Gove and Geoffrey Cox credited by soft Brexit side for turning the tide – environment secretary said colleagues had to deal with the facts

Andrea Leadsom and Gavin Williamson most visibly angry at the idea to put – as many saw it – opposition before party

Liz Truss called for a social and economic analysis of risk of staying in EU. Dismissed by Philip Hammond. Point being no Brexit could lead to social unrest and a Corbyn government

May could be worried about being the one voted as "worst ever UK PM" in future polls !

She tried all along to keep the Tory party together.
Now looks like she can't, so she may have gone for her "Legacy / place in history"

Different sources still spinning Cabinet numbers, but clear split

Sam Coates Times@SamCoatesTimes

How another cabinet source perceives the views of cabinet ministers

Explicitly against an extension - 4
Unspecific but not pro extension - 6
Pro extension but only if short - 2
Pro extension - 15
......
Cabinet

Numbers happy with some form of extension (as opposed to a long extension) more favourable to May, cabinet sources say, at 17 to 4.

Of the 17, only 2 were particularly concerned with a long extension.
Two Jeremy Wright and James Brokenshire only want short extension
.....

Cabinet:

• Philip Hammond argued UK needs to keep option of a longer A50 extension open, as long as we can leave during it

Julian Smith outlined Labour’s Brexit alternatives, said ‘difficult decisions’ ahead. Likely to include 2nd ref

• Sounds like Cab backed short extension