Westminstenders: For Whom the Bell Tolls

[RedToothBrush]

Although another round of Indicative Votes is scheduled, arguably the chance for a soft Brexit has gone for two reasons.

Parliament was unable to show a majority because those on the opposition benches were too busy saying 'I want this but only on these terms' or still being too unwilling to compromise. Thus the opportunity and point for a third round starts to look weak.

The second is that Tory MPs were resolute in an opposition to a soft Brexit.

Unless May decides to be the next Robert Peel and go for a soft Brexit on the back of opposition vote its not going to happen.

This leaves May's deal as it stands or no deal.

May seems to have actually lost a few supporters of her deal since Friday, and given the performance of the opposition tonight and the prospect of round 3 of indicative votes they will still be unwilling to go for May's deal.

Which leaves no deal.

There is talk of a managed no deal. There is no such thing. The EU plan for that is essentially to push us into the deal in order to get a trading relationship.

And that will push us closer to the us. Which is what many torys want. And what polling seems to suggest they will have surprising support for.

Sorry folks but it don't look great tonight.

The opposition benches may look back on tonight and think they screwed it. I hope I'm wrong. But I fear tonight might have sealed our fate.

Tomorrow may has a 5hr cabinet. And a secret document dmfor the cabinet to study first.

It's going to get bumpy from here on in...

If TM can't get Berkow to allow vote on WA4 ( which he can't unless some drastic change) then there will be no revoke as TM has said no PV it will be no deal. It really will be no deal. No deal. No deal. No deal. No deal. Tick tock, tick tock, tick tock....

JC is trying to compromise between remainers and leavers, we would be in a much better place today if more MPs had done the same.

Just seen the cabinet met for 2 hours. Last night I read they would be meeting for 5 hours. That can't be a good sign surely? Just enough for Maybot to repeat her mantra a few times.

I'm resigned to no deal becoming reality, I've tried to retain hope up to now, but at this point I see no other possibility. Feeling very despondent, sickened with the state of parliament..

As I said yesterday I think society needs No Deal now - slow painful writhing still blaming EU for next 10 years under WA with no money spent on plugging the gaps (as we have been doing for 3 years) compared to chaos but with everyone on high alert and expecting chaos seems better to me. I know it sounds callous to those with med issues, however if it is short chaos and we quickly decide to rejoin/begin to actually spend money on sustainable and sensible ways to resolve the issues that is a far better result than kicking the can. I also stand by what I said yesterday about it possibly being the only way the real crooks in all of this will be held accountable. I completely believe that a washed down version where whoever is in charge in 10 years gets a rolicking for Brexit rather than those standing about willy waving right now will ensure no one who needs to be held accountable is. Which just makes it more likely similar situations will reappear in future. We need to bring back public flogging. Or give them criminal records so that they cannot simply leave the country and start again elsewhere.

Îf we crash out with no Deal, the consequences would indeed be rather like losing a bloodless war:

possible shortages of meds & some foods, economy crashing, almost no trade deals, bsiness & capital fleeing ....

and the looters moving in

I'm off to Cambridge on the 13th as dgd has a masterclass on physiology and neuroscience. I'm looking forward to it. I no longer hold any hope out for remain or a soft brexit so I shall just resign myself quietly to a not very bright future I.e no deal and a raving brexiteer PM. Hopefully my dgd has enough resilience to survive.

lonelytired I fully expect the blame for no Deal will be placed on: the EU, remainers, immigrants, Labour

We've seen for years how 40-50% of the population lap up the hard right lies and don't notice / care about / blame the Tories for e.g. deaths on benefits

Apparently the cabinet meeting is ongoing, so maybe they went back to the original plan of 5 hours?

Sophy Ridge @ sophyridgesky
New cross-party bill being put forward to stop No Deal on April 12th & compel the PM to seek another extension to Article 50. It’s presented by Yvette Cooper & backed by Oliver Letwin who says it’s a “last ditch attempt” to stop no deal exit

It won't work.

Can anyone say no in the languages of all the 27?

There are 2 cabinet meetings back to back. The first for 3 hours then an hour for lunch and then another for 2 hours.
No deal. No deal. No deal. Tick tock tick tock.

Lonely, the problem with that is that the country would end up with the WA anyway, as the EU27 would make it their condition for starting trade talks.
So, backstop etc firmly in place but after several months of shortages, the UK will be in prime negotiating shape.
The tories will have a wonderful excuse to continue austerity and it’ll all still be blamed on the EU.

Thanks.

Barnier did say they had a little patience left and no deal can still be avoided. Hahaha haha haha haha!
I'm feeling vindictive and want to blame someone for all this. Trouble is there is sooooo many!

I can scarcely believe this needs saying once more but seemingly it does, not to informed posters on here but to Cooper and Letwin (who should know better). A new "cross-party" no deal bill has been suggested, not sure if it will go through, or what effect it would have if it did.

Fact remains, the way to stop "No Deal" is to vote for a Deal.

Can other motions be put forward or just this new Cooper/Letwin one ?

Cooper and Letwin can attempt to force May to ask for an extension, but even if that worked (it won’t), for what purpose? She won’t go for a PV.

I like your user name horseshit, very appropriate too.

@horseshit yes but those 2 months or real hardship will be enough to show Leavers what they actually voted for. Once it affects them we all know who's heads they will want on a plate. Even especially English yobs don't like feeling they were tricked.

Very late PMK, will catch up after work.

Thanks to all for their ongoing contributions which are often really enlightening and almost always get me thinking!

{The 3 main requirements - backstop, exit bill, expat rights - are very important to them and the backstsop may be existential}

Having been told there will be no 'minideals' and the fact that a request to ratify citizens rights was presented to the EU last week (?) and rejected, I wonder if there is actually a 'no deal HARD' in the pipeline?
A no deal being basically catastrophic, but I am thinking that to actually present a 'no deal minus' where only citizens rights and a couple of other issues (maybe) are being considered. Persecution and possible expulsion of EU citizens from the UK (yes I know a bit far fetched) would be (hopefully) politically impossible but so many things are currently unthinkable.
The UK government has not visibly negotiated with the EU and it will have to if it wants trade in food for example UNLESS a significant deal has been done with the USA on the basis the UK will cut as many ties as possible.

Thanks, Violet

Just watching on BB2 at the moment, Margaret Beckett really really cross with Teresa May.

One wonders if all this was planned all along by TM which would make her a tactical whizz if it was deliberate, or if its all been a series of unfortunate events (apologies to Lemony Snicket.)

Fact remains, the way to stop "No Deal" is to vote for a Deal.

Or revoke. But I can't see their of those things happening, so I increasingly think it is going to be No Deal.