Westministenders: Happy Birthday Chris Grayling!

[RedToothBrush]

Yep he's an April Fool. No really he is!

Today (1st April - I'm starting the thread slightly early) is the return of Indicative Votes.

This follows the defeat of May's Deal by 286 to 344 on Friday.

The Sunday Press has been full of talk of a Cabinet Collapse with 10 Cabinet Brexiteers threatening to walk, with the support of 170 Tory MPs, if May goes for a softer Brexit or fails to leave the EU by 22nd May regardless of whether this is with a Deal or with No Deal and Remain Cabinet Members threatening to walk if May goes for No Deal.

This is in addition to May's apparent threat that the House was at its limits for the process which has been taken as meaning she is considering a GE. Which both Tory Brexiteers and Tory Remainers say they will block. The threat of a GE has largely been seen as a threat to force MPs to back her deal.

May now faces the choice she has always resisted, which on the face of it, looks like it could cause a split in the Tory Party. She will obviously do everything she can to avoid making that choice. Her solution seems to be MV4 with the Snell / Nandy Amendment, which gives parliament a say in the next phase of Brexit. This theorectically is about the Political Declaration (PD) which the Indicative Votes essentially is about.

However it needs to be stressed repeatedly that the EU have said, that they do not care about the PD and all soft Brexits (variations on May's current PD) also require the WA to pass, such is the EU's distrust in the UK. This would include the Common Market 2.0 suggestion (Boles Amendment 189-283), despite what various MPs have suggested simply because it could be used as a temporary transition by the backdoor and CM2.0 doesn't cover certain aspects of withdrawal such as the divorce settlement, long term citizens rights and fishing rights amongst others. And this is going to be a big issue when it comes to the DUP who are now leaning to a soft Brexit or even revocation.

In light of this apparent Government Nervous Breakdown John Major has raised the prospect of a temporary government of National Unity, which is difficult to envisage how that would work given the current parliamentary polarisation. Indeed Labour have ruled this possibility out.

There has also been comments made that any policy passed by Parliament stemming from Indicative Votes could be ignored by May by her using her status of PM to ask the Queen to refuse to give it Royal Ascent. Which surely would go down a storm with her Majesty to be asked to be embroiled into this political pantomine.

Voting on the Indicative Votes is due to start at 8pm - 8.30pm tomorrow with a debate before it.

The Options on the table (but yet to be selected by the Speaker) are:
A) Baron, unilateral backstop exit.

B) Baron, if no WA by then, no-deal Brexit on 12/4. 160-400

C) Clarke, permanent UK-wide customs union. 265-271

D) Boles, Common Market 2.0 (EEA+CU).
Broadly similar to motion from last week, with some changes. 189-283

^E) Kyle / Beckett, WA + PD approval subject to confirmatory PV. 268-295

F) Jones/Grieve, PV if necessary to prevent no deal. Not previously tabled.

G) Cherry, A50 revocation as default if necessary to prevent no deal.
More detailed version of last weeks motion. 184-293

H) Eustice, EFTA+EEA.
Slightly modified version from last week. 64-377

Clark and Boles amendments are the ones to watch. They have apparently gathered more support since last week. Boles CM2.0 appears to have Labour swinging support behind it, unofficially atm.

May is also under pressure to allow the Cabinet Free Votes this time on the CU vote (they abstained last week). Whether this will happen is still anyone's guess.

There is also talk of an alternative 'Custom's Partnership' idea - a fudge that would see the UK stay in parts of a customs union. This idea has been previously rejected by the EU and the Cabinet. But we know how much May loves her fudges.

Robert Peston is saying tonight that whether May and the Government fall may rest on how much support the Customs Union and her allies are desparate for it to get a parliamentary majority - particularly with support from more Conservatives (it only got 35 Tory Votes last time). This would mark a breakthrough and the first positive majority for Brexit.

If it passes, the suggestion is that MV4 will be Tuesday. Of course it remains to be seen if ERG hardliners who switched last week would continue to support her deal if she goes for a CU option and whether getting a parliamentary majority for a CU plus the Snell Amendment would be sufficient to persuade enough Labour MPs, the DUP and perhaps Tory Remainers to push it over the line.

However May going for the CU could provoke a Cabinet resignations or even splits in the party meaning that MV4 on Tuesday is somehow impossible or at least delayed.

Expect May to keep her cards to her chest about whether she will go for a CU as long as possible as a result. (Possibly NOT before a MV4).

Meanwhile it looks like there might be a storm brewing about the stripping of NI born Irish citizens of their EU citizenship, which seems to be in breech of the GFA.

And the Tory Leadership contest is in full swing. Hunt and Javid have been labelled as The TiTs (Theresa in Trousers), Johnson is styling himself as a One Nation Tory (although he is not a member of the One Nation Group within the party) who will bring sweeping tax cuts, and Grayling is saying the next leader must be a Cabinet Minister with experience and has always been a Brexiteer.

