Westminstenders: For Whom the Bell Tolls

[RedToothBrush]

Although another round of Indicative Votes is scheduled, arguably the chance for a soft Brexit has gone for two reasons.

Parliament was unable to show a majority because those on the opposition benches were too busy saying 'I want this but only on these terms' or still being too unwilling to compromise. Thus the opportunity and point for a third round starts to look weak.

The second is that Tory MPs were resolute in an opposition to a soft Brexit.

Unless May decides to be the next Robert Peel and go for a soft Brexit on the back of opposition vote its not going to happen.

This leaves May's deal as it stands or no deal.

May seems to have actually lost a few supporters of her deal since Friday, and given the performance of the opposition tonight and the prospect of round 3 of indicative votes they will still be unwilling to go for May's deal.

Which leaves no deal.

There is talk of a managed no deal. There is no such thing. The EU plan for that is essentially to push us into the deal in order to get a trading relationship.

And that will push us closer to the us. Which is what many torys want. And what polling seems to suggest they will have surprising support for.

Sorry folks but it don't look great tonight.

The opposition benches may look back on tonight and think they screwed it. I hope I'm wrong. But I fear tonight might have sealed our fate.

Tomorrow may has a 5hr cabinet. And a secret document dmfor the cabinet to study first.

It's going to get bumpy from here on in...

Voting against all those PDs was a bad mistake

PV now may be Remain vs No Deal, to get both Tory & Labour acquiescence

• May can't ignore the 160 Tories who want No Deal - they may even try to bring down the govt

At best - for her - the party would soon force out the remaining moderates to become an entirely hard right party

My track record on politics v DHs track record.

I win hands down over Brexit.

This might be to do with my education. He has a science degree but constantly seems to think he knows more than me on my specialist subject.

What can I say?

Well mother at least he keeps the family cheerful, which is positive
(while you do the actual thinking & prepping)

wouldn't put it past her to make her deal or no deal

It would definitely be No deal or something . Probably her deal.. possibly revoke too.

Party first remember - she lovingly embraces the ERG who have tried both to no confidence/ and then succession plan her out.

Ian Dunt
‏*@IanDunt*
Hearing that reports of indicative votes death are overstated. Expectation is they will take place tomorrow alongside Cooper bill.

Pre-Cabinet reading room just been cancelled and meeting now 3 hours not 5.

WTF is going on now?!?!?

Except it's not, as it's still going now and has been all morning! So back to the 5 hour meeting.

red I've a STEM PhD and I've been worrying about "nature abhors a vaccuum"
and - wrt Govt prepping - "chaos theory"

Greg heffer @ gregheffer
The PM's ex-deputy @DamianGreen tells @SkyNewsPolitics the "one thing" MPs have voted for is replacing the backstop - and he thinks the EU could agree to it "in a quick enough period to leave on the current schedule"

Nick Gutteridge @nick_gutteridge
Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaargh.

This literally is all the government have in the bag.

Beth Rigby@bethrigby
Yvette Cooper says there is too much of a game of brinkmanship going on. Everyone leaving it to the final hours to hope that someone blinks first. A very dangerous game

Yes, I noticed, but I gather it is the scheduled topics running over from 3 hours,

with the 2 hrs specifically for a major party political topic cancelled - possibly that's GE idea dumped

Beth Rigby@bethrigby
.@KayBurley to Cooper; You’ve run out of time haven’t you? “You’re right this is hard, but we haven’t got a choice”

The backstop goes only if Varadkar blinks, or the EU dump Ireland

The first might wreck his party; the second might wreck the EU

Not going to happen

Sos, quite a few Labour MPs did vote for all four motions. Totally agree, re the indicative votes at least, that Labour has shown far more compromise and pragmatism.

I felt quite hopeful about Soubry et al, though, and am gutted that they would only vote for revoke or referendum again. It doesn't even make sense, as referendum doesn't mean much by itself. Did anyone ever say what they wanted on a referendum? Was it remain v TM's deal or v something else?

I'm still more angry about the Tories who wouldn't vote for anything positive yet again, including my own MP. TBF to him he has voted for TM's deal each time and presumably would again, but seems quite pro no deal now. He voted for Baron first time round. My 16 year old son wrote him an angry (though polite) email last night. He and his twin are furious that they never had a say in any of this. They're meant to be revising for GCSEs and it's a major distraction, to put it mildly.

I haven't caught up on the thread, just marking my place.
I was hopeful about the indicative votes yesterday and disappointed when they came to nothing.
Still, progress is being made.... slowly. I do feel that the process is more constructive than it was a month ago.

I bet a GE has been discussed even if its allotted time was removed from the agenda. Hence the meeting running over! Never shorten a meeting when there's loads to discuss; it's counterproductive!

"Weimar collapse?" Too stressed to google!

imo Tiggers - being Remain Ultras - want only Remain vs No Deal in the PV

They deliberately killed off softer Brexit options in the hope of scaring the moderates on both sides into voting only Remain

colouring long story short, the Weimar collapse ultimately had a total body count rivalling the population of the UK.

TIG will vote for a deal if they have a PV attached. They aren't killing off a softer Brexit, they just want a PV attached to whatever is decided.

Tom Newton Dunn@tnewtondunn

So this is Letwin/Cooper's plan to enforce new A50 extension.

Parliament commandeered for rest of week:

Weds - Letwin's paving motion to seize Commons time on Thurs
Thurs - Cooper bill; 2nd/Committee/Report/3rd stages, to pass Commons by close of business, and onto Lords

Fancy that. Bercow says he will allow all 4 stages of the Cooper bill in one day, if the house votes for it tomorrow, decreeing it “not disorderly”.

Leaves PM with having to attempt a modified Meaningful Vote on Friday or Monday.

The new binary wedge for ERG will be:
A50 long delay/European Parliament elections v May's deal.

Discussing a WA vote with a confirmatory referendum is positive news surely? That could pick up some labour and Tig votes.

Loving the PR spin. It's not another bloody referendum or a people's vote like those remoaners wanted it's a confirmatory referendum which is completely different.

I always remember a photo from the Weimar chapter of my school history books of an old man pushing a wheelbarrow full of (worthless) bank notes, to use a fuel or something.

Ian Dunt says Cooper bill AND indicative votes on Thursday?

The PM's ex-deputy @DamianGreen**

..he's only ex due to the porn. He's married to her bestie from her Uni days - they were best 'couple friends' at Uni. Damian Green was at Chequers the other weekend too so I think so probably one of the closest sources. What do they not get about the EU supporting Ireland's stance.