Westminstenders: The May Compromise

[RedToothBrush]

After a marathon cabinet meeting, which no one seems to have resigned from, May has had another podium moment.

This time instead of blaming everyone but herself, she's gone for the 'let's compromise approach' to Corbyn.

This comes after Nick Boles crossed the floor saying his side wasn't prepared to compromise on anything after May secretly whipped on a 'free' vote against him.

May also said she we needed more of an extension to the 22nd May but without promise of EU elections this means No Deal inevitable if May can't pass the WA by then. Provided EU allow an extension until then without EU elections.

She also hinted at respecting a majority idea over indicative votes, if she and Corbyn fail to agree - remembering she tried successfully to sabotage that last night.

Already many are saying this is a trap to ensnare others into the mess that is Brexit in the blame game. With no deal ultimately the end goal.

The idea that May can find a compromise with Corbyn seems a fantasy.

And the EU might have every reason to refuse a longer extension under the circumstances.

For May to compromise she surely would have to break the Tories to do it as Labour will only go for a soft option which is unacceptable to the ERG. Unless her idea of compromise is simply its the WA or No deal which it seems hard to conceive Labour going near with the realistic prospect of the next PM being a hardliner.

All in all it seems more likely to be a framing exercise in damage limitation rather than something which has more substance and a realistic prospect of working. And if that's really the case, it certainly would explain why no one's resigned yet.

Indicative Votes 3 and a pretty dodgy Cooper Amendment designed to be a last ditch attempt to prevent no deal are both scheduled.

Its desparation stakes and the EU more or less have us down as a failed state. And the pro Brexit bombs don't really add much optimist to the mood.

Thanks again again Red!

My brain hurts. 😩

user If we leave with No Deal, the EU said they would require us to accept the WA anyway,
before they would start negotiations on a future trade deal

So instead of negotiating after an agreed Brexit, during transition and retaining all EU benefits,
the UK after No Deal would be trying to negotiate while the economy is collapsing about our ears

Even brilliant negotiators can't achieve a good deal in those circumstances.

I did say ERG member was on Sky and I knew that he knew about plan to set up JC while TM tries out her cunning plan.

Look we all know JC isn't the brightest spark and I think we all know about TMs traps.

So says a JC supporter. Ringing endorsement that one.

Just a reminder that JC has ambition to be PM. Yet you think its OK he can be outfoxed by a May trap cos he ain't that bright... Okkkkkayyyyy thennn.

It might be fine if he wanted to be head of the school union or whatever but we are talking leader of the country who has to deal with the likes of Trump and Putin who see it as their job to outwit other nations in order to exploit them.

I have a sceptical cat this evening.

Today 19:39 Sostenueto

ERG are on now on Sky and its definitely a set up. I see right through it. Framing JC like they have means no one has to resign from cabinet. Fuck fuck fuck to TM.angry

red funnily enough I don't support JC at all. But I thought it worth while pointing out TMs skulduggery at all times. TM is the worst PM of all time and JC us the worst opposition leader if all time and neither if them deserves to be PM OK?

My MP is a Cabinet Member who toes the party line so no point contacting him.

However I have just sent my first email to an MP/MEP ever.

To my wonderful MEP Catherine Bearder. Basically saying...I realise you will have already worked this out and Tusk/Barnier will already suspect but I think this is a trap to get us beyond the point of no return (12th) to force TMs deal vs. no deal and therefore circumvent Parliamentary sovereignty. Can you reassure me that Tusk et al will see through this and put the relevant conditions in place?

To be clear - I don't have an issue with her putting a 'her deal vs. No deal' to Parliament. She's within her rights to do so as long as she abides by the Erskine May rules somehow.

Just not by forcing those being the only two options by deceit and 'politicking'.

Let's hope the telegraph source is correct ...

Peter Foster@pmdfoster
So what did @theresamay mean?

• am told she is NOT setting new 'no deal' cliff by May 22, as some have wondered

@IanDunt and others.

• wants to avoid EP elex, but these are not ruled out

(@DLidington letter still stands) 1/2

• so still aiming for deal by EUCO, as pretext for May 22 XT, but Corbyn will be blamed if not.

So blame game is part of this.

• But EU side clear that they May still needs clarity by EUCO. It must be U.K. decision to go for EP elex, no-one else’s. 2/2

.... This is key. Getting same messages.

May 22 needs to be unlocked by deal - and proper majority.
....
Mujtaba Rahman@MijEurope

I'm hearing a fairly consistent message from EU capitals:

for 22 May extension, there must be a positive MV(X) by next Weds #EUCO (not fully ratified WA). So Corbyn or indicative votes process has to deliver in 1 week

TM and her cabinet know that Brexit will destroy the Government... there is simply no way through with Parliament as it is. So their calculation is that if they are going down, they should do their damnedest to drag JC down with them by embroiling him as much as possible with the mess....

Sorry about typos tremors set in my apologies.

An alternative view tgread

Lewis Goodall @lewis_goodall
She is not endorsing no deal. PM is going to ask for another extension of A50.

Offering talks with Jeremy Corbyn.

Not about the WA- but on the political declaration. To be discussed before next week.

