Westminstenders: Pragmatism versus Purity

[RedToothBrush]

There is one question for the HoC in the next week and that's will you persue pragmatism or purity?

May looks as if she is being sidelined after a backbench withdrawal of support, the DUPs withdrawal of support and an omminous silence eminenating from the Cabinet.

Her speech on Thursday where she pitted the people against parliament has been her last mistake. She's now a danger to the country's stability and the safety of MPs.

The priority for the week is to pass the SI to change the UK exit date from 29th March to the EU's new terms.

After that, with May's deal stuffed due to lack of support and a Bercow ruling it looks like we are facing some sort of indicative free vote. This seems to be being supported by ministers in government regardless of leave or remain.

The prospect of a Tory Leader Election contest looms. It remains to seen if that can happen in the next three weeks with so much else at stake. But this is the Tory party.

The penny seems to be finally dropping about the reality of leaving the EU and how we leave the EU. A week before we were due to go. The incompetence of Parliament is laid bare in all its glorious full scale.

Who gives a fuck what Scotland thinks? The Government certainly doesn't

Didn't the extension to 22 May rely on the WA passing this week.
If the WA isn't passed this week, which looks likely, is it either no deal on 12 April, or some other solution that parliament can come up with (PV, long extension on basis of GE, citizens' juries, etc)?

Is that correct?

that is correct - but May seems to have opted for no deal on the 12th. Question is: can anyone stop her?

{Didn't the extension to 22 May rely on the WA passing this week.}
No, the deadline has been shifted by the EU so that the new deadline is 12 April, not 29th March, and that if the UK want until May 22nd it has to sign the WA by 12 April.

It might all change in a few hours time so not worth getting too excited!

Emma I may be wrong, but I think the CCA can be used for 30 days without Parliamentary approval,
before the govt needs to go to Parliament for 30 days extensions every time

That was the idea - it is an emergency law intended for circumstances requiring quick action, that would deteriorate if the HoC were logjammed / unavailable
i.e. circumventing normal checks & balances to stop a govt having that power.

iirc, Leaks from Yellowhammer were that emergency powers of the CCA was scheduled to become active today.
Movement of troops etc

@red Has this happened yet ?

*the government is working very hard to take steps to minimise the disruption
*
Phew! That's ok then. No need to panic, Mr Mainwaring, DONT PANIC!

that is correct - but May seems to have opted for no deal on the 12th. Question is: can anyone stop her?

The equation that's driving the reaction is (currently)

"anything but no deal" = "tory party explosion"

as long as that's balanced, that's what's happening.

We can't change the "no deal" side of the equation. The EU helpfully fixed that for us to remove one term. The only terms that matter now are "the tory party". To prevent no-deal, it needs to split in advance.

That's the reason May is going nowhere. Her departure would trigger the split she's avoiding. There is an interesting dynamic that the ERG can't scare May as much as a Tory split, even though they are the Tory split.

Jeez, this suddenly seems to have just got so much worse in the last half an hour or so.

Surely she can’t just decide on her own to go for No Deal ?!

@leclerc No, the deadline has been shifted by the EU so that the new deadline is 12 April, not 29th March, and that if the UK want until May 22nd it has to sign the WA by 12 April.

I agree that's moved forward, but my question was if the WA doesn't pass this week, it won't be offered afterwards. The EU will then expect another plan in those two weeks to emerge. Or can May continue with to try and pass the WA on the 10th April, or so?

"3. The European Council agrees to an extension until 22 May 2019, provided the Withdrawal Agreement is approved by the House of Commons next week. If the Withdrawal Agreement is not approved by the House of Commons next week, the European Council agrees to an extension until 12 April 2019 and expects the United Kingdom to indicate a way forward before this date for consideration by the European Council."

Well, Uri Geller assured us he could stop her. We will see whether he's right or not!

Museum Extension to 22 May depends on EITHER the WA passing this week OR the govt presenting another plan to the EU by 12 April

So on 12 April, if the WA hasn't passed and we've no plan for anything else, then it's No Deal
If May intends this, can the HoC get organised and stop her ?

There is another EU Council meeting on 10 April to review the situation / see if they want to throw us another lifebelt
So in practice 10 April is probably the deadline, to get 27 votes for extension

Extension beyond 22 May will NOT happen whatever the plan, if Parliament has not legislated for EP elections by 12 April,
because that is the last possible date to do so

That's why some of the indicative votes may be on a very quick change to the PD, with Brexit on 22 May

We've got to avoid being drama llamas. Ian Blackford didn't look at all shaken or rattled on Sky News.

If the WA were passed after this week, but before the EU Council meeting on 10 April,

EU pragmatism says it's 99.9% certain they'd give us a short "technical" extension - absolutely no later than 30 June - just to pass the WAIB

Sorry, pressed post too soon.

He did say that the no deal info shared with Privy Counsellors was "devastating" but Govt attempts to put the frighteners on him didn't look as though they had worked.

If she tries a no deal coup, not sure it's constitutionally valid.

Lack of constitutionally validity hasn't stopped her before? Trying to act unilaterally before about triggering A50 and trying to circumvent disclosure of impact assessments and the meaningful vote.

I was worried about the chosen few attending Chequers yesterday. Rather than a final attempt at persuasion- it could have been a celebratory back me and l'll ignore Parliament (again)?

All the ERG looked positive and smirky arriving at Chequers. Why would Rees Mogg invite the DS if he didn't feel it was a significant historical victorious moment for his progeny to witness.

Where the fuck is Jeremy Corbyn in this? As leader of the opposition he should be leading the opposite and wiping the floor with the government. Instead he's nowhere to be seen, busy playing with his potatoes.

Sorry I'm being a drama llama.Ridiculous that I or anyone could have so little faith as to believe ND still feasible. .

What are the available tools to avoid a PM going rogue then?

TM is not forwarding any indicative votes in her name. I still believe she is trying to stop any indicative votes or she just let's Parliament take over ( sigh). Its just too much for my little brain now.

Where the fuck is Jeremy Corbyn in this?

Not so much about where he is than about what he is. Complicit. Waiting for chaos.

Where the fuck is Jeremy Corbyn in this?

Waiting for it to happen.

JC got egged! Don't think i've seen this on here?

Was on 3rd March he got egged - don't remember reading about it though?