Out of interest, if you voted leave what do you do for a living?

[Shookethtothecore]

I promise I won’t ask you anymore questions or it turn into a slanging match, you are untitled to your opinion.
I don’t know anyone of my friends who voted leave, the odd acquaintance who voted leave “because they didn’t really understand” but the people I am friendly with all seem to be remianers. We are in our 30s and to teaching, sales and banking type jobs. Dh is a solicitor and all do law in one form.
I was wondering if certain sectors voted leave generally and if what you did for a living influenced your leave vote, and if you could possibly explain why the leave vote would benefit your sector. I am not here to judge at all just trying to understand

From a letter sent from the PSNC to Sarah Wollaston:

Last month, the number of price concessions jumped up to 72 and the number in December 2018 is likely to be higher. The surge may be due to a combination of factors including Brexit planning and contingency; stockpiling...

Brexit: further contingency measures

You will know that the Government has asked the manufacturers of prescription medicines to hold an additional six-week stockholding of medicines in the UK, but there are question marks as to whether this will be enough to provide continuity of supply to patients.

In addition to this stockpile, there will need to be processes in place to help community pharmacies and other healthcare providers to work together to manage any shortages that do occur. Community pharmacists and GPs in particular will need to work together with clear guidance on the steps to follow in the event of a drug shortage. There will also need to be flexibility in the regulatory, contractual and reimbursement structures...

However, while community pharmacies will continue to do all that they can to manage the supply of medicines to patients, there must be recognition of the impact that this will have on their businesses, particularly in a crisis scenario.

We would like the Government to commit to protecting pharmacies where they are required to invest significant amounts of extra time sourcing and managing stocks, or where they incur significant financial costs as a result of medicines price increases. Safeguarding pharmacies in this way will be an important step to ensure that in a time of crisis, patient safety and medicines supply can be maintained, and pressure on other healthcare providers is not unduly increased.

The only leave voters I know are:

• A TA
• Long term unemployed
• Architect and his SAHW
• Restaurant owner (who admits he is now very worried about staffing his already close to failing business)
• Estate agent
• Cashier at Morrison's
• Mortgage broker

The majority of my friends voted to remain.

Pharmacists are reporting unprecedented shortages. Which you might know if your information didn’t derive from your mates.

Or I could just ask them where to look for the price concession list - the current one is here;

psnc.org.uk/our-news/march-2019-price-concessions-2nd-update/

54 drugs appear to be on the list at the moment - I'm not sure if they are going to add any more to the March list - probably.

unprecedented shortages

That's not actually correct because the PSNC letter to Sarah Wollaston you are quoting also says this;

Medicines shortages are not a new phenomenon, and community pharmacies already spend a lot of time trying to source medicines for their patients and managing any shortages when they do occur.

^The number of products on concession has grown in recent years and pharmacies are spending longer trying to source medicines at or below Drug Tariff price. Following major shortages in the generics market in 2017, the number of concessions being granted each month has slowly decreased (53 in April 2018 as compared to
109 in November 2017).^

Last month, the number of price concessions jumped up to 72 and the number in December 2018 is likely to be higher.The surge may be due to a combination of factors including Brexit planning and contingency; stockpiling; the reduction in Category M prices to recover overpaid margin from previous years; and DHSC using its new data gathering powers to identify stock levels and manufacturer selling out prices to determine concessionary prices.

Obviously Brexit is causing a major headache - but a lot of effort has been put into contingency planning for medicines - pharmacists have been told not to stockpile.

and the result is the Nuffield Trust reports that the NHS faces extra annual cost shock’ of up to £2.3 billion by the end of 2019-20 as a result of No Deal.

I found that report as well;

www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/news-item/how-much-would-nhs-costs-rise-if-there-s-no-brexit-deal#a-tough-pill-to-swallow

The figures are a guesstimate by one analyst, making various assumptions which may turn out to be completely wrong;

I used the government’s estimate that “non-tariff barriers” would add the equivalent of 6.1% in costs in the “machines, equipment and energy” sector.

