Westministenders: The DisUnited Kingdom of Remaina

[RedToothBrush]

Todays News Round Up (so far):

1. MV2.5 failed by 58 votes.
2. Labour Rebels were not tempted by May's promises of consultation with parliament over the next phase. This is because this is not a binding promise and with a possible change of leader this is even more lacking in substance
3. More ERG than expected switched to supporting the WA. This included leadership hopefuls Johnson and Raab. But there were still 28 hold outs plus 6 Tory Remain Rebels.
4. Macron said that the EU would be the ones to decide the timetable for no deal if we failed to pass the WA or ask for an extension by 12th April. Thus 12th April is NOT necessarily the cliff edge we fear, though it still is no deal. (Its just a possible time delay). As far as a lengthy extension goes he would want not just EP election participation but also more in the way of a concrete way forward than we currently have though.
5. The EUCO are meeting on the April 10th. Thus we have until then to work something out. Thats quite the ask.
6. A series of mini deals in the event of No Deal is something the EU are firmly ruling out. And yet the myth that this will happen is still out there.
7. No Deal would probably mean the Backstop being in effect anyway in practice, simply because its the only way to stop a hard border.
8. The penny has dropped with the DUP over this, and they have finally abandoned the idea of a hard brexit and possibly brexit all together if it threatens NI position in the union. They would rather remain. Thus the GFA problem is at least acknowledged.
9. The DUP did something curious in the indicative votes. They signalled where there was room for them to move, in how they voted - they revealed what they were opposed to and what they might be talked into with their abstaining
10. There seems to be moves elsewhere to a softer brexit with more signatories to Common Market 2.0 gaining support and more vocal support for the Customs Union.
11. Donald Tusk signalled that the EU could change the PD to a custom union relatively easily.
12. May had a meeting earlier with ministers who are urging her to go for No Deal now
13. May said cryptically after the vote in the commons that the process was almost beyond what the house could provide. What she meant by this isn't obvious.
14. The problem is that any deal requires the WA to pass... the WA merely is the divorce arrangement and not the economic and political alignment aftewards. All soft Brexits require the WA.

The DUP will never support the backstop.
And Labour although they say they accept the WA will never support a blind Brexit and distrust the Tories fearing they will backtrack on any PD.
The only way to square this circle is to have a legally binding PD which looks a lot like the backstop with NI and the rUK in it.
Which the ERG would never buy into.
And the EU might not allow.

And to get an extension we'd need to pass legislation for EP elections - and its difficult to work out where May would get a majority in the HoC from to facilitate that without the government collasping in the attempt.

Thus as we move forward the stakes get higher, and without any progress on a deal the chances of both No Deal and Revoke get higher. And I don't fancy testing May's resolve to revoke - especially since that might require parliamentary approval too. Is there a majority to revoke if the alternative really is No Deal?

Parliament needs to move FAST to avoid both. Parliament isn't good at moving fast.

I also note that the DUP's political survival might well rest now with remaining. Apparently like the Conservatives, the uncertainity of Brexit has lead to a loss of confidence in the party amongst business leaders, which has led to a drop in donations. This is coupled with May's threat that No Deal would result in Direct Rule. The likes of Arlene are on the Stormont Pay Role, so this would starve them of money there. And this is all without the prospect of polling on an all Ireland referendum. The ERG hanging them out to dry, only serves to make it or the more likely.

Surely an election beckons one way or another, later this year? This is unsustainable for the DUP. And for May who has today, refused to rule one out...

Prediction: We are going to get through a lot of threads and have late nights between the 9th and 12th.

Posted a little too soon: what happens to those NI citizens who only hold Irish passports? Is the UK Government going to tell them they are not valid?

Windrush

...and all of these are linked to the Tax Payers Alliance.

Adam Smith Institute, Center for Policy Studies, Institue for Economic Affairs and Policy Exchange.

They were set up first by a few free market conservatives decades ago who didn't like the left leaning politics of the post-war era. At the time they were considered 'right wing nutcases' but pushed and pushed their policies until they became mainstream.

Including - selling council houses in the Thatcher period onwards, proactively seeking out stories on misuse of benefits or public sector spending to sell stories about it because they are proponents of small state, etc.

We always said brexit always was about Human Rights.
This from March 6th
Northern Ireland human rights group meets EU task force

UK attorney general and Brexit secretary return to London after ‘difficult’ discussions with EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier

Home Office minister Caroline Nokes told the House of Commons on February 26th that “British citizens, including those with dual British/Irish or British/EU citizenship, are not eligible to apply for the EU settlement scheme. This is because, under Section 1(1) of the Immigration Act 1971, those with a right of abode in the UK (including all British citizens) cannot be granted immigration status

The Northern Ireland group argues that the ruling is in breach of the commitment to allowing equal respect to those claiming Irish citizenship under both the Belfast Agreement and the proposed withdrawal agreement. It would create a distinct class of citizens in the North with less rights than others, and forces those who wish to continue exercising their EU rights after Brexit formally to resign their UK citizenship.