Says if they cannot agree then they are willing to ask parliament for a decision and "govt will abide by that decision". That is important. She's never said that before.

7 and a half hours of cabinet for a statement which didn't last 7 minutes.

She's trying to put the ball in Corbyn's court.

Big question is now- does Corbyn insist on a ratification referendum?

It will be difficult for him not to do so.

She's trying to put the ball in Corbyn's court.

Big question is now- does Corbyn insist on a ratification referendum?

It will be difficult for him not to do so.

Brexiters will be deeply unhappy about that statement. She has chosen compromise, something she has long eschewed.

I would say that off the back of that the chances of a referendum are going through the roof.

I'd be amazed if some leadership candidates in cabinet don't resign after that.

PM is more likely to get A50 extension after that. Her pitch to the EU is clearly, I'm giving decision making ability to parliament. I'm bringing leader of opp in to see what we can agree on.

In the meantime the Tory party is likely to implode.

What a difference a fortnight makes. No lecturing of MPs, no harrying of parliament. Consensual, solid, calm. May- at last- has finally chosen a side.

The question is- will her cabinet go with her?

What a difference a fortnight makes. No lecturing of MPs, no harrying of parliament. Consensual, solid, calm. May- at last- has finally chosen a side.

The question is- will her cabinet go with her?

Also no plans to bring back her deal as it is.

Parliamentary reality has clearly dawned.

In another sense, on A50 she hasn't actually asked for anything she hasn't already got. If a deal can be passed before next week she would get an extension til May 22nd anyway.

May also taking a big gamble. Her govt has a working majority of six. The ERG could bring down the govt.

Perhaps May reckons that Labour won't table conf vote while talks are ongoing.

And that Tiggers etc won't vote against insulating her a bit.

What has liberated May- that she is going- is also the seeds of the problem with what she is offering Corbyn.

Neither Corbyn nor Labour can be assured whatever they agree will survive a new (ERG) Tory leader. The guarantees will need to be iron clad, prob with referendum.

But the May 22nd deadline is nonsense. It will be longer than that and we will end up contesting EU elections.

And I’m sure she knows that.

I suppose there are two possibilities which explain this change of mind.

One is it’s a trap for Corbyn.

The other is that this is the real May, she realises her time is up and she’s playing for history and given she can’t be removed easily, the Tories can’t stop her.

Hmmm Red. I've never really been convinced Corbyn does want to be pm. Too much like work for a start.

David Phinnemore @Dphinnemore
'Although about a dozen ministers professed to be relaxed about the UK crashing out of the EU without an agreement, in private the mood was different. “Everyone is frightened to death about it,” said one aide to a Eurosceptic minister.'
ft story

{but we are talking leader of the country who has to deal with the likes of Trump and Putin}

That should be in bold.
At the moment the UK (presumably) will want to deal with the EU who are currently very close trade partners and who have significant numbers of citizens in each others territory. The UK are obviously sorely trying the EU's patience but ultimately want a close working relationship to mutual benefit. In the future, if the UK is hard 'out' it will need to get decent deals with the USA (OK) and Russia/China/ others who will negotiate hard and don't have the citizen aspects to restrict their firmness. Difficult to see either May or Corbyn being both skilled and 'hard' enough.

wheresmymojo I'll sign letter!

JC didn't even have ambition to be party leader. He's as bright as anyone in Mays cabinet just not as conniving.

Ôr the cabinet blinked at No deal
and at the Tory party going down as the party that permanently damaged the economy and relegated the Uk to the minor leagues

Only whipping for EP elections will convince me that this is the case and that May - and the Cabinet - are sincere about trying to get a cross-party Brexit

Bruno Waterfield @brunobrussels
^May appears to have hidden acquiesence to a long extension behind a date that is not a real cut off

Extension is indefinite - "as short as possible... ends when we pass a deal"
22 May is entirely aspirational - "would want to.. ensure it is passed before 22 May"^

Elements your cat is gorgeous!

Nothing making me feel better yet. Agree Corbyn has been a big part of the problem so far and am finding it hard to believe he could after all this time be part of a way forward. Happy to be surprised but worry about the future costs if he does. The Tories had major success for blaming previous Labour Governments so guess they were always going to try. Would love to think they will fail but they’re like Teflon.

However my Dad who is a Leaver was on phone whilst all this going on explaining about a joke his friend sent him about the Government which was surprising. DH putting in further prescription and I’m hopeful my Brexit chickens will start laying. One sang the egg song and the others looked at her like most people look at May, with incredulous expressions on their faces as if to say ‘I just can’t believe she’s doing that’. I might rename her..

I'd advise buying shorts on GBP, like nige and the ERG
www.biedex.com/gbp-usd-traders-profit-from-shorts

Of course it would be most interesting if the EU bought shorts and then said, What part of no short can kicking extension did you not understand? They could fund themselves from the profits for a decade (so long as they did not get done for insider trading).

.

I just wished TM had put her hand across the aisle in 2016 ( sigh). Agree mostly with red either a trap and/or she knows her time is up. But she really does want to pull labour down first. A GE 99% sure now in June.

PMK