An additional cost would be the impact of the devaluation of sterling. In line with estimates from banks, I assumed the pound would fall to be worth the same as the euro, raising costs by 14%.

Estimates that a no deal Brexit would result in inflation across all supplies rising to 3.2% next year, instead of 1.9%.

Does anyone remember the doomsday feeling towards the countdown to the end of 1999? And then nothing happened. The clocks just ticked on.

@gibble no I was 15. Well I remember it but not fully getting it. I think this is different slightly as it’s made the country so divided and nasty, I hate it. I don’t understand the economics of it all fully, but it will be what it will be, but I think the vibe of the UK has changed and I don’t like it. I think we all need to pull together now, I don’t like the racist undertones some people have latched into with Brexit and The absolute mess the government has made of it all beggars belief. So I think it’s different from the 1999 thing because it’s already started to go south, the uk has changed in the past 2 years and not for the better

Ooo we haven't had millennium bug mentions for ages.
That was a nothingburger in the end because of a lot of hard work and advance planning. Which is the opposite of now. But don't let that spoil your delusion.

Is being told not to stockpile the equivalent of being told not to panic buy petrol when we had those fuel crises a while back? I seem to remember huge queues at petrol stations and many running out of fuel.

If the UK are big buyers of pharmaceutical drugs then surely the companies will want to sell their products. If necessary by routing the product through a country we can trade with. We hear about globalisation and multi national companies surely it is in their interests to sell to the UK.

Or I could just ask them where to look for the price concession list - the current one is here

The list on its own doesn’t give the whole picture (and it fluctuates - it was 80 earlier this year.)

That's not actually correct because the PSNC letter to Sarah Wollaston you are quoting also says this.

It is correct.

In January, the Royal Pharmaceutical Society reported ‘a massive shortage and price spikes’ and Brexit is a major factor.

I have never said that shortages and price concessions are new. But since Brexit they have been continually rising and the problems are more acute than usual.

Experts have warned that No Deal preparations - including stockpiling by pharmaceutical companies, pharmacies and patients, are pushing up prices.

A BBC report found that the number of medications on the list has grown six-fold in three years.

Pharmacists and GPs are reporting difficulty getting hold of some drugs that they have not previously experienced.

LMCs were warned that ‘Drug shortages [were] exacerbated by patients stockpiling ahead of Brexit’ and ‘that the list of unavailable medicines was ‘extensive and growing continuously’.

Shortages force GPs to switch prescriptions, to the detriment of the patient in some cases, and the sharp increase is driving up GPs’ workload.

Obviously Brexit is causing a major headache - but a lot of effort has been put into contingency planning for medicines - pharmacists have been told not to stockpile.

A ‘headache’ - seriously? As I’ve said some types of medicines can’t be stockpiled and storage facilities would be needed that doesn’t exist. Secondly, pharmacists are stockpiling nonetheless, and patients are doing so too, as above.

The figures are a guesstimate by one analyst, making various assumptions which may turn out to be completely wrong

This is the standard Brexit excuse applied across the board that as figures cannot 100% certain they can be denied. The true cost may be even higher.

Two retired people i know voted leave because the EU is ‘satanic’
And ‘too many people getting something for nothing’

TatianaLarina
The list on its own doesn’t give the whole picture (and it fluctuates - it was 80 earlier this year.)

Yes, I know it fluctuates - which is why I referred to the March price concessions list. I also quoted from the PSNC's letter to Sarah Wollaston which stated that the number of drugs on the concessions list was 109 in November 2017, 53 in April 2018 and 72 in November 2018.The number of drugs on the revised list for March 2019 currently stands at 54 - but that could be revised upwards.

A BBC report found that the number of medications on the list has grown six-fold in three years.

Link to the BBC report (Jan 2019) that you are referring to;
www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-46843631

If you actually scroll right down;

What do drug companies say?

