Westminstenders: For Whom the Bell Tolls

[RedToothBrush]

Although another round of Indicative Votes is scheduled, arguably the chance for a soft Brexit has gone for two reasons.

Parliament was unable to show a majority because those on the opposition benches were too busy saying 'I want this but only on these terms' or still being too unwilling to compromise. Thus the opportunity and point for a third round starts to look weak.

The second is that Tory MPs were resolute in an opposition to a soft Brexit.

Unless May decides to be the next Robert Peel and go for a soft Brexit on the back of opposition vote its not going to happen.

This leaves May's deal as it stands or no deal.

May seems to have actually lost a few supporters of her deal since Friday, and given the performance of the opposition tonight and the prospect of round 3 of indicative votes they will still be unwilling to go for May's deal.

Which leaves no deal.

There is talk of a managed no deal. There is no such thing. The EU plan for that is essentially to push us into the deal in order to get a trading relationship.

And that will push us closer to the us. Which is what many torys want. And what polling seems to suggest they will have surprising support for.

Sorry folks but it don't look great tonight.

The opposition benches may look back on tonight and think they screwed it. I hope I'm wrong. But I fear tonight might have sealed our fate.

Tomorrow may has a 5hr cabinet. And a secret document dmfor the cabinet to study first.

It's going to get bumpy from here on in...

The EU might refuse an extension for a referendum without remain on the ballot, because a choice between WA and No Deal would benefit absolutely no one.

2) Large proportion of Brexiters reject it as an actual Brexit and would abstain from a vote.

If leave voters choose to stay at home that is their look out. They can't claim democracy didn't happen just because they decided of their own volition not to take part. Brexiteers not taking part is really not a problem for remainers.

PV = this are the options which do you want.
CR = this is what we're doing, do you object.

Yes, agreed.

I’m a remainer, but we can’t forget that the UK voted to leave twice already- once in the referendum and again by electing the Tories with a manifesto pledge (I’m still very sore about the lack of options for remainers in that one, but nevertheless)

I think it’s unlikely there will be another referendum, but if there is, I doubt there will be a remain/revoke option - it’s too devisive for one thing.

If Remain is the default option, it doesn't need to be on the ballot. Instead, whatever is needs to win by a supermajority and be accepted by the 4 nations of the UK. If that can't be achieved, we ain't leaving,.

I mentioned on another thread that semantically the 2016 referendum was flawed ... after all the opposite of Leave is not Remain. It's join. The actual question made no sense to start with. If it was flagged up at the time, I have no memory. But it's not a great reflection on the grammar pedants that trawl obscure internet forums to slather over they're/their/there that they didn't pick that up .......

The UK didn’t elect the tories though. They didn’t get a majority and they’re holding onto their ever-slimming artificial majority by the skin of their teeth. And did the Tory manifesto say anything about No Deal?

^once in the referendum and again by electing the Tories with a manifesto pledge6

The tories were not elected. They lost their majority. Their manifesto is therefore not worth the paper it is written on.

Previously posted that MiL in Germany was v. ill. In fact, she passed away on Sunday before we could even arrange to get there.

And the funeral is now set for .... 12th April. Car insurer says we'll need a Green Card and wanted an extra £69 just for the one trip. I thought a GC was free (or just admin fee) and it seems the extra charge is to upgrade the insurance to match what we have here (instead of just 3rd party). If anyone knows, do let me know too.

Also, our EHIC cards will presumably no longer be valid, so will need private health insurance (we both have quite serious health issues, so that won't be cheap either).

That's before we even think about physical bottlenecks around the Channel.

So it looks like we leave here still in the EU and come back out of it.

My contempt for posturing politicians is boundless. How dare they so arrogantly play with the lives of those they're supposed to protect.

I’m a remainer, but we can’t forget that the UK voted to leave twice already- once in the referendum and again by electing the Tories with a manifesto pledge

Except they didn't. They lost a majority and have been forced into a minority position. At which point fuck them and their manifesto. Also, how come the "manifesto" is sacred script when it comes to delivering Brexit, but yesterdays chip wrappers when it comes to it's pledge to remain in the SM ?

I wouldn't take advice from Yanis Varoufakis

He wasn’t offering advice, merely stating the obvious.

