Westministenders: The DisUnited Kingdom of Remaina

[RedToothBrush]

Todays News Round Up (so far):

1. MV2.5 failed by 58 votes.
2. Labour Rebels were not tempted by May's promises of consultation with parliament over the next phase. This is because this is not a binding promise and with a possible change of leader this is even more lacking in substance
3. More ERG than expected switched to supporting the WA. This included leadership hopefuls Johnson and Raab. But there were still 28 hold outs plus 6 Tory Remain Rebels.
4. Macron said that the EU would be the ones to decide the timetable for no deal if we failed to pass the WA or ask for an extension by 12th April. Thus 12th April is NOT necessarily the cliff edge we fear, though it still is no deal. (Its just a possible time delay). As far as a lengthy extension goes he would want not just EP election participation but also more in the way of a concrete way forward than we currently have though.
5. The EUCO are meeting on the April 10th. Thus we have until then to work something out. Thats quite the ask.
6. A series of mini deals in the event of No Deal is something the EU are firmly ruling out. And yet the myth that this will happen is still out there.
7. No Deal would probably mean the Backstop being in effect anyway in practice, simply because its the only way to stop a hard border.
8. The penny has dropped with the DUP over this, and they have finally abandoned the idea of a hard brexit and possibly brexit all together if it threatens NI position in the union. They would rather remain. Thus the GFA problem is at least acknowledged.
9. The DUP did something curious in the indicative votes. They signalled where there was room for them to move, in how they voted - they revealed what they were opposed to and what they might be talked into with their abstaining
10. There seems to be moves elsewhere to a softer brexit with more signatories to Common Market 2.0 gaining support and more vocal support for the Customs Union.
11. Donald Tusk signalled that the EU could change the PD to a custom union relatively easily.
12. May had a meeting earlier with ministers who are urging her to go for No Deal now
13. May said cryptically after the vote in the commons that the process was almost beyond what the house could provide. What she meant by this isn't obvious.
14. The problem is that any deal requires the WA to pass... the WA merely is the divorce arrangement and not the economic and political alignment aftewards. All soft Brexits require the WA.

The DUP will never support the backstop.
And Labour although they say they accept the WA will never support a blind Brexit and distrust the Tories fearing they will backtrack on any PD.
The only way to square this circle is to have a legally binding PD which looks a lot like the backstop with NI and the rUK in it.
Which the ERG would never buy into.
And the EU might not allow.

And to get an extension we'd need to pass legislation for EP elections - and its difficult to work out where May would get a majority in the HoC from to facilitate that without the government collasping in the attempt.

Thus as we move forward the stakes get higher, and without any progress on a deal the chances of both No Deal and Revoke get higher. And I don't fancy testing May's resolve to revoke - especially since that might require parliamentary approval too. Is there a majority to revoke if the alternative really is No Deal?

Parliament needs to move FAST to avoid both. Parliament isn't good at moving fast.

I also note that the DUP's political survival might well rest now with remaining. Apparently like the Conservatives, the uncertainity of Brexit has lead to a loss of confidence in the party amongst business leaders, which has led to a drop in donations. This is coupled with May's threat that No Deal would result in Direct Rule. The likes of Arlene are on the Stormont Pay Role, so this would starve them of money there. And this is all without the prospect of polling on an all Ireland referendum. The ERG hanging them out to dry, only serves to make it or the more likely.

Surely an election beckons one way or another, later this year? This is unsustainable for the DUP. And for May who has today, refused to rule one out...

Prediction: We are going to get through a lot of threads and have late nights between the 9th and 12th.

I still don’t believe that Boris actually wants the UK to Leave the EU.............

He’s all about amibition and I wonder if he regrets the hand he has played even though there is now a chance he will be PM.

That’s all he’s ever wanted. And he would destroy anyone and anything to get it.

Sorry lonely I didn't want to imply you were judging them on those grounds, just that I try to separate the origins from the person iyswim.

What would happen if the Queen died? Wouldn't we all then miraculously somehow pull together.

Philip will go first and she will follow. It's the most awful thing about coupling up isn't it? One of you whilst elderly and fragile has to face such a huge trauma.

