Westminstenders: Pragmatism versus Purity

[RedToothBrush]

There is one question for the HoC in the next week and that's will you persue pragmatism or purity?

May looks as if she is being sidelined after a backbench withdrawal of support, the DUPs withdrawal of support and an omminous silence eminenating from the Cabinet.

Her speech on Thursday where she pitted the people against parliament has been her last mistake. She's now a danger to the country's stability and the safety of MPs.

The priority for the week is to pass the SI to change the UK exit date from 29th March to the EU's new terms.

After that, with May's deal stuffed due to lack of support and a Bercow ruling it looks like we are facing some sort of indicative free vote. This seems to be being supported by ministers in government regardless of leave or remain.

The prospect of a Tory Leader Election contest looms. It remains to seen if that can happen in the next three weeks with so much else at stake. But this is the Tory party.

The penny seems to be finally dropping about the reality of leaving the EU and how we leave the EU. A week before we were due to go. The incompetence of Parliament is laid bare in all its glorious full scale.

Agree with comparable mood to the last London March (ie not threatening at all, good humoured, chatty etc but subjectively the number of angry placards was definitely up

Re police/hecklers etc, there was in fact a small group of about 20-30 Leave means Leave types in yellow jackets (their gilets jaunes adorned with slogans in Sharpie!) lurking in Trafalgar Square, awaiting the oncoming marchers. The police had them contained from early on and I don’t think they were able to cause any trouble. But there were at least a dozen officers on the case, despite hardly any (apart from at Downing St) to be seen elsewhere.

As we were leaving Parliament Square after the speeches I caught the eye of a WPC and she gave me a conspiratorial wink and a sly thumbs-up

Pmk

Long time lurker here!

I was at the march yesterday with dh and our 4 dc, it was lovely, full of all different ages, lots of families, all very good-natured and peaceful.

The only "unrest" we experienced was when walking past Downing Street and lots of the crowd booed!

I was a little worried about taking my children but so glad I did, they feel proud to have been there and whatever happens I want them to know we did all the little things we could to try to make a difference.

Heseltine on LBC around 9.30 apparently

{10. One niggling thought... as we’re so ‘nice’, is it safer and easier to ignore us, rather than the smaller groups of loud-shouting aggressive types?}

No, it was 'spot on'.
The fact that it was massive and good natured will have encouraged many that matter, the leaders of the EU27, that the UK does not necessarily want 'out' of the EU. They are of course very aware of this already and having to deal with arsewipe Farage fairly regularly but more importantly see the significant influence of well balanced 'UK' engineers/technologists/citizens who integrate throughout Europe.
The EU 27 will already know about USA and Russian 'influence' and will have their own ideas about limiting it.
In many ways '27 heads are better than 1' (Zaphod would be envious!).

Sam Coates Times
@SamCoatesTimes
I’m told Boris Johnson, Dominic Raab and Jacob Rees Mogg are amongst a number of figures on an invite list to go to Chequers today...

Marchers are quite naturally feeling deflated. Think of the Adrenalin that had you all so excited and happy yesterday. It’s all drained away now.

The ERG might go a bit mental and try and trigger a GE though. So Labour Jezzabetter not be absolute tools and encourage it. They will. It's all they're, or at least JC, interested in. Ironic seeing as they'd have no hope of winning one.

I am feeling a bit deflated too - what next. Will the ERG wreckers have their way, yet again?

Good luck Chevvy!

I thanked a police officer for looking after us at the end of the march, he thanked me for coming along. It was all Very British

DH went yesterday and bumped into an old uni housemate so was very happy :)
I've seen on Instagram one of my old housemates went as well.
We used to go a lot of marches etc back in the day and it was nice to see that our friends still care about stuff...even though they are older and have jobs, dc etc.
I think some people expect you to not have any ideals anymore once you have a bit of responsibility.... But I think its the opposite really.

Thank you to everyone who went

Looks like it’s bye bye, Brexit!

Far from it.

If May will only relinquish power to Liddington then there's something of a problem.

See this
I’m told Boris Johnson, Dominic Raab and Jacob Rees Mogg are amongst a number of figures on an invite list to go to Chequers today...

The ERG will not want to relinquish the leadership, even if its temporary, to someone they see as a Remainer. Simply because they see that as surrendering and giving up on Brexit.

This presents something of a problem.

Of Tory Party Split proportions.

And a split like that results in a GE. Unless Liddington can secure an emergency cross bench government of some sort.

But the Tory Party would split in the process.

However I suspect the oppose is also true. If the ERG seize control of the Premiership or a policy of No Deal is decided on, then Remainers and many of the silent moderates will revolt and I suspect leave the party.

What is going on today is a decision over whether the Tory party decides to persue ideological purity and split, pursue pragmatism and split or pursue pragmatism and stay together.

The last option strikes me as the last likely.

The only alternative perhaps would be to pursue the WA as it is. What I fear about this route is it would be Liddington in the short-term and then perhaps an agreement for an ERG leaning prime minister after 22 May so that they could pursue the trade arrangements they wished. I'm not sure it would satisfy all 'Wet-Tories' but it might well be enough for a significant number. It might have the effect of limiting a split.

