Westministenders: The DisUnited Kingdom of Remaina

[RedToothBrush]

Todays News Round Up (so far):

1. MV2.5 failed by 58 votes.
2. Labour Rebels were not tempted by May's promises of consultation with parliament over the next phase. This is because this is not a binding promise and with a possible change of leader this is even more lacking in substance
3. More ERG than expected switched to supporting the WA. This included leadership hopefuls Johnson and Raab. But there were still 28 hold outs plus 6 Tory Remain Rebels.
4. Macron said that the EU would be the ones to decide the timetable for no deal if we failed to pass the WA or ask for an extension by 12th April. Thus 12th April is NOT necessarily the cliff edge we fear, though it still is no deal. (Its just a possible time delay). As far as a lengthy extension goes he would want not just EP election participation but also more in the way of a concrete way forward than we currently have though.
5. The EUCO are meeting on the April 10th. Thus we have until then to work something out. Thats quite the ask.
6. A series of mini deals in the event of No Deal is something the EU are firmly ruling out. And yet the myth that this will happen is still out there.
7. No Deal would probably mean the Backstop being in effect anyway in practice, simply because its the only way to stop a hard border.
8. The penny has dropped with the DUP over this, and they have finally abandoned the idea of a hard brexit and possibly brexit all together if it threatens NI position in the union. They would rather remain. Thus the GFA problem is at least acknowledged.
9. The DUP did something curious in the indicative votes. They signalled where there was room for them to move, in how they voted - they revealed what they were opposed to and what they might be talked into with their abstaining
10. There seems to be moves elsewhere to a softer brexit with more signatories to Common Market 2.0 gaining support and more vocal support for the Customs Union.
11. Donald Tusk signalled that the EU could change the PD to a custom union relatively easily.
12. May had a meeting earlier with ministers who are urging her to go for No Deal now
13. May said cryptically after the vote in the commons that the process was almost beyond what the house could provide. What she meant by this isn't obvious.
14. The problem is that any deal requires the WA to pass... the WA merely is the divorce arrangement and not the economic and political alignment aftewards. All soft Brexits require the WA.

The DUP will never support the backstop.
And Labour although they say they accept the WA will never support a blind Brexit and distrust the Tories fearing they will backtrack on any PD.
The only way to square this circle is to have a legally binding PD which looks a lot like the backstop with NI and the rUK in it.
Which the ERG would never buy into.
And the EU might not allow.

And to get an extension we'd need to pass legislation for EP elections - and its difficult to work out where May would get a majority in the HoC from to facilitate that without the government collasping in the attempt.

Thus as we move forward the stakes get higher, and without any progress on a deal the chances of both No Deal and Revoke get higher. And I don't fancy testing May's resolve to revoke - especially since that might require parliamentary approval too. Is there a majority to revoke if the alternative really is No Deal?

Parliament needs to move FAST to avoid both. Parliament isn't good at moving fast.

I also note that the DUP's political survival might well rest now with remaining. Apparently like the Conservatives, the uncertainity of Brexit has lead to a loss of confidence in the party amongst business leaders, which has led to a drop in donations. This is coupled with May's threat that No Deal would result in Direct Rule. The likes of Arlene are on the Stormont Pay Role, so this would starve them of money there. And this is all without the prospect of polling on an all Ireland referendum. The ERG hanging them out to dry, only serves to make it or the more likely.

Surely an election beckons one way or another, later this year? This is unsustainable for the DUP. And for May who has today, refused to rule one out...

Prediction: We are going to get through a lot of threads and have late nights between the 9th and 12th.

Yes, those who embrace No Deal - genuinely understanding what it means - would be of the privileged, moneyed class,
whether Leaver or Remainer, hard right Tory or Champagne Socialist

It is a very interesting survey because it highlights that the voters of all persuasions are not at all fooled by the "compromises" which don't deliver.

Perhaps they’ve been listening to what the EU has repeatedly said about further negotiation.

DG That's why I said "if"

Will Labour & centrist Remainers close their eyes, grit their teeth and vote Labour to keep out the Tories,
or will they vote for one of the smaller parties that have been true to Remain ?