Warwick Smith, director general of the British Generic Manufacturers Association, says stock levels can fluctuate.
He prefers to call it a "tightening of supply" rather than a shortage.
"It's normal for levels of availability to increase and decrease, which impacts prices," he adds.

The government stresses that two million prescription items are dispensed in England every day, and the vast majority of medicines are not in short supply.

Why is this happening?

Industry figures all stress that there is no single, neat answer to explain such a complicated situation.

Suggestions for reasons behind the shortage include:
◾increased global demand
◾cost of raw materials
◾new regulatory requirements driving up costs
◾fluctuations in exchange rates
◾generic companies being unwilling to carry on selling unprofitable products.

Another possible explanation is that the NHS has done too good a job of driving down the prices it will pay for drugs.

The PSNC says this makes the UK a less attractive market for manufacturers.

Has Brexit had an impact?

Medicine shortages were at their worst in 2017, and although recent figures show the issue could return to that level again, one expert says Brexit is "not a factor".

Former Liberal Democrat MP Sandra Gidley, a pharmacist and chairwoman of the English Pharmacy Board at the Royal Pharmaceutical Society;

Potential supply problems because of Brexit have led to manufactures being asked to keep a "buffer stock", Ms Gidley told BBC Radio 4's Today programme.

"Unfortunately what's been happening on social media over Christmas is that people have been… assuming this is because of Brexit.There are global issues at play here."

A Department of Health and Social Care spokesperson said: "We have not seen any evidence of current medicine supply issues linked to EU exit preparations."

The Royal Pharmaceutical Society in Scotland said the issue was a permanent feature of pharmacy life and can happen for a variety of reasons.

We know that supplies and prices fluctuate, but the fact is that it’s reported across the board that preparations for No Deal Brexit are having a detrimental impact on both.

From the same article you quote:

The government has told manufacturers of both branded and generic drugs to stockpile six weeks' worth of supplies, so that people would still get their medications if we have a no-deal Brexit.

Of course - 6 weeks won’t cut it from No Deal and everyone knows that hence personal stockpiling.

Hospitals, distributors and patients have been told not to stockpile their own supplies.

Which of course they all are as they know the government is untrustworthy.

Potential supply problems because of Brexit have led to manufactures being asked to keep a "buffer stock", Ms Gidley told BBC Radio 4's Today programme.

Quite.

I don’t know how many Leavers I’ve encountered over the last 3 years totally in denial of the problems that Brexit has created: the hit to the economy, to the pound, businesses leaving, scientific and medical research impacted, university funding hit, the effect of decreased EU migrants on the NHS, on hospitality etc. The response is denial, denial, denial until it all actually happens and then they slowly slink away.

Meanwhile, as I mentioned before, the chief of a Birmingham Foundation NHS Trust, Dr David Rosser commented:

’In the event of a chaotic, no-deal exit, many NHS trusts could quickly run out of vital medical supplies’.

link

The article states:

that he could not envision any scenario whereby a no-deal Brexit does not significantly affect patient safety.

Even if there were central stockpiling, shortages would likely occur due to ‘unprecedented’ distribution challenges.

’In terms of the potential for major operational impact and severe and widespread risks to patient safety, by far the greatest concern is the availability of medicines, devices and clinical supplies.’

A significant proportion of the medicines used at UHB on a daily basis could be at risk, he added.

The article also notes that Rosser claimed that:

While the Department of Health and Social Care had identified potential supply shortcomings, these findings had not been shared with trusts

It should also be noted that the government served NDAs - ie gagging orders on 26 pharmaceutical organisations working with Whitehall to maintain medical supplies in the event of No Deal.

I voted remain. Most of the leavers I know are at work, most of them are managers in the civil service. I also know some business owners who voted leave. I don't know any 'working class' leavers at all. All the poorer people I know voted remain.

As mentioned previously, NHS leaders warned the government at a select committee in January, that ‘No Deal’ would be a ‘disaster’ for the NHS.

In addition to availability of key supplies, they warned of price increases, workforce issues and extra funding for the NHS in jeopardy.