Ironically, the major flaws of the WA are not the EU’s fault. May is entirely to blame for her red lines and her triggering of art50 without consultation or consensus on the terms. The EU has offered far better terms than the WA - Remain or soft Brexit - Parl is just too stupid to take it.

Icantreach that is the sort of high handed deluded thinking which has been misdirecting Remain along - Remain or else, WA or else, the EU dictates or else, vote Remain vs Remain or else.

If it were that easy to impose Remain the Tories would have done it long ago. Leaving the EU is the raison d'etre of the ERG but not the rest of the PCP. Similarly if Labour thought they could back Remain and Win they would.

For pp asking about Weimar:

It was the total collapse of the German economy, currency, hyperinflation, life savings gone .... that gave the opening for the Nazis to come to power

Desperate people who were formerly comfortable, but then lose all that,
are very vulnerable to the siren call of the populist far right / left scapegoating certain groups for all the problems
and promising easy fixes

Why would No Deal be such a bad thing? we voted to leave, clean slate and all that.

The UK didn’t elect the tories though.
They undoubtedly voted for parties committed to BRIXIT though, as Labour also said they would.

And did the Tory manifesto say anything about No Deal
I believe it said no deal is better than a bad deal - do confirmatory vote on No Deal vs WA still seems within those parameters.

DH says that every time he, as a Remainer, posts anything on the ITN News Facebook, it is deleted within about 10 minutes. Leave comments are allowed to stay.

If people like some light relief, they could do worse than watch "Private Shulz" (beg, borrow, or steal). A 1980s BBC production worth it for Ian Richardson alone. It's a very loose romp over Operation Bernhard, and makes a few references to the Weimar regime and it's part in the Nazi rise.

Even after the war, it's the reason why Germany is so rigid about inflation (or so I was taught in the 1980s) - even in 2019.

I'm still convinced we will end up in No Deal Deliberate or accidental , makes no difference to the consequences which will be catastrophic dire

I just don't see Parliament getting its act together enough to put in place the necessary legislation for EP elections by the 10th (or even the 12th) Even if a large cohort finally see enough sense (and stop the gamesmanship ), there are still too many headbangers in the HoC and I don't see May successfully whipping her own party even if she has a volte face

DH says that every time he, as a Remainer, posts anything on the ITN News Facebook, it is deleted within about 10 minutes. Leave comments are allowed to stay.

Needs to be more subtle ... there's an art to trolling

morello, by that token remain has won way more times than leave - every government for the past few decades has had manifestos which implied or stated that we were staying in the EU.

Except it doesn't prove anything - because GE are about way more than one issue at a time.

The UK didn’t elect the tories though.
They undoubtedly voted for parties committed to BRIXIT though, as Labour also said they would.

People voted for the two main parties in a FPTP election. Hardly a surprise!

(I voted labour in a labour/Tory marginal to oust our odious Brexiteer Tory MP. It worked. I now have a pro-remain labour MP. This was not me endorsing Brexit).

The WA might allow Brexit by 22 May, if the PD can be disposed of v quickly

However, we'd still need to legislate by about 10 April for EP elections,
because the EU won't risk the UK reneging again

So, even the WA would cause furious Tory rebellions & in-fighting

A PV - or GE - would also require EP elections not just to be llegislated form but actually to be held on 23 -26 May

So the first thing we should have is a quick bill - iirc a 90-minute SI would do - to order the EP elections held, if we are still in the EU on 23 May

If the HoC don't do this by about 10 April, then all these indicative votes and schemes are a total waste of time

I'm still convinced we will end up in No Deal

As have I since February and Tusks statement.

Sorry to hear that Hasenstein.

My parents, who are normally very sensible, have booked a visit to Germany + Austria on 29 April. I told them not to book yet in case of No Deal, but my mother, who spoke German before she spoke English and lived some time in Vienna, was absolutely determined to go.

howabout I have no idea what the fuck you're talking about. I've said - remain vs whatever ... not remainers fault if leavers don't turn out. And then yes - remain is that easy - will of the people innit.

Unless you're suggesting that leavers will turn violent if they don't like the options? To which I ask - will you? if not don't presume to speak to others. And if yes - you can be arrested along with the rest of them.
But nobody's going to be frightened off doing something because leavers might not turn up to vote.

@Hasenstein my condolences on your loss. It is beyond rubbish that you have to deal with all the uncertainty in such a distressing time.

Hasenstein (and DW) I'm so sorry