Westminstenders: For Whom the Bell Tolls

[RedToothBrush]

Although another round of Indicative Votes is scheduled, arguably the chance for a soft Brexit has gone for two reasons.

Parliament was unable to show a majority because those on the opposition benches were too busy saying 'I want this but only on these terms' or still being too unwilling to compromise. Thus the opportunity and point for a third round starts to look weak.

The second is that Tory MPs were resolute in an opposition to a soft Brexit.

Unless May decides to be the next Robert Peel and go for a soft Brexit on the back of opposition vote its not going to happen.

This leaves May's deal as it stands or no deal.

May seems to have actually lost a few supporters of her deal since Friday, and given the performance of the opposition tonight and the prospect of round 3 of indicative votes they will still be unwilling to go for May's deal.

Which leaves no deal.

There is talk of a managed no deal. There is no such thing. The EU plan for that is essentially to push us into the deal in order to get a trading relationship.

And that will push us closer to the us. Which is what many torys want. And what polling seems to suggest they will have surprising support for.

Sorry folks but it don't look great tonight.

The opposition benches may look back on tonight and think they screwed it. I hope I'm wrong. But I fear tonight might have sealed our fate.

Tomorrow may has a 5hr cabinet. And a secret document dmfor the cabinet to study first.

It's going to get bumpy from here on in...

amp.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/02/mps-prepare-for-race-to-replace-john-bercow-as-commons-speaker?CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium=&utm_source=Twitter&__twitter_impression=true
MPs prepare for race to replace John Bercow as Commons Speaker
Former Labour ministers Chris Bryant, Harriet Harman, Meg Hillier and Rosie Winterton in frame for powerful role

Oh dear, Jo Maugham finding lots of holes in Letwin-Cooper motion

Weimar ...

I always remember a photo from the Weimar chapter of my school history books of an old man pushing a wheelbarrow full of (worthless) bank notes, to use a fuel or something.

We went to a museum in Göttingen on a school trip and they had a wheelbarrow full of notes to buy a loaf of bread as part of their exhibition on the Weimar. It always stuck in my head because of one of my classmates managed to lose his sandwich filling (salami and cheese...no clue how as he still had the rye bread and the paper it was wrapped in) and one of the staff turned up holding it and pointed out how careless he'd been especially in the context of what we were looking at.

If only we taught history properly maybe we wouldn't be in this mess.

What exactly is a confirmatory referendum then?

At this stage I am trying for a measure of detachment in order to preserve my sanity and workload. It's like last-man-standing with musical chairs.

The scramble is on for any alternative to crashing out.

What exactly is a confirmatory referendum then?

The people's vote in face saving language. But who cares what they call it if they give us one?

I’ll take one of those

What exactly is a confirmatory referendum then?

The MPs vote through a deal and then afterwards there is a public referendum on that deal vs remain (hopefully). Idea is to get the republic to confirm they’re happy with the deal

The MPs vote through a deal and then afterwards there is a public referendum on that deal vs remain (hopefully). Idea is to get the republic to confirm they’re happy with the deal

1. and if the public aren't ?
2. Is this an excuse to have a referendum without revoke/remain as an option ?

Soubry last night (and every other PV pusher)
They want WA versus Remain on basis WA so bad Remain would stomp home.

Justification was that WA would have been endorsed by EU, Govt and Parliament and so legitimately the "best" form of Brexit available. However 2 problems:

1. Now even if squeaks home v hard to argue legitimacy
2. Large proportion of Brexiters reject it as an actual Brexit and would abstain from a vote.

My deal supporting MP has been crowing over Twitter about how PV should just go away as should soft Brexit and we should all crack on with WA.
He sees no irony in saying there should be a 4th vote in parliament for WA but not one in the country.
He seems more scared of a PV than anything else.

Could have been made for where we are now...

.

Completely agree with Jo Maugham
I would have voted for Joanna Cherry option last night. even more . In fact if I were TM I would adopt it as a way to force her detractors to choose rather than a straight Deal / Revoke with her endorsing a position.

The MPs vote through a deal and then afterwards there is a public referendum on that deal vs remain (hopefully). Idea is to get the republic to confirm they’re happy with the deal

But it’s too late by then-a totally hollow gesture?!

He seems more scared of a PV than anything else.

It feels right now like the notion that Leave would win a PV is almost the mirror of the expectation that Remain would win the 2016 referendum.

Nothing is anywhere near as clear cut as people are trying to pretend. If they were we wouldn't be here - May would have got her 2017 mega-majority. I think it's helpful to recall from time to time just how 2017 exploded British politics. It's made people very wary of polls, pollsters and polling - even if they have to pay lip service to them.

It's one of the reasons we are here - as news today suggests, not only is there no appetite for a GE, there's the opposite ... a definite antipathy. A GE that effectively returned a no majority parliament again would only serve to ossify the current situation.

No, it's not too late as if agreed by the public the EU would then ratify it once the WAIB goes through.

We'd get an extension for a confirmatory ref.

But it’s too late by then-a totally hollow gesture?!

No, MPs would approve the deal, but it would be conditional, so subject to a confirmatory referendum.

Those Tories still pushing WA HAVE to reject PV. PV necessitates long delay which implies plenty of time for depose TM, GE, start all over again ad infinitum. WA is the only way to save the Tory Party - strong and stable competence anyone?

I think there's a psychological difference between a PV and a confirmatory referendum.

PV = this are the options which do you want.

CR = this is what we're doing, do you object.

I think it’s unlikely there will be another referendum, but if there is, I doubt there will be a remain/revoke option - it’s too devisive for one thing. Maybe WA vs no deal, as Tory manifesto commits to a BREXIT and this is within the parameters of that.

And let’s not forget that relies on EU extension and EU elections...