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Brexit

Westministenders: The DisUnited Kingdom of Remaina

953 replies

RedToothBrush · 29/03/2019 19:58

Todays News Round Up (so far):

  1. MV2.5 failed by 58 votes.
  2. Labour Rebels were not tempted by May's promises of consultation with parliament over the next phase. This is because this is not a binding promise and with a possible change of leader this is even more lacking in substance
  3. More ERG than expected switched to supporting the WA. This included leadership hopefuls Johnson and Raab. But there were still 28 hold outs plus 6 Tory Remain Rebels.
  4. Macron said that the EU would be the ones to decide the timetable for no deal if we failed to pass the WA or ask for an extension by 12th April. Thus 12th April is NOT necessarily the cliff edge we fear, though it still is no deal. (Its just a possible time delay). As far as a lengthy extension goes he would want not just EP election participation but also more in the way of a concrete way forward than we currently have though.
  5. The EUCO are meeting on the April 10th. Thus we have until then to work something out. Thats quite the ask.
  6. A series of mini deals in the event of No Deal is something the EU are firmly ruling out. And yet the myth that this will happen is still out there.
  7. No Deal would probably mean the Backstop being in effect anyway in practice, simply because its the only way to stop a hard border.
  8. The penny has dropped with the DUP over this, and they have finally abandoned the idea of a hard brexit and possibly brexit all together if it threatens NI position in the union. They would rather remain. Thus the GFA problem is at least acknowledged.
  9. The DUP did something curious in the indicative votes. They signalled where there was room for them to move, in how they voted - they revealed what they were opposed to and what they might be talked into with their abstaining
  10. There seems to be moves elsewhere to a softer brexit with more signatories to Common Market 2.0 gaining support and more vocal support for the Customs Union.
  11. Donald Tusk signalled that the EU could change the PD to a custom union relatively easily.
  12. May had a meeting earlier with ministers who are urging her to go for No Deal now
  13. May said cryptically after the vote in the commons that the process was almost beyond what the house could provide. What she meant by this isn't obvious.
  14. The problem is that any deal requires the WA to pass... the WA merely is the divorce arrangement and not the economic and political alignment aftewards. All soft Brexits require the WA.

The DUP will never support the backstop.
And Labour although they say they accept the WA will never support a blind Brexit and distrust the Tories fearing they will backtrack on any PD.
The only way to square this circle is to have a legally binding PD which looks a lot like the backstop with NI and the rUK in it.
Which the ERG would never buy into.
And the EU might not allow.

And to get an extension we'd need to pass legislation for EP elections - and its difficult to work out where May would get a majority in the HoC from to facilitate that without the government collasping in the attempt.

Thus as we move forward the stakes get higher, and without any progress on a deal the chances of both No Deal and Revoke get higher. And I don't fancy testing May's resolve to revoke - especially since that might require parliamentary approval too. Is there a majority to revoke if the alternative really is No Deal?

Parliament needs to move FAST to avoid both. Parliament isn't good at moving fast.

I also note that the DUP's political survival might well rest now with remaining. Apparently like the Conservatives, the uncertainity of Brexit has lead to a loss of confidence in the party amongst business leaders, which has led to a drop in donations. This is coupled with May's threat that No Deal would result in Direct Rule. The likes of Arlene are on the Stormont Pay Role, so this would starve them of money there. And this is all without the prospect of polling on an all Ireland referendum. The ERG hanging them out to dry, only serves to make it or the more likely.

Surely an election beckons one way or another, later this year? This is unsustainable for the DUP. And for May who has today, refused to rule one out...

Prediction: We are going to get through a lot of threads and have late nights between the 9th and 12th.

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Thread gallery
48
Sostenueto · 31/03/2019 08:06

Happy Mothers Day to all!Flowers
Peace and goodwill to all.Flowers

Sostenueto · 31/03/2019 08:09

There will be no resignations. Its smoke without fire. ( sigh).

RedToothBrush · 31/03/2019 08:47

I literally cannot see an outcome which doesn't result in the rise of the far right, some civil unrest, and some uncomfortable times ahead politically. I think we are infor a very bumpy ride, no matter what happens.

Yes. Been the writing on the wall since the ref result.

There is no way out of it.

It has many echoes of football hooliganism and that's where it should largely get filed. Even out of all those protesting the other day only a few will take further than group intimidation and mindless violence though thankfully.

The rise of the far right isn't a direct Brexit related thing anyway. This 'cultural war' exists far beyond Brexit.

