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Brexit

Westministenders: The DisUnited Kingdom of Remaina

953 replies

RedToothBrush · 29/03/2019 19:58

Todays News Round Up (so far):

  1. MV2.5 failed by 58 votes.
  2. Labour Rebels were not tempted by May's promises of consultation with parliament over the next phase. This is because this is not a binding promise and with a possible change of leader this is even more lacking in substance
  3. More ERG than expected switched to supporting the WA. This included leadership hopefuls Johnson and Raab. But there were still 28 hold outs plus 6 Tory Remain Rebels.
  4. Macron said that the EU would be the ones to decide the timetable for no deal if we failed to pass the WA or ask for an extension by 12th April. Thus 12th April is NOT necessarily the cliff edge we fear, though it still is no deal. (Its just a possible time delay). As far as a lengthy extension goes he would want not just EP election participation but also more in the way of a concrete way forward than we currently have though.
  5. The EUCO are meeting on the April 10th. Thus we have until then to work something out. Thats quite the ask.
  6. A series of mini deals in the event of No Deal is something the EU are firmly ruling out. And yet the myth that this will happen is still out there.
  7. No Deal would probably mean the Backstop being in effect anyway in practice, simply because its the only way to stop a hard border.
  8. The penny has dropped with the DUP over this, and they have finally abandoned the idea of a hard brexit and possibly brexit all together if it threatens NI position in the union. They would rather remain. Thus the GFA problem is at least acknowledged.
  9. The DUP did something curious in the indicative votes. They signalled where there was room for them to move, in how they voted - they revealed what they were opposed to and what they might be talked into with their abstaining
  10. There seems to be moves elsewhere to a softer brexit with more signatories to Common Market 2.0 gaining support and more vocal support for the Customs Union.
  11. Donald Tusk signalled that the EU could change the PD to a custom union relatively easily.
  12. May had a meeting earlier with ministers who are urging her to go for No Deal now
  13. May said cryptically after the vote in the commons that the process was almost beyond what the house could provide. What she meant by this isn't obvious.
  14. The problem is that any deal requires the WA to pass... the WA merely is the divorce arrangement and not the economic and political alignment aftewards. All soft Brexits require the WA.

The DUP will never support the backstop.
And Labour although they say they accept the WA will never support a blind Brexit and distrust the Tories fearing they will backtrack on any PD.
The only way to square this circle is to have a legally binding PD which looks a lot like the backstop with NI and the rUK in it.
Which the ERG would never buy into.
And the EU might not allow.

And to get an extension we'd need to pass legislation for EP elections - and its difficult to work out where May would get a majority in the HoC from to facilitate that without the government collasping in the attempt.

Thus as we move forward the stakes get higher, and without any progress on a deal the chances of both No Deal and Revoke get higher. And I don't fancy testing May's resolve to revoke - especially since that might require parliamentary approval too. Is there a majority to revoke if the alternative really is No Deal?

Parliament needs to move FAST to avoid both. Parliament isn't good at moving fast.

I also note that the DUP's political survival might well rest now with remaining. Apparently like the Conservatives, the uncertainity of Brexit has lead to a loss of confidence in the party amongst business leaders, which has led to a drop in donations. This is coupled with May's threat that No Deal would result in Direct Rule. The likes of Arlene are on the Stormont Pay Role, so this would starve them of money there. And this is all without the prospect of polling on an all Ireland referendum. The ERG hanging them out to dry, only serves to make it or the more likely.

Surely an election beckons one way or another, later this year? This is unsustainable for the DUP. And for May who has today, refused to rule one out...

Prediction: We are going to get through a lot of threads and have late nights between the 9th and 12th.

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mathanxiety · 31/03/2019 22:06

This is the kind of line Hitler actually used to cause the German people to get behind him. He told them time and again that it was the fault of the US and the depression and crash of 1929, and the reparations after the war etc etc

Hitler tapped into currents that ran far deeper.