If this is the plan, it might alarm the opposition benches with good reason. It might also upset enough Tory moderates who will jump ship to the opposition benches and trigger a no confidence in the government (and I suspect have the numbers to do this). But this would not occur until after 22 May. The point of the timing would be to prevent no deal but to try and get control of post Brexit Trade negotiations so we don't have the hard right in control. Trouble is I don't see even a coalition of the opposition winning enough seats to beat the Tories.

And this is precisely why this option might be the one that comes to pass...

I am worried.

Over the past couple of years I have been feeling increasingly embarrassed about the UK in the eyes of the world. We have a lot of European friends, who are sympathetic but exasperated by the UK's (public) attitude to the EU. I've got very fed up of having to apologise for our government's actions and having to insist that we're not (all) like that and deep down we really haven't changed from the tolerant and pragmatic types we've always been.

Unfortunately, with an unleavened diet of Farage, Mogg, Davis and countless other arrogant idiots claiming to speak for us in our international dealings, I'd begun to doubt this myself. Yesterday went a long way to reassuring me that we Brits really are polite, kind and sensible people, who don't like extremism and are very happy to rub along with each other (literally during the more concentrated bits of the march!). At our best, we are creative, humorous and considerate; Jo Cox was indeed right: we have more that connects us than separates us and yesterday's events have helped to encourage me that this is all worth emphasising.

For the first time for quite a while, I actually felt very fond of my fellow Brits. I know there are plenty of idiots among us and we've made a sad mess of running the country for many years, but deep down we really are nice people. Thanks to all who marched to show this to the world - and to ourselves.

I just got someone to sign the petition from Nepal:)

Hell, I might even apply to be a candidate myself.

Born you should!

Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
NEW: Chancellor Hammond on Second Referendum: “I’m not sure there’s a majority for it in the House, but it’s a perfectly coherent proposition that deserves to be considered on the list [of options]” #ridge

67chevvyimpala
I enjoyed looking at the website that lists the number of votes by country. It was linked by someone the evening before last, I forget it now.
There was 1 from Lesotho, 1 from Djibouti and 1 from Eritrea and low numbers from all across the world. Basically Brits get everywhere!

Sky news breaking @ skynewsbreak
Chancellor Philip Hammond has told Sky News "changing Prime Minister wouldn't help us" after The Sunday Times reported that 11 Cabinet ministers want Theresa May to resign as Prime Minister and they plan to confront her at tomorrow's Cabinet meeting

Faisal Islam@faisalislam
* Chancellor did NOT rule out second referendum from The #ridge board of options for the nation...but did both revoke and No Deal.

This is ultimately the issue.

Get rid if May and you might end up with more problems than we already have.

From a soft Brexit / remain POV, I'd argue that May going makes no deal or a very hard post Brexit climate for trade agreements and attempts to break the backstop as more likely.

There is an option of May staying but Liddington being the puppet I guess. But I fear the effect might be the same anyway.

The fragility of the government rests with the possibility of a no confidence vote.

I wonder if we might see one... With an amendment.

That the government continues in power until May 22 to prevent no deal and THEN parliament dissolved and we go into a GE period.

Which would be flaming ridiculous. But both Labour and the ERG might well go for it. If the amendment didn't pass then Labour could end up voting in confidence for the government with an excuse to do so. If the amendment did pass then there would be a GE and the ERG would seek to take control that way gambling that they would win a GE and then have an election leadership with everything to play for.

Ironically this would all require the WA to pass too. Possibly in its current form. But perhaps with the intent of soft Brexit phrased in a way which isn't internationally binding in law but is domestically - remembering this can be later overturned by another government for a harder version of Brexit.

sigh

This is such a mind fuck. Its hard to follow anything anymore.

Sonia Sodha @ soniasodha
. @CarolineLucas talking sense on #Ridge right now; TM stepping down will achieve nothing apart from making an awful political crisis even worse

I actually see No Deal as having increased in probability as I can't see Parliament getting its act together quickly enough to put in place the required SIs (by 29 March actually needed earlier than that ) and legislate for the EP elections or pass the WA by 12 April.

So it's cliff edge this Friday or 2 weeks on Friday

A change of leader and/or a GE still requires those things to be done Can the headbangers Parliament not see that?

Can independents stand in the MEP elections or do they need to be a member of a political party ?

This is the very definition of constitutional crisis.

Every action looks likes it will make the situation worse no better.

It not only makes no deal more likely; it makes no deal with no clear chain of command more likely.

That's worse than no deal.

I think the d'Hondt system makes it almost impossible for independents to get elected, especially in a country where there is a strong albeit broken party system . But happy to be contradicted

So it's cliff edge this Friday or 2 weeks on Friday

No its not a cliff edge this Friday.

The effect of May accepting the extension under international law is we will still be members of the EU on Saturday whatever happens. We won't be a 3rd Party to the EU so trading arrangements stay in place.

However if the SI fails to pass before Friday's deadline we have a different problem.

UK law will be out of step with international law. Our law will say we have left when we haven't. This will be a legal void in which we have confusion and no one really knowing what the law is.

This is an entirely preventable scenario and is very easy to resolve with the passing of the SI which should have a very comfortable commons majority.

The problem is we no longer have a function PM or government to ensure that the SI is definitely tabled. Hence why we are even discussing the possibility of an easily passable amendment to law to prevent an obvious crisis being something that may not happen.

As I say. Constitutional crisis.