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Brexit
Original poster

Westminstenders: For Whom the Bell Tolls

980 replies

RedToothBrush · 01/04/2019 22:59

Although another round of Indicative Votes is scheduled, arguably the chance for a soft Brexit has gone for two reasons.

Parliament was unable to show a majority because those on the opposition benches were too busy saying 'I want this but only on these terms' or still being too unwilling to compromise. Thus the opportunity and point for a third round starts to look weak.

The second is that Tory MPs were resolute in an opposition to a soft Brexit.

Unless May decides to be the next Robert Peel and go for a soft Brexit on the back of opposition vote its not going to happen.

This leaves May's deal as it stands or no deal.

May seems to have actually lost a few supporters of her deal since Friday, and given the performance of the opposition tonight and the prospect of round 3 of indicative votes they will still be unwilling to go for May's deal.

Which leaves no deal.

There is talk of a managed no deal. There is no such thing. The EU plan for that is essentially to push us into the deal in order to get a trading relationship.

And that will push us closer to the us. Which is what many torys want. And what polling seems to suggest they will have surprising support for.

Sorry folks but it don't look great tonight.

The opposition benches may look back on tonight and think they screwed it. I hope I'm wrong. But I fear tonight might have sealed our fate.

Tomorrow may has a 5hr cabinet. And a secret document dmfor the cabinet to study first.

It's going to get bumpy from here on in...

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CordeliaEarhart · 02/04/2019 12:05

Sorry, Mother, I read it that the "we" you were referring to is the country as a whole, thus assuming that it was the EU being blamed. My apologies for the misunderstanding.

If you mean that TM/the tory party are holding a gun to the country's head then I totally agree and when I'm feeling paranoid I think that they planned it this way all along.

Original poster
RedToothBrush · 02/04/2019 12:07

www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/evening-standard-comment-past-present-and-future-tories-face-historic-split-killing-eve-returns-soon-a4107101.html?amp&__twitter_impression=true
Evening Standard comment: Past, present and future – Tories face historic split;

I am NOT George.

I started this thread first.

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usuallydormant · 02/04/2019 12:07

Does anyone know what is legally needed to ensure that elections for the European Parliment to go ahead? And if that needs HoC approval, when will this happen and is it likely to pass? Or can May just decree it?

Because this needs to be set up before any extension is granted, right?

Original poster
RedToothBrush · 02/04/2019 12:10

No third round of indicative votes. LDs and tiggers blew it.

Beth Rigby@bethrigby
NEW: Told Letwin et al have no plans for Indicative Votes on Weds. Instead trying to pave way for Cooper bill to be laid on Thurs to legislate against No Deal & mandate govt to put forward proposal. But mood grim. MP tells me Letwin is now “90% sure we’ll drop out with No Deal”

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Sostenueto · 02/04/2019 12:12

Definitely NO second referendum ( PV) under any circumstances.
Speakers off ice saying they have not made their mind up about presenting WA again but LK tweeted whispers that Berkiws ruling still stands.
Sooooo no deal it is I'm afraid.Sad

Original poster
RedToothBrush · 02/04/2019 12:12

Does anyone know what is legally needed to ensure that elections for the European Parliment to go ahead?
A HoC bill authorising it to go ahead.

And if that needs HoC approval, when will this happen and is it likely to pass?
It needs to be before the 12th. And no its doubtful it will pass.

Or can May just decree it?
No

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SisterMichael · 02/04/2019 12:14

PMK

Sostenueto · 02/04/2019 12:14

I knew not to trust the tiggers the gits! LD are just twats and always were! Why people are so gullible sometimes? ( sigh).

OMGithurts · 02/04/2019 12:15

How can they look themselves in the mirror? Sad

usuallydormant · 02/04/2019 12:17

Thanks Red. Not looking good - the chances of May having a plan when she turns up at the EUCO on the 10th were slim but if she asks for an extension without the groundwork for EP elections, the EU has no choice but to say no.

Original poster
RedToothBrush · 02/04/2019 12:18

The LDs and Tiggers overplayed their hand. I would not call it a trust thing. More that they have assumed they had more power of influence than they did.

Some of us have seen the writing on the wall about this for a while.

The LDs in particular have become trapped in an echo chamber. I think it's slightly different for the Tiggers on that score. But they badly misjudged the mood none the less.

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Motheroffourdragons · 02/04/2019 12:18

This reply has been deleted

This has been deleted by MNHQ to protect the privacy of the user.

Original poster
RedToothBrush · 02/04/2019 12:19

It's time for tiggers and LDs to bite the bullet and just vote for the damn deal now.

That's the real test of them tbh.

Their hardcore understand more than most what no deal means....

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NoWordForFluffy · 02/04/2019 12:20

May is determined to neither revoke or have a confirmatory referendum. She's been told she can't bring the WA again, unless it's substantially amended. So I wonder what they'll come up with today which allows them to bring it back?

LonelyTiredandLow · 02/04/2019 12:20

Any news on the Cabinet showdown this am?

NoWordForFluffy · 02/04/2019 12:22

Nothing on the news yet other than no to second referendum.

Oh, just said they're discussing ramping up no deal prep. Joy.

hobblingawayslowly · 02/04/2019 12:22

No chance of any more indicative votes then?

Original poster
RedToothBrush · 02/04/2019 12:23

My suspicion though is that they will go for an all or nothing no deal v revoke vote.

Which won't ever happen.

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Holidayshopping · 02/04/2019 12:23

I can’t bear the thought that TM’s crappy deal is probably going to get through now, despite how absolutely shockingly shite she has been.

I mean...lying, kicking the can down the road, stropping, threatening to leave, having countless Brexit and other MPs leave and generally behaving in a morally reprehensible way.

If it gets through despite being terrible- just because No Deal is even worse-what the hell happens to us now??

BigChocFrenzy · 02/04/2019 12:24

I wouldn't take advice from Yanis Varoufakis:

but it looks like we're going to make a bad deal even worse, just like his govt did:

The Greek govt refused the EU / Troika's terms ... and then ended up being forced by economic reality to accept worse terms

That's what the UK faces with No Deal:

Being forced to accept the WA some months after No Deal has crashed the economy,
so we lose the benefits of 20 momths - maybe years - of transition^

So very like the Greek govt of managing to get an even worse deal.

Sostenueto · 02/04/2019 12:24

They ( tigs) are 11 people who defected from their own parties. Why the fuck would they think they are of any importance
or consequence compared to the main parties? Yes their votes could have influenced something getting through but they are remainers and did not think of anything else other than remain. People have knocked labour but they are trying to come to some sort of compromise and yes they should have voted for all four options but at least they tried in a way to appease both leavers and remainers in their party.

Jux · 02/04/2019 12:25

What happened to "No deal is better than a bad deal" ? Was that a figment of my imagination? I don't believe it's me misremembering (ie "a bad deal is better than no deal").

hobblingawayslowly · 02/04/2019 12:26

JC is too heavily invested in pandering to leavers.

ElenadeClermont · 02/04/2019 12:27

Red Osborne is clearly a fan of yours. (I mean it as a compliment in this case.)

BigChocFrenzy · 02/04/2019 12:28

Do those advocating No Deal think the EU is bluffing -?

I mean about insisting on no negotiations after No Deal until the UK agrees the WA

The 3 main requirements - backstop, exit bill, expat rights - are very important to them and the backstsop may be existential

Do you really think they'll blink ?
They haven't so far

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