Anger about 'betrayal' and the existence and operations of 'the enemy among us' was the main one. Hence the anti-Semitism that came so quickly to the surface.

There was nothing rational in Hitler's appeal. He appealed to paranoia and built his power on the foundation of the wound that losing a war and being plunged into poverty created. For Hitler it was a case of 'right place/right time'.

The mistake of his rational opponents and of many of those who were ultimately to be destroyed in the Holocaust was to place too much faith in rationality.

Likewise, the man mentioned by LonelyTiredAndLow would have no time at all for any appeal to a rational argument about strong women, or women choosing anything for themselves. That man has a wounded sense of masculinity and his speech is all about himself. Women are actually irrelevant in his world except as reflections of his own position among men in a world where only men count. His words are posturing for other men. He is 'masculinity signalling'.

...a Leaver I know posted several anti-abortion memes coming directly from American evangelists. He also posted something about killing any man who tries to get with his daughter (who is a baby, so I felt this crossed into hatred of paedophiles/played on that emotional pull) as well as showing a deep lack of comprehension that if he teaches his daughter to be a strong independent woman she will be able to make her own decisions and save him a prison sentence. Leavers are primed for this emotional response as we know. We need to highlight these memes where we see them and kindly put forward another perspective (e.g necessity for abortion if mother is likely to die or as above with the teaching women to be educated and independent means they don't need protectionism). I see the two as very linked and it is concerning for our freedoms as women.

His wounded sense of masculinity has found expression in his thoughts about murdering men who might harm his daughter (presumably inspired by recent cases involving paedophiles who are not white British) but in another time and place it could equally have found expression in a murderous hatred of the kind Hitler encouraged - of Jews who stabbed Germany in the back resulting in the loss of the war, Jews who brought German farmers to their knees through their occupation as livestock and grain and seed merchants, Jews who through their control of international finance pulled the strings that caused the German economy to collapse.

Or it could find expression in hatred of Europe in which Germany and France, the apparent vanquished enemy of two world wars and the hapless victim of two world wars who needed to be rescued by Britain, respectively, appeared to have gained a position in which they, through the trickery of the EEC that morphed into the EU somehow, dictated British law and trade policy, with Britain's past military heroics rendered irrelevant. (Not for nothing have recent memes shown the war cemeteries in Flanders and Normandy with "Paid In Full" emblazoned across the images. 'Paid in Full' is a fundamentalist Christian meme associated with an image of Christ on the Cross but in the context of Leave it refers also to the idea of Britain's payments to the EU, and I strongly suspect there is a subconscious association of those payments with German war reparations payments and an associated sense of great injustice to Britain).

There is also the question of Ireland, a topic only committed Unionists really know anything about but about which many people in Britain have vague feelings about. In the context of Brexit, there is anger that Ireland, which in popular belief stabbed Britain in the back in WW1 and was described by Churchill as a back stabber in WW2, and which in living memory was suspected of supporting a terrorist campaign in Britain, seems to be prospering even after the economic collapse of 2008, in total contradiction of generally held assumptions about Ireland and the Irish that were held dear by the British public for centuries (the Irish were dirty, feckless, lazy and very stupid, and inclined to mindless violence) with the sense of outrage compounded by the sight of Ireland seeming to have the ear of Germany and France and treated as an equal.

It's all too much newness for many to cope with.

UKIP's support comes from people who feel betrayed - betrayed primarily by Tories who seemed to have cozied up far too snugly with Germany/France and the EU (i.e. a party that was too quick to embrace the future - in UK politics the nod to the past and use of patriotic buzzwords has to be very clear and interwoven with all plans or aspirations for the future or a large swathe of the electorate gets angry).

See this article (I posted it upthread too) for a better articulation of how the present and the future are too much for many Britons.
www.nytimes.com/2019/03/23/opinion/sunday/britain-brexit.html?action=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article

Apileofballyhoo · 31/03/2019 22:10

Jaysus, math that's bleak.

wheresmymojo · 31/03/2019 22:11

Thanks Math....that's a very articulate and thought provoking post. I agree with it all.