Since Corbyn is obviously trying to get Brexit through, just with the Tories' fingerprints on the deed,
I very probably won't be voting Labour

It would be rewarding treachery

According to that poll, about 20% of remain voters support No Deal

Without nuance, that's less than helpful (thanks RTB for your observartions).

Speaking solely for myself, no-deal is the only "pure" form of Brexit. In the night out analogy, it's everyone going hungry rather than 80% of a group ending up a restaurant that only 10% wanted but the other 40% couldn't agree on anything else between them. With 50% who never wanted to go out anyway.

There also comes a point in any argument when the easiest way to make your point is simply to progress your opponents crap thinking. Especially when it annoys them. Two years ago, there was a lot of testosterone-fueled talk about "no deal" being better than a "bad deal". Well, big boys, now's your chance.

I'd hope any doctor that Gove had to go and see since 2016 simply said - ah, Mr. Gove, I've decided my mothers bridge partner should have the final say on your condition. I know you'd approve, since we're all tired of experts now, aren't we ? - it's a similar technique.

Will Labour & centrist Remainers close their eyes, grit their teeth and vote Labour to keep out the Tories, or will they vote for one of the smaller parties that have been true to Remain ?

Not this one. Remember a vote for Labour was that 80% vote for Brexit. Fuck that.

Taking into account that huge number of things could happen during an election campaign and shifts of opinions, does anyone feel concerned about low turnout leading to more extremist winners after a g.e? Especially if there's deselection a-go go occurring? Or will it even out?

Taking into account that huge number of things could happen during an election campaign and shifts of opinions, does anyone feel concerned about low turnout leading to more extremist winners after a g.e? Especially if there's deselection a-go go occurring? Or will it even out?

UK GE turnout is fairly consistent

researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-8060%23fullreport

1992 had a higher turnout than 2017, and 2001 was a low point.

Something to bear in mind when Tories were quaking in their boots over UKIP - for all the talk-talk no more voters were found. Suggesting UKIPs numbers were "stolen" from existing parties.

What can let extremists in would be a multiplicity of opponents - which the UKs FPTP system not only cannot handle, but actually encourages the "wrong" candidate to be returned. The £500 deposit is a token nod to preventing that, but totally ineffective if a rich bad actor decided to try and game the system.

The real concern is that by overlaying Leave/Remain on top of such a broken system, you will end up with MPs that represent no one. So much for "democracy". And once the rot has set in, where the majority not only feel, but see they are not represented, you start the long, quick decline into a country where laws get passed, people ignore them, and you need a paramilitary police to get anything done. You know - those countries we'd sneer at and feel superior about it "would never happen here". Those countries.

Won't vote Labour while JC is at the helm.
Agree DG - when I think I would be happier with No Deal it is when I think the only way to get over this is for suffering and swift action against those touting it as the best idea on the planet. Repercussions and arrests, public humiliations and the rest. They will be in the firing line at last, rather than the moderate centre ground who have clearly been trying not to allow No Deal. If we half out/Bino these people will just keep poking the hornets nest. With little to show people the real dangers it will keep growing once again, if not over Brexit it will be over something else. We need to make it more dangerous for politicians and funders like Banks and Bannon to do this, not mitigate for them.

I can understand why some Remainers might think that No Deal is what is required or what they'd prefer (which is different to saying "what they they want" ), even though they understand the consequences

I think it was LonelyPlanet who talked before about the hubris of certain people in the UK. That there are still some - not even the disaster capitalists who are fully aware of, and are salivating over, the consequences who still have they mindset of "They need us more than we need them" and worse Don't they know who we are?" The Empire 2.0 mindset

It may be that the only way to lance the boil of this mindset is to let them see that , " No , the world doesn't know who we are" and "No, Empire 2.0 does not and will not exist"

That it is only if we go through this, through the pain of nemesis, that we as a country can finally reach catharsis

However, despite the fact that dh and I are comfortably off and that a No Deal Brexit very likely will bring about Scottish Independence more quickly, I cannot bring myself to actively want it . It would bring about pain to too many who don't deserve it - whatever May might say about them "voting for pain"

I was just thinking "which rich bad actor is DG thinking of?" Then I thought "ohhhhhh! Bad actor. Not bad actor!!!!"

