Westminstenders: For Whom the Bell Tolls

[RedToothBrush]

Although another round of Indicative Votes is scheduled, arguably the chance for a soft Brexit has gone for two reasons.

Parliament was unable to show a majority because those on the opposition benches were too busy saying 'I want this but only on these terms' or still being too unwilling to compromise. Thus the opportunity and point for a third round starts to look weak.

The second is that Tory MPs were resolute in an opposition to a soft Brexit.

Unless May decides to be the next Robert Peel and go for a soft Brexit on the back of opposition vote its not going to happen.

This leaves May's deal as it stands or no deal.

May seems to have actually lost a few supporters of her deal since Friday, and given the performance of the opposition tonight and the prospect of round 3 of indicative votes they will still be unwilling to go for May's deal.

Which leaves no deal.

There is talk of a managed no deal. There is no such thing. The EU plan for that is essentially to push us into the deal in order to get a trading relationship.

And that will push us closer to the us. Which is what many torys want. And what polling seems to suggest they will have surprising support for.

Sorry folks but it don't look great tonight.

The opposition benches may look back on tonight and think they screwed it. I hope I'm wrong. But I fear tonight might have sealed our fate.

Tomorrow may has a 5hr cabinet. And a secret document dmfor the cabinet to study first.

It's going to get bumpy from here on in...

I don’t blame them for taking phones away. They are all tweet happy.

Sebastian Payne @SebastianePayne
Brexit latest:

In a meeting before political cabinet, No.10 officials briefed senior ministers that a long extension to Brexit would be the most likely outcome if the withdrawal agreement doesn’t pass Commons on a fourth attempt.

There was no date mentioned in this pre-political cabinet meeting, although ministers think the end of the year is most likely. During the briefing there was no explicit suggestion May would remain prime minister during this period.

I understand that May will tell political cabinet if it is a choice between revocation of Article 50 and pursuing a no-deal Brexit, she would opt for no-deal.

Political cabinet is discussing how to try and get the Brexit deal through the Commons. One option to be discussed is whether it could get through with Labour votes if a confirmatory referendum was tacked on. Surprisingly little hope of getting of the DUP back on board.

A general election is on the agenda but the Tory party’s precarious state has made it difficult to contemplate. Hearing party chief executive Sir Mick Davis might address ministers about this, as per my FT story last week.
t.co/U1RGXDBMBI

Revocation off the table.

What day does TM go to see the queen? Here's hoping her Majesty puts the fear of god in her makes her see some sense.

Yioui

One option to be discussed is whether it could get through with Labour votes if a confirmatory referendum was tacked on.

This would be my preferred option, but it probably a unicorn because it would require the EU to agree to a significant extension AND we'd have to hold EP elections.

We are heading for no deal, as I've been sure of for the past 8 months

Same here, really. DH and I were discussing last night why we were feeling so gloomy after the latest IV fuck-up. Materially, nothing has changed for us - we decided, last summer, that the ultimate intention was for No Deal, and started our stockpiling back then. So if we're still heading for No Deal, then nothing has changed.

But I think it was the little glimmers of hope that sanity would prevail and at least some grown-up would negotiate a sensible solution. All to no avail. That is probably why we're feeling so down.

Jo Maughan QC @jolyonmaugham
I think TIG MPs did a principled thing, rare in this Parliament, when they each resigned the whip. But abstaining en bloc on all substantive outcomes yesterday simply makes good the criticism that all they have in common is disaffection.

@red That's been the view whispered quietly in German political circles for several weeks and is now being talked about in my social circle:

The Uk is a failed state in waiting

That's another reason they expect the UK to be hit so much more badly:

not just being an economy of $2.8 trillion GDP, compared to the E27 $18 trillion,
not just losing almost all its trade deals with RoW while the EU just loses the UK deal,
not just losing all its access to EU agencies, certifications ....

but also that the UK govt & institutions are incapable of prepping adequately, or carrying out what plans they made

Genuine fear of the Weimar collapse revisited,
which is why Merkel has been the UK's staunchest defender, despite UK insults
... but she too now seems resigned to the inevitable

I understand that May will tell political cabinet if it is a choice between revocation of Article 50 and pursuing a no-deal Brexit, she would opt for no-deal.

I hope her prison sentence is very lengthy.

One option to be discussed is whether it could get through with Labour votes if a confirmatory referendum was tacked on.

I'll take it but ... this was suggested months ago (fucking hell I was saying she should do this before chequers!)

DH STILL doesn't think we will no deal.

Contracts for house look likely to be ready this week.

Then it's down to when our buyer wants to move. And how quickly we can go.

I think if we had had a PV it would have shown reflection has taken place, for some leavers at least.

If we did (and that's a huge if) maybe you're right.
Farage though has campaign funding and would repeat his banging of the empire hubristic drum very effectively.

I have no doubt it would get through with a PV tacked on (which would also meet the substantial change criteria for EM). If they're so fucking confident that it's 'the will of the people' to still leave, then what's the problem (other than the EP elections)?

Totted up the sums and realised too little in the Tory kitty for a GE ?

Tom Newton Dunn@tnewtondunn

Appears PM has pulled back from the cliff edge and shelved her big move, whatever it was.^^

Pre-Cabinet reading room just been cancelled and meeting now 3 hours not 5.

Political Cabinet from 09:30-11:30, then normal cabinet.

The bookies still seem to think that No Deal is less likely than not. I have put a tenner on No Deal happening. I wouldn't mind losing the bet.

I swear I do not know whether to laugh or cry.

I am seeing weimar collapse and homelessness in my future but also feel utterly powerless to do anything else.

But if the choice is May's disastrous deal or remain (fingers crossed - thoug I wouldn't put it past her to make her deal or no deal ) then what drum can Farage beat? He's said out loud and in public how awful her deal is. If he tries to pivot he'll be followed around by a led by donkeys ad van blasting his own words back at him for the entire campaign.

Late PMK

Ta Red

I hope all these blase DH's are correct and that No Deal doesn't happen

Looks over 90% chance to me

Elements us too.

Currently switching between binge watching Battlestar Galactica and trying to tell myself at least we haven't been nuked yet...and re-reading Daphne Du Maurier 's Rule Britannica in case it's the shape of things to come.

I'm just so angry. I'm starting to think that Scottish Independence is the only way forward because I want no part of the sort of country the leavers seem to envisage. Plus I'm growing rather fond of Ian Blackford and I think there is more chance of rebuilding something worthwhile, a country to be proud out of Scotland than the United Kingdom right now.

There were a few worried mums at a toddler group this morning but most people just don't seem to care. Dh won't let me talk about Brexit at the minute, he's fine with the prepping aspect and is fairly confident that we will be okay short term and he's probably right, got a lot of farming friends so eggs, milk etc shouldn't be a problem and we live in a fishing village plus the village has a spring with clean water coming from underground but I can't understand why everyone else isn't so angry.

Rule Britannia even. Apparently anger affects my spelling too.

Robert Peston@peston
So @oletwinofficial and @YvetteCooperMP have - at last some would say - organised a genuine moment of Brexit truth, with a bill they are laying, the European Union (Withdrawal) (No.5) Bill, that would compel the PM to sue the EU for another Brexit postponement. It would be...

the definitive castration of this government, if passed by MPs and Lords. But time really tight for it actually to work, because there would be literally no time for the PM to decide on a delay, work out what it's for, and brief @eucopresident so that he can sound out EU...

leaders ahead of the emergency council on 10 April. It is all very well for MPs and Lords to say they want a postponement, but why on earth should EU leaders agree if there is literally no sense of what the UK actually wants?