Icantreachthepretzels · 31/03/2019 22:14

Ah, I think I got it! It means that the rights that are available to EU citizens (such as bringing non EU spouses into the country)

But this is what is confusing me. Surely EU citizens will no longer be able to bring in non-EU spouses once we are not an EU country? That's surely an EU law that we would no longer be bound by. Surely any EU citizens living in Britain won't have EU rights here - because we won't be EU? Surely it will now be the same as if they moved to America or Canada or Australia - EU law and rights don't apply as long as they are in those countries although they retain their EU citizenship?

RedToothBrush · 31/03/2019 22:19

Three Stabbed tonight in clashes between Celtic and Rangers fans.

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ElenadeClermont · 31/03/2019 22:21

Wasn't this a big contention? There was talk at one point that EU citizens would be allowed to bring their spouses freely to the UK, but UK citizens will be limited in this?

Random18 · 31/03/2019 22:22

RTB that’s not good news. There is always the potential for trouble there. And it looks to have been quite a tense match.

I would never go into Glasgow after an old firm, especially to the pub

StripeyChina · 31/03/2019 22:23

PMK

Peregrina · 31/03/2019 22:23

This is where we get to the anomalous position of N Ireland. It really is different from the rest of the UK. Those of us in GB can't choose to have one nationality or the other or both*. Nor have we had to endure for the most part a civil war, with the exception of some bombing campaigns in Great Britain. The Good Friday agreement does allow people born in NI to be British, Irish or both, and now we see the UK Government slipping in a rule change by stealth.

I don't do twitter myself, but DD tells me that it's now all over twitter.

  • Not forgetting that there is a brainless Tory MP who thinks that all British citizens are entitled to claim Irish citizenship.
Icantreachthepretzels · 31/03/2019 22:29

Wasn't this a big contention? There was talk at one point that EU citizens would be allowed to bring their spouses freely to the UK, but UK citizens will be limited in this?

This is current law. EU law is that an EU citizen moving to another EU country may bring their family with them - even if that family is non-EU. But they can't interfere with domestic law on non- EU immigration ... so rEU citizens in Britain can bring in non-EU spouses at will - whilst British EU citizens have to go down the visa route for their non-EU spouses.
But - surely once if we're not an EU country, that law would no longer apply to rEU citizens? Why would it?

1tisILeClerc · 31/03/2019 22:33

{now we see the UK Government slipping in a rule change by stealth.}
The fact that the Wherrity sniffer has taken full control of international trade, bypassing the usual government trade department was reported last week. I expect there is far more for the truth seeking 'news hounds' on here to discover.
Has operation yellowhammer actually started, it hasn't been mentioned loudly?

RedToothBrush · 31/03/2019 22:36

Right I'm off to bed and seeing at we are about to hit page 39....

Here's another thread. Eeeekkk!
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3547876-Westministenders-Happy-Birthday-Chris-Grayling?watched=1

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RedToothBrush · 31/03/2019 22:37

No newspapers tonight as I've got most of the points from the front pages in the new thread starter and I'm knackered.

@hendopolis tonight for them if anyone is bothered.

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mathanxiety · 31/03/2019 22:40

...which opposition MPs would be willing to put their own party politics aside and serve in her Unity Cabinet

Millions of voters would be so impressed with MPs with the courage to do this.

The 6m plus have been working cross party for 3 years to do exactly this.

I fear this is too rational a proposal.

While millions of more rational people would like it, millions who are not rational would see it as a betrayal of the identity politics and the past-referencing politics that actually form part of their own personal identity.

In this proposal there is a danger of eliciting an even greater sense of betrayal than there is now among those already inclined to the far right, with the potential to set up UKIP and even further right wing parties and groups as the only legitimate opposition.