Sorry but I think Jon Snow's comment was bollocks. It just is manna from heaven for those who want to attack liberal media. I face palmed about it.

What Jon snow wanted to say, was it was it had all the hallmarks of a white supremacist march.

However he a) couldn't actually say that cos it'd potentially be liablous and b) it's political bias without proper evidence it was, which as a broadcast journalist he really shouldn't be doing to this extent.

It made him look like a momentumal plonker in a thousand memes.

Everyone knows what he really means but the reality is it has backfired spectacularly.

It was very ill advised.

"The rise of the far right isn't a direct Brexit related thing anyway. This 'cultural war' exists far beyond Brexit."

Yes. It's one of several reasons why I'm annoyed by the argument that we should push a hard Brexit through to avoid riots. Leaving the EU is just one front for the far right. They're not going to disappear if we give them what they want this time.

It's fine Songs - to be honest the hypocrisies of some politicians (and posters) was on my mind - due to a poster on another thread commenting negatively on foreign sounding surnames.

The Herald in Scotland is riffing very powerfully a la Trainspotting.

Time for the Tories to Choose - something / anything

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-47764631

Random18

I’m really, really struggling with this too, just how on earth this transparent man can still retain a shred of credibility. But he does, apparently: the Conservative membership’s darling and a dead cert if he gets through to the final 2. Just staggering. How gullible are all these people?

BoJo
{That’s all he’s ever wanted. And he would destroy anyone and anything to get it.}
Maybe make him kin of a small island somewhere to get him out of the way. i think there are some small rocks dotted around the world that are British dependencies, maybe one of those.

Really amazing visual images on this twitter account for where MP's are placed for the indicative votes. I'm struggling to copy the image but maybe someone else can try.

@alexandreafonso

If the queen died there would be all the hoo ha around that to deal with on top of the Brexit hoo ha

{"The rise of the far right isn't a direct Brexit related thing anyway. This 'cultural war' exists far beyond Brexit."}

Although the far right parties in the rest of the EU may have some common ground with those in the UK, and probably the USA, it would be infinitely better for the UK to remain and tackle the issue jointly.
The UK on it's own having the far right 'sponsored' by some in the UK, plus USA and Russia will be very difficult to prevent.

This is the level of problem-solving we can expect - nuanced and considered it ain’t

1TisILeClerc

I now have an image of him standing on the shingle, in Cnut (now there’s a Freudian slip begging to happen) costume ordering back the waves. Thanks for that

Rumour circulating that WA to be presented for the fourth time on Wednesday in the form of some sort of legislation. On Andrew Married show.

Indicative votes won't find a solution while TM keeps whipping Tories to vote against everything thus rendering the indicative vote process a complete waste of time and effort.

I'm preparing for WA to get through a change of Tory leadership to hard brexiteer or we fall out with no deal after EU refuses further extension or TM refuses to try and get an extension.
Either way this country is all but finished as one of the worlds leaders. R.I.P.

Blair didn't follow democratic process:
he lied about WMD
he twisted what the intelligence specialists were reporting

To those of my friends who still defended him once this became obvious,
I said that the destruction of trust in what a PM & a govt tell us could be disastrous one day for Britain,

both because of the growth in cynicism towards the institutions of state in everyday life
and because someday it might be desperately important for us to believe the PM, to trust their judgement ... and we wouldn't

imo, he spiked the wave of disbelief in experts and towards a PM advising Remain
There were many reasons Leave won, but this was one of them

The far right are not stupid.The leavers being played by them may be but the organisers, who controlled the leave campaign, have definite plans to infiltrate our society and government.
In fact they are already doing so.
We shouldn’t pander to them, or give in to them but that won’t make them go away.

Is the interview live now, @NigellasGuest?

I like David Gauke's confidence that No Deal will be avoided on andrew marr interview just now

The Washington Post article is interesting: my personal version of "socialism" is closer to meritocracy, with its emphasis on equality of opportunity and "free at point of use" health and education and supporting the poorest and most vulnerable.

