Yep he's an April Fool. No really he is!
Today (1st April - I'm starting the thread slightly early) is the return of Indicative Votes.
This follows the defeat of May's Deal by 286 to 344 on Friday.
The Sunday Press has been full of talk of a Cabinet Collapse with 10 Cabinet Brexiteers threatening to walk, with the support of 170 Tory MPs, if May goes for a softer Brexit or fails to leave the EU by 22nd May regardless of whether this is with a Deal or with No Deal and Remain Cabinet Members threatening to walk if May goes for No Deal.
This is in addition to May's apparent threat that the House was at its limits for the process which has been taken as meaning she is considering a GE. Which both Tory Brexiteers and Tory Remainers say they will block. The threat of a GE has largely been seen as a threat to force MPs to back her deal.
May now faces the choice she has always resisted, which on the face of it, looks like it could cause a split in the Tory Party. She will obviously do everything she can to avoid making that choice. Her solution seems to be MV4 with the Snell / Nandy Amendment, which gives parliament a say in the next phase of Brexit. This theorectically is about the Political Declaration (PD) which the Indicative Votes essentially is about.
However it needs to be stressed repeatedly that the EU have said, that they do not care about the PD and all soft Brexits (variations on May's current PD) also require the WA to pass, such is the EU's distrust in the UK. This would include the Common Market 2.0 suggestion (Boles Amendment 189-283), despite what various MPs have suggested simply because it could be used as a temporary transition by the backdoor and CM2.0 doesn't cover certain aspects of withdrawal such as the divorce settlement, long term citizens rights and fishing rights amongst others. And this is going to be a big issue when it comes to the DUP who are now leaning to a soft Brexit or even revocation.
In light of this apparent Government Nervous Breakdown John Major has raised the prospect of a temporary government of National Unity, which is difficult to envisage how that would work given the current parliamentary polarisation. Indeed Labour have ruled this possibility out.
There has also been comments made that any policy passed by Parliament stemming from Indicative Votes could be ignored by May by her using her status of PM to ask the Queen to refuse to give it Royal Ascent. Which surely would go down a storm with her Majesty to be asked to be embroiled into this political pantomine.
Voting on the Indicative Votes is due to start at 8pm - 8.30pm tomorrow with a debate before it.
The Options on the table (but yet to be selected by the Speaker) are:
A) Baron, unilateral backstop exit.
B) Baron, if no WA by then, no-deal Brexit on 12/4. 160-400
C) Clarke, permanent UK-wide customs union. 265-271
D) Boles, Common Market 2.0 (EEA+CU).
Broadly similar to motion from last week, with some changes. 189-283
^E) Kyle / Beckett, WA + PD approval subject to confirmatory PV. 268-295
F) Jones/Grieve, PV if necessary to prevent no deal. Not previously tabled.
G) Cherry, A50 revocation as default if necessary to prevent no deal.
More detailed version of last weeks motion. 184-293
H) Eustice, EFTA+EEA.
Slightly modified version from last week. 64-377
Clark and Boles amendments are the ones to watch. They have apparently gathered more support since last week. Boles CM2.0 appears to have Labour swinging support behind it, unofficially atm.
May is also under pressure to allow the Cabinet Free Votes this time on the CU vote (they abstained last week). Whether this will happen is still anyone's guess.
There is also talk of an alternative 'Custom's Partnership' idea - a fudge that would see the UK stay in parts of a customs union. This idea has been previously rejected by the EU and the Cabinet. But we know how much May loves her fudges.
Robert Peston is saying tonight that whether May and the Government fall may rest on how much support the Customs Union and her allies are desparate for it to get a parliamentary majority - particularly with support from more Conservatives (it only got 35 Tory Votes last time). This would mark a breakthrough and the first positive majority for Brexit.
If it passes, the suggestion is that MV4 will be Tuesday. Of course it remains to be seen if ERG hardliners who switched last week would continue to support her deal if she goes for a CU option and whether getting a parliamentary majority for a CU plus the Snell Amendment would be sufficient to persuade enough Labour MPs, the DUP and perhaps Tory Remainers to push it over the line.
However May going for the CU could provoke a Cabinet resignations or even splits in the party meaning that MV4 on Tuesday is somehow impossible or at least delayed.
Expect May to keep her cards to her chest about whether she will go for a CU as long as possible as a result. (Possibly NOT before a MV4).
Meanwhile it looks like there might be a storm brewing about the stripping of NI born Irish citizens of their EU citizenship, which seems to be in breech of the GFA.
And the Tory Leadership contest is in full swing. Hunt and Javid have been labelled as The TiTs (Theresa in Trousers), Johnson is styling himself as a One Nation Tory (although he is not a member of the One Nation Group within the party) who will bring sweeping tax cuts, and Grayling is saying the next leader must be a Cabinet Minister with experience and has always been a Brexiteer.
And Finally, David Allen Green raises a concern about a potential new exit day, if it changes from 12 April.
David Allen Green @ Davidallengreen
If a new exit day is not agreed until 10/11 April (ie European Council), there will be not enough time for exit day in domestic legislation to be amended in time before 12 April. It was close this time, with the shift from 29 March.