This is a lengthy and costly process, Ms DeSouza says, involving first an assertion and proof of UK citizenship, something that is anathema for many nationalists. Applicants must then pay a charge of over £437, and may not leave the state for six months until their status is changed

The delegation also raised the issue of the right of Northern Ireland-based Irish citizens to vote in the coming European elections, and were told that this was a matter entirely for the Irish Government

www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/northern-ireland-human-rights-group-meets-eu-task-force-1.3816661?mode=amp

A quote from the President of the Adam Smith Institute "President Madsen Pirie has sought to describe the activity of the organisation as "[w]e propose things which people regard as being on the edge of lunacy. The next thing you know, they're on the edge of policy"

DGR you got it in one. Windrush.

wheresmymojo - erm, is Cummings linked to it? This picture looks rather familiar to a recent bus...which I feel sure I remember him having boasted of as his idea?

@MattCartoonist

NI passport GFA breaches are provocation. More of it.

Windrush wasn't part of an international treaty was it? The GFA is, which the Tories do seem to forget. Is anyone in authority, like the Irish Government, lodging a protest?

@LonelyTiredandLow

Yes, eventually Cummings is linked via the Leave campaign. It's like a big spiders web - links to Aaron Banks, Farage, Cambridge Analytica, Trump.

Also links to many Conservative MPs like Redwood.

The same group were also behind the campaign against electoral reform (to AV) in 2011.

It's all a great big spiders web of funding and influence to keep regulation and taxes on the rich low.

It might backfire on them if a Corbyn Govt gets in

I often wondered how having a concentration of at least 900,000 EU citizens (and probably more, as, if you can have both, why not) living in one small part of the UK was going to work out legally. And so the answer is to strip those citizens of their dual citizenship. So they're not really Irish, are they not? How very Tory.

Although it could be a case of somebody who just didn't bother to read the GFA. Another Tory trait.

So there is all the proof needed (not that anyone on this thread needed it) that Brexit is just a rich man's game leading the UK to a place of lower taxes on the rich and de-regulation.

A haven for the Establishment basically.

@Littlespaces

Yep....that would be a hilarious backfire.

Forgive my ignorance here but is the implication here that NI British born citizens would be the only citizens who cannot choose to be dual nationals so would be faced with the choice to give up their EU rights or their UK passport? How can it be if the UK accepts dual nationality from everyone else?

The delegation also raised the issue of the right of Northern Ireland-based Irish citizens to vote in the coming European elections, and were told that this was a matter entirely for the Irish Government

I wrote to several MEPs about this. No replies.

Home Office minister Caroline Nokes told the House of Commons on February 26th that “British citizens, including those with dual British/Irish or British/EU citizenship, are not eligible to apply for the EU settlement scheme. This is because, under Section 1(1) of the Immigration Act 1971, those with a right of abode in the UK (including all British citizens) cannot be granted immigration status

What does this mean? It seems to be saying that people who have British citizenship don’t need to apply for the right to stay in the UK. That would seem self evident. Or does the ‘EU settlement scheme’ mean something else?

The Northern Ireland group argues that the ruling is in breach of the commitment to allowing equal respect to those claiming Irish citizenship under both the Belfast Agreement and the proposed withdrawal agreement. It would create a distinct class of citizens in the North with less rights than others, and forces those who wish to continue exercising their EU rights after Brexit formally to resign their UK citizenship.

I’m sorry, I’m really confused by this. What EU rights is this talking about? Which group has less rights?

Songs - they appear to be saying that NI citizens are British by default whether they hold a passport or not, but could also choose to Naturalise as Irish. This is possible - my DIL is an Irish but also naturalised as British. But the GFA explicitly allows people born in NI to be either British, or Irish or both by right, from what I remember from a reading of it. So I would say that they have already breached the GFA. This is why the backstop is essential.

I understand that Irish born UK residents don't need to apply for settled status because.... that would be weird.
I have a few Irish born Uk based relatives. Some of whom are quite old now and have paid UK tax and national insurance all their lives. I dare the Home Office to try and deport them.

And so the answer is to strip those citizens of their dual citizenship. So they're not really Irish, are they not? How very Tory.
Apileofballyhoo I'm not a lawyer but it smells very breach of ECHRy to me, and so very brexity.

Common travel area applies I suppose - but Irish citizens born in Ireland are being recognised as EU citizens whereas Irish citizens born in N. Ireland are not, which is wrong.

Theresa May is already on record as wanting to scrap the ECHR. Not being a student of history she doesn't appear to realise that much of it was drafted by UK lawyers, for very real reasons, having just then fought a war with Nazi Germany.

They may as well light a fuse and be done with it.

Ah, I think I got it! It means that the rights that are available to EU citizens (such as bringing non EU spouses into the country) will no longer be available to NI citizens. So if you're Northern Irish and hold an Irish passport, you'd have less rights than those in the Republic, thus creating two groups of Irish people- Unless they choose to give up their UK citizenship which is costly.

Sorry...I know I'm not contributing to the NI piece (which I'll re-read in a second as it was confusing me!) but...

How much is stacked against the political system working for the average citizen....and now they've pulled off a brilliant coup that more 'have nots' now vote for them. Do you think they're crass enough to laugh behind closed doors about people stupidly calling them 'men of the people' when they know they're anything but. Or do you think they've convinced themselves that lower taxes for the rich = already proven incorrect trickle down economics?

Do they lie to themselves?