I've just read a research paper on hooliganism and it's interesting that it says that Thatcher used football hooliganism as a justification tool to promote her general tough law and order policy. It was used as a way to justify harsh treatment on certain communities.

I found a fascinating phase from a report from 1986:
The" deterrence approach" promulgated by members of the "control culture" seems to be nothing more than a short term, cosmetic solution to a problem rooted in the sociocultural context and political reality of British society.

Note, reference to culture primarily rather than economic.

It stresses says its not purely economic, though it is part of the issue. Its more about this sense of being controlled, and there being a backlash against it. It also says that the more harsh the treatment the greater the backlash was. And it stresses the importance of identity in that.

I note here that football hooliganism was not simply wiped out by force. It was often displaced by more middle class people going to football matches.

And in terms of Brexit you have this idea of being invaded or displaced. And actually I think gentrification and 'social cleansing' rather than immigration is a larger immediate force on a lot of white communities. But this is sense is fed hugely by political correctness too. It is a dual effect not a singular one.

That's a battle that Corbyn isn't the right person for regardless of his economic policy. He embodies this idea of 'liberal facism'.

And its also why the rhetoric of Boris Johnson works, but he can't solve those problems because of his feelings on economic control.

Politicians being so caught up in their own bubble of reality which is disconnected from everyday experience does not help.

It was said about the Arab Spring that it was about dignity not democracy. And that's very relevant. And none of the political parties are really understanding the nature of the problem properly.

Hence why the likes of Aaron Banks and Nigel Farage get traction despite being elite and rich.

I'd argue it can only be solved by someone with a strong regional accent who has not been to Oxford or Cambridge.

OP posts:
Motheroffourdragons · 31/03/2019 08:51

This reply has been deleted

This has been deleted by MNHQ to protect the privacy of the user.

RedToothBrush · 31/03/2019 08:54

I do think the Queen genuinely would want what is good for the whole country. I am not a Royalist by any means, but I do think she takes her duty seriously. Theresa May I am sure thinks she is doing her duty, but she does have a strange way of showing it.

Absolutely and I think history will in time show that the relationship between the Queen and May will be very strained for this reason.

However I'm sure the Queen is perhaps the one person May will show some real deference to because of her beliefs too.

If should it come to it, May revokes, I would not be surprised if it was straight off the back of advice from May.

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TatianaLarina · 31/03/2019 09:08

There are always riots with Tory administrations - Brixton, Toxteth, 2010.

Except this time - would be rioters are not rising up against socio-economic hardship and a hard right government. They’re hard right arseholes throwing their weight around to get what they want. Or what they think they’re want - they’re too stupid to know the reality.

TatianaLarina · 31/03/2019 09:14

Interesting Tory gossip from MoS. May is blaming Raab and Boris for putting the DUP off her deal. (Never one to take responsibility for her own fuckups).

DUP had a meeting last week with both and came away saying the two were ‘not Unionists’. Quite correctly. They would both sell NI down the river to get out of the EU and a US trade deal.

If either became PM, NI would end up alone in the backstop.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 31/03/2019 09:20

It's very clear that threatening unrest should brexit be cancelled is actually a Project Fear type tactic on behalf of the Brexiteers.

Driedlimes · 31/03/2019 09:20

First time poster but have been following these threads since they started. Thank you for such intelligent commentary and debate - this is now the first place I come for updates on the sorry saga.

@Icantreachthepretzels - I agree.
Had a soft Brexit been sought from the outset, these views might have been marginalised. I can understand (but fervently disagree with) arguments about political sovereignty, which I believe were the only 'legitimate' pro - Brexshit arguments around.

Exiting the political institutions only would have dealt with that issue, exposing the arguments for leaving the single market/CU for the racism ( and disaster capitalism) that it really is.

Peregrina · 31/03/2019 09:22

This is getting tedious: I wish the Tories get on with it and split. I wonder what each faction would call themselves?

RedToothBrush · 31/03/2019 09:27

They would both sell NI down the river to get out of the EU and a US trade deal.

Incorrect. Its got fuck all to do with the EU and US. They would sell their own mothers to be prime minister.

It's just blind naked personal ambition.

Dressing it as having any kind of ideological grounding makes it sound like it has some noble cause at its heart. It has not a drop of it.

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TatianaLarina · 31/03/2019 09:30

Incorrect. Its got fuck all to do with the EU and US. They would sell their own mothers to be prime minister.

That’s a separate issue. They’d sell their entire families to be PM that’s taken as read.

However wrt to NI - both Boris and Raab would happily leave NI in the backstop to get freedom from the EU.