And Finally, David Allen Green raises a concern about a potential new exit day, if it changes from 12 April.

David Allen Green @ Davidallengreen
If a new exit day is not agreed until 10/11 April (ie European Council), there will be not enough time for exit day in domestic legislation to be amended in time before 12 April. It was close this time, with the shift from 29 March.

I'm self identifying as a gentle Autumn breeze, the sunlight that bounces off fresh snow and the feel of warm tarmac on a hot summers day.

My understanding of the citizenship issue in NI is not that they are stripping them of Irish Citizenship (which they have no right to) but imposing British Citizenship onto people whether they want it or not. The rules for you don't change because you are a dual national, all citizens are subject to the same rules. This is the same for pretty much every country and not a UK up to shenanigans thing (for once).

Why it is such an issue in NI is as the GFA says you can identify your own nationality. British, Irish or both. It has come to a head for the lady in the Twitter thread linked above as she only considers herself Irish only and therefore wants to bring her husband in under EU rules. The Home Office says she is also a British Citizen and therefore subject to stricter rules. She actually started the process in 2015, so this case is not Brexit related as such.

so this case is not Brexit related as such.

But it does give some indication of the UK government's interpretation of the GFA.

The break up of the union is inevitable now.

Kora - yes, you confirmed what I thought. This is the woman who wants to bring in an American husband I believe, and the Home Office is trying to say she can't?

I can't actually see how the British Government can stop people claiming Irish citizenship, if the Irish Government continues to issue passports. What they could do is say that, contrary to current rules, non British passport holders can't vote in elections. This would not go down well. Perhaps they really do want Ireland to reunite, but don't want to get the blame for it?

woman Bob Stewart MP is an ex-colonel who served in NI
iirc, he joked during a discussion of the Troubles that
"he supposed he was a bit of a torturer then"

Not surprisingly he is one of those pushing for "historical immunity" for UK service personnel in all conflicts and peace.keping actions.

Re the Simon Bruni tweet Littlespaces posted above - he got responses along the lines of "aha, so you have a vested interest"! (He's a colleague of mine and I'm in a similar situation...)

DH's uncle shared something from the AfD at the w/e. When DH was complaining to MIL, her response was "Oh, he just doesn't like the EU, same as we don't"... Agh! How can you not see the difference between disliking the EU and actual Nazis??! How can you not see the difference between disliking the EU and being prepared to bugger up my business and your grandchildren's futures...? Etc etc. And breathe.

I can't actually see how the British Government can stop people claiming Irish citizenship, if the Irish Government continues to issue passports.

Just ignore the passport - or pass a law to ignore the passport. Yes, that might attract some form of international sanctions, but it doesn't remove it as a possibility.

Don't underestimate the spitefulness that lurks under the veneer of English manners. The English are nowhere near as nice as they think they are at times. A lot of Brexit is about dragging other people down, rather than a desire to lift the self.

Re the right or not of those in NI for dual Irish/British citizenship, that was one of the threats used during the Indyref: that the rUK Government would uniquely refuse to recognise Scottish/British dual citizenship (The Scottish Government's White Paper "Scotland's Future" had explicitly said that Scotland would permit dual citizenship).

So the spiteful precedent is there

It would be crazy to ignore the passports of all the Irish people living here. There are more than "a handful" and they are so integrated into broad sweeps of mainland UK life it is almost inconceivable that the government would be so stupid as it try and chuck them out.

Paul Brand @paulbranditv
BREAKING: If PM tacks to customs union @SteveBakerHW tells Politics Live backing a no confidence motion 'is on the table' - he could resign whip to vote to bring down Tory govt.

Sam Coates Times @samcoatestimes
So I’m told 26 ministers considering voting for a customs union, assuming free vote outside cabinet

Let’s see 👀

Heather Stewart @guardianheather
NEW - Downing Street sources confirm whipping for tonight - Tory MPs will be instructed to vote against the business motion, setting up indicative votes; given free votes on the Brexit options; but cabinet ministers will (again) be ordered to abstain.

I think this talk of stripping people of Irish Citizenship is getting overblown and could be frightening for some people. At present we do not have any evidence that the UK Gov is planning to strip anyone of their Irish Citizenships or ban dual nationality. The Twitter case is only relevant in terms of shining a light onto the UK Gov opinion on the GFA.

Just ignore the passport - or pass a law to ignore the passport. Yes, that might attract some form of international sanctions, but it doesn't remove it as a possibility.

I don't understand what you mean here? The UK allows dual nationality but (unless for certain high security jobs or stripping terrorists) it means nothing. UK citizens are UK Citizens and in the UK are subject to the same rules. It's exactly the same in Ireland and pretty much every other country in the world. There is nothing extra to ignore as it is ignored already.

