Westminstenders: Pragmatism versus Purity

[RedToothBrush]

There is one question for the HoC in the next week and that's will you persue pragmatism or purity?

May looks as if she is being sidelined after a backbench withdrawal of support, the DUPs withdrawal of support and an omminous silence eminenating from the Cabinet.

Her speech on Thursday where she pitted the people against parliament has been her last mistake. She's now a danger to the country's stability and the safety of MPs.

The priority for the week is to pass the SI to change the UK exit date from 29th March to the EU's new terms.

After that, with May's deal stuffed due to lack of support and a Bercow ruling it looks like we are facing some sort of indicative free vote. This seems to be being supported by ministers in government regardless of leave or remain.

The prospect of a Tory Leader Election contest looms. It remains to seen if that can happen in the next three weeks with so much else at stake. But this is the Tory party.

The penny seems to be finally dropping about the reality of leaving the EU and how we leave the EU. A week before we were due to go. The incompetence of Parliament is laid bare in all its glorious full scale.

Oh well at least the Tories have been strong and stable.....oh wait

frumpety I recall seeing on this thread last week that the TIGs were speaking to the Electoral Commission urgently to see if they could be recognised as a party in time to enter the EU elections. Bit I'm sorry I don't have a reference for that.

The "cliff edge 2 weeks from Friday" was if (big "if" ) the SIs were passed.

Point is that the cliff edge is still there, whether it is 29 March or 12 April. And I see it as more and more likely (and at those that have put us in this position), given all the other shenanigans going on

And right on cue:

Alex Wickham@alexwickham
NEW: Senior ERG source on Lidington/Gove as caretaker PM

“This stinks of a No10 operation to blackmail us into voting for her deal.

They’ve threatened us with an election, a soft Brexit, no Brexit, and now they are threatening us with David Lidington or Michael Gove becoming PM"

Senior ERG source cont.

"It is a fantasy bogeyman. Both Lidington and Gove support the UK remaining in a customs union with the EU. This would be a betrayal of the referendum result."

ERG source says Lidington/Gove would not have their confidence:

"Theresa May could not advise HMQ to make Lidington or Gove the temporary prime minister as neither would not command the confidence of the House. It would create a constitutional crisis and politicise the Queen."

ERG source cont.

"The only people who stand to gain from this story are No10 and the deal.”

Interestingly the usually leave sympathetic Harry Cole says this:

Harry Cole @mrharrycole
Frankly someone who keeps their phone in the microwave will always see a conspiracy against them.

And there you have it. May's tactics and constant lying now gives the perfect excuse and has created a constitutional crisis.

Looking forward to seeing what Starmer says on Andrew Marr this morning.

I'm off to check my stockpile

The cliff is very firmly the 12th April.

But we might get a legal crisis AS WELL before that.

And we might can No Deal with no clear leadership or chain of command too.

Which, as I say, could be even worse than no dealing this Friday. Which we can no longer do under international law without asking the EU to reverse our extension agreement!!!

@red The UK could have walked out and ended A50 at any time during the initial 2 year period - it is a maximum time, not a requirement
I don't know if the extension agreement removes the UK right to leave at a time earlier

Harry Cole@mrharrycole
Cabinet Minister told The Mail on Sunday: 'The public will never forgive us if in a time of historical crisis our answer is David Lidington. This is where it is going to get very scary, whatever you think about it'.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6844077/amp/Theresa-gone-just-DAYS-Cabinet-ministers-plot-replace-haywire-Prime-Minister.html?__twitter_impression=true
'Haywire' May is told she must go: Minsters plot to install Michael Gove as 'consensus choice' caretaker PM amid Brexiteer outrage over bid to take over by 'Grey Man' Remainer deputy David Liddington

The ridiculousness of that statement!

It suggests that anyone else would be better🤣😂

It's really
'The public will never forgive us if in a time of historical crisis our answer is May or anyone else in the Tory Party seeing as the problem is the Tory Party Civil War. This is where it is going to get very scary, whatever you think about it'.