Won't vote Labour while JC is at the helm.

I don't care who is at the helm. It's policies all the way.

I stand by what I said ages ago. If the Tories were to campaign on a remain ticket, they'd get my vote in a general election. Certainly over a Labour candidate saddled with an official "we're leaving" policy.

Remember to counter each and every assertion that the 2016 Referendum was "the biggest democratic exercise that this country has ever seen" with

a) it's a straight lie as more people voted in the 1992 election and anyway

b) with an increasing population, absolute numbers are meaningless and percentages are more appropriate. And the majority of elections in the 20th century had higher percentages of the electorate voting.

It may be that the only way to lance the boil of this mindset is to let them see that

Nope. You never will. It's become a religion with them. Nothing will change their minds. Imagine a paranoid abusive partner who has convinced themselves (wrongly) that their partner is cheating. What advice would MNetters give in that situation ? LTB, or work on "lancing the boil of the mindset".

It's like the number of white men wandering our streets convinced they're somehow disadvantaged now compared to women and minorities. No amount of facts will change their mind. Coz they know, you know ?

Best thing to do with that level of stupid is to quietly move it to the side, and feed it with bread and circuses. And I don't care how elitist that sounds. I prefer my facts to your feelz any day of the week.

“Won't vote Labour while JC is at the helm”

I can’t either, him, McDonnell, the rest of the Momentum puppets.
Next GE will be agonising, don’t know what to do: but ultimately gut feeling is that the combination of Brexit plus JC as PM and McDonnell in No. 11 would just compound the disaster, economically.

DM polls today.
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6868745/Jeremy-Corbyn-PM-calls-election-shock-poll-reveals-Labour-five-point-lead.html

I recommend Nick Robinson's podcast this week - the whole episode is interviewing Sir Oliver Letwin.

He comes across as extraordinarily reasonable and sane.

2017 GE in my town was

35k+ for tory
14.5k for labour
3k+ for lib dem
1.5 k for UKIP

I really dont think labour will get it...even if i do hold my nose and vote for them

He comes across as extraordinarily reasonable and sane.

This isn't a high bar in the current political climate.

All you have to do, is make sure you don't repeat a social media trope, and be reasonably literate.

I don't disagree with you DGR unfortunately

But at least I have the hope of escape via Scottish Independence to buoy me up. And then maybe we can show FUKD that there is a better way , should it choose a different path. but there again, there may still be a majority that shut their eyes and stick their fingers in their ears chanting "La, la, la"

But at least I have the hope of escape via Scottish Independence to buoy me up.

After Brexit, I'd like to support any party that promises a second indyref. It's a point of honour with me after the borderline (no pun intended ) lies from last time.

Nothing will change their minds.

I agree, sadly. I've already seen how every down side since the vote has been denied/blamed on something else.

It will all be the fault of someone or something else, global downturn, the non-brexit faithful 'talking the country down', the evil EU scheming to punish us, yadda yadda.

There's always been - and always will be - a section of society that will not engage rationally, for some reason.

In fact I'd suggest that the emergence of working systems of government is the study of how best to ensure these people have no influence without descending into a dystopian Eloi and Morlock nightmare. The fact that it was on Wells' mind means it's hardly new.

For the most part, I don't really give a shit what anyones beliefs are. However that passive approach tends to end up with peoples beliefs being forced onto the masses with nasty ways of ensuring people "believe" - or else. I mean burning at the stake ?

Tempting though it is, to try to lance the boil, it wouldn't work
and the poorest, most vulnerable, those dependent on meds will suffer badly

The rich bastards - Redwood, Mogg, Banks & co - would be laughing all the way to the bank;
if there were public anger against them, they'd be long gone to somewhere safe

I think the Tory vote in Scotland will collapse again after all this, and we'll be back to a less extreme version of 2015 with Labour vs SNP as the primary parties. Poor Ruth Davidson, she worked so hard to rehabilitate the party up here, and seems a decent sort - she's one that I respect even when I disagree with her politics.