My understanding is that under British law (Government of Ireland Act 1949), Irish people are actually considered British and that Ireland is not considered a foreign country. So the British government cannot stop people claiming Irish citizenship but it doesn't consider them really Irish when it comes to appyling British law.

I think the link in Mathanxiety's last post had CTA experts recommend that Irish citizen's apply for settled status to to ensure they don't get caught in a Windrush issue if the CTA starts to disintegrate post Brexit.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Travel_Area
Before 1949, all Irish citizens were considered under British law to be British subjects. After Ireland declared itself a republic in that year, a consequent British law gave Irish citizens a similar status to Commonwealth citizens in the United Kingdom, notwithstanding that they had ceased to be such. Thus, much like British citizens in Ireland, Irish citizens in the United Kingdom have never been treated as foreigners. Irish citizens have, however, like Commonwealth citizens, been subject to immigration control in Britain since the enactment of the Commonwealth Immigrants Act 1962. Unlike Commonwealth citizens, Irish citizens have generally not been subject to entry control in the United Kingdom and, if they move to the UK, are considered to have 'settled status' (a status that goes beyond indefinite leave to remain). They may be subject to deportation from the UK upon the same basis as other European Economic Area nationals. In February 2007 the British government announced that a specially lenient procedure would apply to the deportation of Irish citizens compared to the procedure for other European Economic Area nationals. As a result, Irish nationals are not routinely considered for deportation from the UK when they are released from prison.

Could TM just say “April Fool” and be done with Brexit? 🤞

"MOTION D - Common Market 2.0 (Boles) - Has been reworked, reportedly in an attempt to get buy-in from the DUP. Paragraph 1ii) is key - Joint Instrument which confirms CM2 would supersede backstop"

@red - has CM2.0 been checked with the EU, especially wrt backstop ?

Also wrt the UK "having a say" in future trade deals; that at least looks negotiable - but do we really have time to do so, if the EP elections SI doesn't pass ?

What about those Irish citizens who were born in NI and have never lived anywhere else?

he got responses along the lines of "aha, so you have a vested interest"! (He's a colleague of mine and I'm in a similar situation...)

What is wrong with people? Can't they see they have a vested interest too, as in some way shape or form we are all benefiting from taxes, whether it is through schools, the NHS, benefits or services.

My sympathy to both of you. I will carry on trying to talk sense into my wider family. One down, four to go.

Kora, so under the GFA people born in NI get to choose whether they are Irish, British or dual nationality. Whereas what the Home Office are saying is, effectively, that they are British or dual nationality. Thereby (already) not abiding by the GFA and giving yet further evidence of the fact that the government can't be trusted why a backstop is needed in the first place.

Or am I missing something? I'm embarrassingly under-educated in this area so it is entirely possible that I've got the wrong end of the stick.

There would be problems of Irish citizenship not being recognised as EU citizenship

It would mean they won't get the "settled rights" that have been brought into law
(but which may also be repealed if we don't get a WA)

Math was worried that elderly Irish citizens could be deported, like an Irish WIndrush

It seems to only affect Irish citizens born in NI, since they will now automatically declared British citizens and their Irish / EU citizenship would be ignored.

• was this a secret deal with the DUP ?

It could mean Irish Nationalists in NI being forced to prove they are British citizens, in order to retain certain rights, such as bringing over a non-British spouse / child / parent.

It looks like the govt smashing a bomb-laden truck through the GFA

MasterBaker gonna MasterBaker.

@paulwaugh
Woah. @SteveBakerHW says him re joining Corbyn in confidence vote: "these things are on the table"

Baker says "as a Conservative MP.." he cant support customs union. Hint that will resign whip to vote no confidence in gov

@GuardianHeather
NEW - Downing Street sources confirm whipping for tonight - Tory MPs will be instructed to vote against the business motion, setting up indicative votes; given free votes on the Brexit options; but cabinet ministers will (again) be ordered to abstain.

Yuk, that's horrendous BCF about that tory. not envy.

BCF there are a few things about CM2.0 that are being flagged as unicorns and unrealistic. So I doubt it could be adopted by 12th April. Too many issues with it.

Rather than making an attempt to sort out the Brexit swamp with a plan to get out of it there are people from various sides throwing more crocodiles in.

Looks like the UK govt is imposing British ciizenship on those born in NI; even on Irish Nationalists who choose to take Irish citizenship

in order to remove additional EU rights that British only citizens won't have, i.e. levelling down

Really looks like it is to please the DUP, so that neighbours with Irish citizenship won't have any advantages - within the UK - over those who don't

That would make NI Irish Nationalists hate their imposed British citizenship even more