The trade & diplomatic consequences of No Deal would be the same whether we had left before the 2 years were up, or on the dot

However, leaving earlier than the agreed extension date would MASSIVELY annoy the EU
and show the world what a pain in the arse we are to deal with

So, I don't think even the ERG would be that reckless
They'll blow hard, but I'd be astonished if they really force us out before 12 April or whenever

Their most likely tactic is to just vote against everything except No Deal ... and try to run down the clock

The public will never forgive us if in a time of historical crisis our answer is David Lidington.

On the contrary, the public will go "Eh? Who's this David Lidington chap? Never heard of him."

The THINKING public will never forgive you for CREATING a historical crisis to avoid a Tory Party Civil War ....

and then that same Civil War rendering you hopelessly incapable of dealing with it

For anyone wondering where we are heading on the political scale, check out the path to fascism. chasegalleryconnect.org/FNC_C/Data/Political%20Geography/USA/US%20Fascism/Nascent%20fascism%20defined.html

The Tory benches have become a mix of small c conservatives and nascent fascists. They won't unite behind any leader because they are no longer one party.

Most of us (on this thread) don't want Brexit. Brexit is however possible, May's deal is not too bad (not too good either), it has all the safeguards in it. It is the fighting in the Tory party that has caused the plan to fail. Can you imagine the fighting over the next two years if the WA is passed.

Corbyn is a prat. However, I can understand part of the tactic of give the Tories enough rope and they will hang themselves. Labour has misjudged how the Tories would rather hang the country than the party.

Would any leader be brave enough to throw the ERG out and form a cross party war cabinet? I doubt it. Wrong man at the head of Labour for it to work.

Kinda have the feeling we are fucked, whatever way the wind blows.

1933 could turn to 1935 in one foul stroke next week.

I'll never forgive them anyway,
but if it is possible to make things even worse, then electing Boris / JRM / Leadsom would do it

Big Choc, walking out early requires some sort of affirmative action in the HoC to carry out. Article 50 has to be carried out in line with our constitutional requirements.

Therefore May could only get an extension by the HoC voting for it, and then her asking the EU to be valid in international law.

The reverse is true. The PM can not reverse the extension in international law without the permission of Parliament for it to technically be effective in international law without the risk of legal challenge.

Also in domestic law it is illegal to no deal without a vote in the HoC to allow it. Affirmative executive power to trigger no deal against that, would therefore also be illegal.

So if the issue is parliamentary paralysis then we can't no deal before Friday. Whether the executive want to or not.

The main root of out problem is that the only world superpower is decades ahead of us in the slide to fascism
and they are trying to spread the misery

John Major was a grey man and he sorted the GFA.
Grey man is deeply underestimated.

My prediction/hope.... revoke A50 then GE

Yep, @red I mean if the HoC voted for No Deal,
is there anything legally to stop it happening before the end of the extension ?

And suspect the queen will have to intervene to make that happen !

I think that you need a £5000 deposit to stand in Euro elections and £500 in a GE but haven’t time to check right now...making it v hard for any individual to stand for Euro Parl but less so for HoC.
Re the bit above about the legal void, I picked up Mort (Pratchett) for my train read and it describes a similar situation when Mort saves a princess from death but the rest of the world thinks she’s dead...I didn’t get as far as the resolution (and have forgotten it from previous readings) but it does involve an unhygienic wizard with poor eating habits. Oh and the not-dead princess hires said wizard to remind everyone that she’s still alive...

Corbyn is a prat. However, I can understand part of the tactic of give the Tories enough rope and they will hang themselves. Labour has misjudged how the Tories would rather hang the country than the party.

Couldnt agree more

And this morning I am left wondering whether any Westminstenders are understanding this anymore, cos I'm really not sure I do!

And we know this has been going right over the heads of all MPs for the last 3 years.

Who is in charge?

Answers on a postcard to Buckingham Palace. To beg.

Another Marched here, tired and achy but very pleased I went. Real world has hit hard this morning - all the housework and washing, ds homework dd gone down with a nasty virus and I've got an important letter to write! The joys of motherhood!

But thanks again Red and every single person who is trying to stop this car crash. It's heartwarming to "listen" to you here.

Yep, @red I mean if the HoC voted for No Deal,is there anything legally to stop it happening before the end of the extension ?

Parliament is sovereign.