Interestingly, ds (who has just come down from Uni for the Spring holidays) was saying to me on Friday that he felt that the Nordic countries politics had actually quite rightwing (as they saw it) politics but that at their core they had a set of policies and values to do with what the US would seem to be a "welfare state".

On these threads, we've talked before about the fact that much of what is now deemed to be "dangerously" left wing and controversial here in the UK is actually quite mainstream in the other European countries, including policies by Merkel's "rightwing" party.

I think some a lot of the blame for that is our FPTP system based on confrontational politics, where compromise is a dirty word

What we should have had after the Referendum - especially after such a close result, but even if it hadn't been as "Leave" wasn't defined contrary to the Brexiters current assertions - was a Green Paper during which (and before A50 was invoked) the options could be explored and parliamentarians, as well as public, public bodies and businesses, could have responded formally and debated the different proportions like adults

I know, I know, it's crying over split milk and wanting to re-write history to one where we had a grown-up PM and a sensible parliament Just as much a unicorn and sunlit uplands fantasy as the one held by the Brexiters

Someone, I think it was Peter Hennessy (apologies Pete, if I’m mistaken) was talking again last week about the political atmosphere in Germany in the late 30s.
My feelings are completely at odds on this, in that the first thought is don’t be so bloody dramatic but then that little voice whispers “bet that’s what moderates thought then too, and look what happened”.

I’m trying on this lovely, sunny Spring day to remember what the atmosphere was in our countries before this madness kicked off but find it very difficult to do.

Sorry, that was to Woodpigeons

@Littlespaces I've got the images, will try to post. Love me a network graph. Plus he's done a cat shaped version, maybe he's following this thread!

I think we need to remind Leavers that many of the reasons they harp on about leaving are project fear too - EU Army, Turkey, crash of EURO etc etc. The thing my leaver friend always talks about is the 'creeping' nature, so it's not something they have actually seen happen but a threat. The other day I pointed out that the trouble with leavers is that they voted for the biggest constitutional change our country has experienced in 300 years and yet expect it to have NO repercussions on their lives! They either voted for massive change, or they didn't - which is it? Leaver friend was confused by that as it's a bit too self reflective.

I am just catching up so long one, sorry!

The Trumpism/evangelical influences leading to Bannon supporting Boris I've already mentioned seeing on fb. I think it was last month on fb a Leaver I know posted several anti-abortion memes coming directly from American evangelists. He also posted something about killing any man who tries to get with his daughter (who is a baby, so I felt this crossed into hatred of paedophiles/played on that emotional pull) as well as showing a deep lack of comprehension that if he teaches his daughter to be a strong independent woman she will be able to make her own decisions and save him a prison sentence. Leavers are primed for this emotional response as we know. We need to highlight these memes where we see them and kindly put forward another perspective (e.g necessity for abortion if mother is likely to die or as above with the teaching women to be educated and independent means they don't need protectionism). I see the two as very linked and it is concerning for our freedoms as women.

Re the votes on Monday - I really can't highlight enough how I want to see the video shown to HoC to explain CU to them. I think it should be broadcast to the nation. Everyone should have to watch it. That might sort out some of the bluster.

Re what would cause less far right rioting...perhaps controversially I suspect No Deal would keep people too busy to form any kind of rebellion. Austerity has shown how hard being poor and having reduced services affects your voice. They allowed this voice out briefly to vote for Brexit, just to show us 'middle ground'ers where to blame (socially) IMO. I think a lot of the leave authoritarian vote would actually back something along the lines of martial law if the perceived thugs took over (although seeing the march I am hopeful we can see the threat isn't a huge one at the moment - we must keep on remembering this). Of course after No Deal the 'thugs' would be anyone who was upset at not getting medication/food etc, but by then the conditioning that they are "mindless racists" would be complete. We as a nation would welcome it if it kept them from our towns/cities. They may not even need martial law, just use the thugs to threaten and excuse taking away personal freedoms. It's a way they can turn liberals against liberals by re-branding thug from racist to medicine poor or food poor.

Have decided not to leave for the gym this morning until petition has reached 6 million. It had better hurry up or my Sunday routine will be disrupted!