Westminstenders: For Whom the Bell Tolls

[RedToothBrush]

Although another round of Indicative Votes is scheduled, arguably the chance for a soft Brexit has gone for two reasons.

Parliament was unable to show a majority because those on the opposition benches were too busy saying 'I want this but only on these terms' or still being too unwilling to compromise. Thus the opportunity and point for a third round starts to look weak.

The second is that Tory MPs were resolute in an opposition to a soft Brexit.

Unless May decides to be the next Robert Peel and go for a soft Brexit on the back of opposition vote its not going to happen.

This leaves May's deal as it stands or no deal.

May seems to have actually lost a few supporters of her deal since Friday, and given the performance of the opposition tonight and the prospect of round 3 of indicative votes they will still be unwilling to go for May's deal.

Which leaves no deal.

There is talk of a managed no deal. There is no such thing. The EU plan for that is essentially to push us into the deal in order to get a trading relationship.

And that will push us closer to the us. Which is what many torys want. And what polling seems to suggest they will have surprising support for.

Sorry folks but it don't look great tonight.

The opposition benches may look back on tonight and think they screwed it. I hope I'm wrong. But I fear tonight might have sealed our fate.

Tomorrow may has a 5hr cabinet. And a secret document dmfor the cabinet to study first.

It's going to get bumpy from here on in...

I’d still rather May
That’s how much I don’t want Corbyn!

I must be missing something as I feel more positive after that speech. Surely the WA plus a soft Brexit of either a customs union or preferably Common Market 2.0 would be the most likely outcome from this approach (if the EU accepts the extension request)? As these options are those most likely to get a majority on board? The WA was never really the problem, that was the PD.

We thought she might announce no deal but she didn't. And she didn't mention her deal either (the PD part of it anyway).

She has been told that the (month of) May extension requires Parliament to agree to a material change.

She is either supremely Machiavellian or just plain doolally.

(know what I think)

I don't trust Theresa May or the Tories at fucking all. This announcement might be hogwash to cover the fact that she is actively going for no-deal. But it also might be her first tiny step back from the abyss.
There is too little information to tell so far.

Do you think she's mentioned this to Corbyn or is he eating his tea and has dropped his fork with shock?
I laughed alot at that! Because I can totally see it being true.

Ha I can imagine him too

Sorry lurked for a while and de-lurking.

I think the EU needs the WA. Without it there's only one option no deal crash out, and then try and form a relationship which could take a decade at best. The WA means we have exited, but with limited or little upheaval for all the member states. This is why it has been seperated from the declaration I think.

So what the government are saying, agree to the mediation before we agree the divorce and long term relationship.

If we crash out with no deal gov will blame Corbyn, Corbyn will blame gov...

I think at this point in the game, agree the WA. Then a referendum on the deal choices. But remember you can't go back to leave or remain that's been done. Hash out a Norway deal, then go to a referendum Norway plus or full membership in say 5 years time once the dust has settled. Public will vote for EU membership having still a somewhat fresh memory of this crisis. Bish bash bosh 60months as an outcast and back in having never really left just sat in limbo under a WA.

I will await the EU response with baited breath.

I do hope Jeremy didn’t plan a nice evening down the allotment tonight.

If she does somehow get her extension through til 22 may and no EU elections then that means a huge cliff edge. Bigger than 29th and 12th. No room to manoeuvre due to election issue

She said we have to have a reason for an extension..,(which we know) but did she say what it was?

Who's looking after Corbyn's brain tonight?

Is it Seamus Milne or Jon Landesmann?

So, will the EU27 tell her to fuck off when she requests another short extension and only agree to a long one, or none? The UK would retain the right to revoke A50 during any extension, which could cause massive trouble.

All Corbyn wants is a general election. He has sat on the fence and changed his mind time and time again. He doesn’t care about the Leave vote. He will bankrupt this country with his communist ideals. The real danger though is McDonnell.

I think she just kicked the can down the road again... everyone who has spoken to her has said she's immovable. Will JC be able to change her mind ... no. Then she'll blame him

Her reason for the extension is a chat with JC.

Pretzels I am on my 10th personalised email.

I used to not know how the EU worked, I have only ever once voted in a GE and once in the ref.

Wtf has happened to me?

What have you people done to me?

Who am i?

😂

Do you think she's mentioned this to Corbyn or is he eating his tea and has dropped his fork with shock?

That made me laugh out loud.

I'm no Corbyn fan but it can't get any worse.

I fear that will be interpreted by the fates (or the government) as a challenge. I am now tapping every wooden surface i can find.

I think the EU will demand a long extension, or nothing.

She is just pissing about. This is no kind of plan fgs. God, it's so embarrassing to be English these days.

The EU will have to really dig deep to let that go as a reason for an extension

Tony Connolly, who usually has good info, tweeting that initial reaction in Brussels not good.

The EU will do what they did last time she rocked up without a plan and decide a plan for her. What more proof do leavers need that we need the EU 🤯

If JC falls for this he is more stupid than thought...

Her tone was better though- no more swivel eyed attacking of Parliament.

Slightly (very slightly) more humile... made up word based on humility.