They don’t give a fuck about NI, avoiding a hard border, or keeping the Union complete.

lonelyplanetmum · 31/03/2019 09:33

DUP had a meeting last week with both and came away saying the two were ‘not Unionists’.

Also why are the DUP meeting them?

Boris and Raab haven't any particular role at the moment....other than PMs in waiting??

(Both of them with significant EU migrant heritage night I add.)

TatianaLarina · 31/03/2019 09:38

According to the MoS May was desperately trying to get the DUP on board with her deal and that’s why Raab and Boris met them.

I can’t think of 2 more persuasive people.

Peregrina · 31/03/2019 09:44

Johnson, Raab, Rees-Mogg and a few others I am sure would be more than happy to cosy up to the US even more than they do now, and we would hear no more about vassal states.

Songsofexperience · 31/03/2019 09:45

Both of them with significant EU migrant heritage night I add.

I'm always wary of using people's heritage to judge them or their beliefs in any way... but since we're on the topic I think theirs are quite complex. Boris was a US citizen until very recently. Raab's heritage I believe is Jewish from Silesia, a part of Eastern Europe that's possibly got one of the most unresolved identity (people from there were displaced by the millions after the war). I would speculate that for different reasons they may both have a very ambivalent relationship to the continent.

howabout · 31/03/2019 09:46

A couple of weeks back Nigel Evans and Kate Hoey had a very good natured outing on The Daily Politics. Interesting to have Labour and Tory Leave both represented as it is rare.

Both agreed the major strategic error for TM and co was failure to recognise she is governing at the behest of the DUP. The internal machinations of the different factions of the Tory Party were / are always irrelevant as eventually ALL of them can be persuaded to put principle aside in favour of Party / personal ambition - it's what makes them Tories.

Therefore if Boris / Raab were being asked to "sell" the WA to the DUP no wonder they failed spectacularly. If the DUP had been selling their version of Brexit / BRINO to Boris / Raab then the Erg would all have been bought.

lonelyplanetmum · 31/03/2019 09:56

Dressing it as having any kind of ideological grounding makes it sound like it has some noble cause at its heart

I agree that Boris is all naked ambition over ideology. But generally I don't think that ideology necessarily equates to noble.Sometimes ideology equates to sinister.

It will have been covered before on these threads but I do think there's been a growing ideological shift in Tory politicians - and I think it is very worrying.

Whilst Thatcher seemed toxic at the time.. now her grocer's girl made good seems a more acceptable face of meritocracy.

There is a shift just like in the US ( see Washington post link ) there are hundreds of MPs who want to erode public expenditure on the weak. The main targets are welfare, health and education.

As I've said before on here recently if people like JRM, Boris, Gove, Duncan Smith, Raab resent 0.7% of GDP on EU membership they sure as hell resent the 60% plus that goes on health, education and welfare.

Ideological shifts happen slowly and imperceptibly and they have been happening. It's very very worrying.

www.washingtonpost.com/news/volokh-conspiracy/wp/2017/09/22/libertarianism-vs-meritocracy/?utm_term=.ab949d4f3651

67chevvyimpala · 31/03/2019 09:56

Morning.
As its mothers day here in the UK I'm taking the day off from this godawful shitshow.
Let's see what fresh hell tomorrow brings....

pepinana · 31/03/2019 09:58

An avid anti brexit, pretty racist family member emailed me this video yesterday.

m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1013621148835809&id=404235893107674&sfnsn=mo

I don't know whether to laugh or cry!!

CurlyWurlyTwirly · 31/03/2019 09:59

This popped up in my twitter feed.
Jon Snow was notbwrong; despite being made to apologise.
I think the choice is: Remain civil unrest for a short time
Leave (hard Brexit): hardship and civil unrest for a long time, when Leavers experience what they have actually voted for.

Westministenders: The DisUnited Kingdom of Remaina
GoFiguire · 31/03/2019 10:01

I agree that Boris is all naked ambition over ideology.

Please do not put Boris and naked in the same sentence ever again.

lonelyplanetmum · 31/03/2019 10:02

I'm always wary of using people's heritage to judge them or their beliefs in any way

I agree - I wasn't judging Raab or Boris on those grounds. There are plenty of substantive grounds to judge them on.

I was making an ironic statement the Brexit posters on here who do say they don't want EU migration - yet then repeat rhetoric from EU migrant politicians!

NigellasGuest · 31/03/2019 10:04

This is a weird thing to say but please God the Queen doesn't slip off this mortal coil during this ungodly mess.

NigellasGuest · 31/03/2019 10:05

I'm listening to Nogel Farage interviewing Alistair Campbell at the moment. What a combination!