Sostenueto · 31/03/2019 22:43

Crikey math great post butShock

RedToothBrush · 31/03/2019 22:46

Labour have already ruled out a national unity government. Probably precisely for that reason...

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BigChocFrenzy · 31/03/2019 23:12

From the FT article:

While the party downplays suggestions of infiltration, some MPs say that many former members of the anti-EU UK Independence party are joining their associations.

“My local party is gearing up for deselection and already parading my replacement,” said one.

mathanxiety · 31/03/2019 23:16

LonelyAndTiredAndLow
All of those think tanks are funded ultimately by the Koch Brothers.

BigChocFrenzy · 31/03/2019 23:18

"I have a few Irish born Uk based relatives. Some of whom are quite old now and have paid UK tax and national insurance all their lives.
I dare the Home Office to try and deport them."

Bellini Please don't dare them. There are no depths to which this govt and this Home Office can't sink.

BigChocFrenzy · 31/03/2019 23:22

It could even be a deliberate punishment for Ireland allying with rEU and thwarting the Brexit unicorn-fantasists:

Take it out on the most vulnerable Irish citizens under British control

mathanxiety · 31/03/2019 23:23

This is important. On March 7th the UKG changed the definition of an EEA citizen to exclude those who are also British.

They have alao stated that "as a matter of law" the people of Northern Ireland are British by birth.

NI born Irish citizens will not be considered EU citizens

This completely contradicts the terms of the GFA relating to citizenship, on two counts.

It's not at all surprising that the government has taken this brass-necked and aggressive approach.

Is the government trying to test out the notion that once Irish citizens in NI are no longer EU citizens under British law they no longer enjoy any of the protection of the ECJ or the ECHR?

I assume a case will be brought in the Supreme Court.

This move is guaranteed to piss off Irish Americans and their representatives. (Not to mention the Irish government).

BigChocFrenzy · 31/03/2019 23:33

I was just thinking that British govt attempts to remove rights from Irish citizens, to create 2 classes of irish citizens,
could have serious consequences in realtions with the USA, not just the EU

Great way to start Year Zero for Britain:
not just losing lmost all trade deals, agencies, certification rights etc, but also pissing off the #1 and #2 global economic powers

mathanxiety · 31/03/2019 23:35

wheresmymojo Sun 31-Mar-19 21:28:36
@ LonelyTiredandLow
Yes, eventually Cummings is linked via the Leave campaign. It's like a big spiders web - links to Aaron Banks, Farage, Cambridge Analytica, Trump.

Also links to many Conservative MPs like Redwood.

The same group were also behind the campaign against electoral reform (to AV) in 2011.

It's all a great big spiders web of funding and influence to keep regulation and taxes on the rich low.

Littlespaces Sun 31-Mar-19 21:31:23
It might backfire on them if a Corbyn Govt gets in

Indeed.

And that is why I am very suspicious of the origin of the anti-Corbyn feeling that I see even here.

I honestly think many otherwise very rational people are being manipulated. There is a tiny part of every Briton, hidden under multiple layers of sensibleness and intellect, that is a Tory. It's the default option, the bit closest to the bone that is wrapped in the flag. I think it's being summoned out and directed against Corbyn.

I have no horse in any British election race. However, I have seen a campaign of vilification in action in the US at the last Presidential election, and the focus and pressure on Corbyn looks remarkably similar.

BigChocFrenzy · 31/03/2019 23:36

I do suspect there is an element of revenge against Ireland for siding with the EU and - as Brexiters see it - helping to humiliate and defeat Britain

BigChocFrenzy · 31/03/2019 23:39

math Those of us who are old enough have detested Corbyn since he became an MP in 1983

We despise the hard left populism in Britain, just as we do in France

  • where the hard left & hard right do seem to ally against the centre, just as they do here

Noticeable how some Lexiters admire far right Tories like Redwood
and some Unionist Lexiters admire the DUP fascists

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