Chief exec of the NHS and head of Brexit Health Alliance said:

‘There is no doubt in our minds from every quarter that ‘no deal’ is a real disaster – certainly in the short to medium term’.

‘Obviously a lot of people have talked about the supply chain issue – we have never had a situation where supply chains are disrupted for possibly up to say six months... I think this would be really serious indeed.’

TatianaLarina
Hospitals, distributors and patients have been told not to stockpile their own supplies.
Which of course they all are as they know the government is untrustworthy.

Hopefully your dh and his colleagues are not planning to jeopardise the government's contingency plans (or contribute to drug shortages now) - that would be detrimental to everyone.

Department of Health and Social Care Update : Written statement
25 February 2019 Stephen Hammond (Minister of State for Health)

Today, I am updating the House on the Department for Health and Social Care’s plans for the continuity of medicines and medical products in the event we exit the EU without a deal.

Contingency plans here;
www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2019-02-25/HCWS1358/

Local stockpiling is unnecessary and could cause shortages in other areas, which could put patient care at risk.

It is important that patients order their repeat prescriptions as normal and keep taking their medicines as normal.

While we never give guarantees, we are confident that, if everyone – including suppliers, freight companies, international partners and the health and care system–does what they need to do, the supply of medicines and medical products should be uninterrupted in the event of exiting the EU without a deal.

You - As mentioned previously, NHS leaders warned the government at a select committee in January, that ‘No Deal’ would be a ‘disaster’ for the NHS.

The contingency plans were published in February - no doubt the government listened to any advice given, to help them formulate their plans.

E.g. Securing, via the Department of Transport (DfT), additional roll on, roll off freight capacity (away from the short straits) from 29 March.

Contracts have been signed by DfT with two ferry companies for the next six months

These routes are away from the Dover Straits where most goods flow from the EU and will run from the following routes: Cherbourg–Poole, Le Havre–Portsmouth, Roscoff- Plymouth, Caen–Portsmouth, Vlaardingen–Immingham, Cuxhaven- Immingham and Vlaardingen–Felixstowe.The Government has purchased the tickets from the shipping freight operators, and these will be sold on at market rate.

25 FEB The government has created a logistics hub in Belgium where vital medical supplies will be stockpiled to stop the NHS running short of equipment if there is a no-deal Brexit.
Drugs and other medical supplies to be shipped over on seven new ferry routes

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/25/hub-in-belgium-to-keep-nhs-supplied-in-event-of-no-deal-brexit

You - Of course-6 weeks won’t cut it from No Deal and everyone knows that hence personal stockpiling.

If you’re a pharmaceutical company supplying the UK with medicines from, or via, the EU or European Economic Area (EEA), you should make sure you have a minimum of 6 weeks’ additional supply in the UK, over and above your business as usual operational buffer stocks by 12 April 2019. That would be on a continuous basis until further notice.

I have never said that shortages and price concessions are new. But since Brexit they have been continually rising and the problems are more acute than usual.

Not because of Brexit though;

Nov 2018 It's a recurring issue in France, and it’s a worrying one - medicine shortages

^Whether at the chemists’ or in hospitals, it's becoming increasingly difficult for people to find the medication they’ve been prescribed.
Last year, shortage warnings were sounded 530 times across France, the highest ever in a year.

www.france24.com/en/20181127-focus-france-shortage-medication-prescription-cancer-neurological-patients-affected

July 2018-Switzerland

The supply of vital medicines in Switzerland has been undercut in the last two years by a series of global accidents and events.These include a recent fire at a production plant in China, as well as Hurricane Earl in Puerto Rico in 2016.

The head of the Interlaken pharmacy chain which supplies Swiss hospitals, told Swiss daily Blick that at least 388 medications are currently in short supply in Switzerland.These include ibuprofen tablets–standard painkillers–the heart medication Aspirin Cardio or the asthma spray Ventolin.

The shortfall of medicines has now leapt to over 400.

"Following the withdrawal of some valsartan supplements, the number of non-deliverable medicines in Switzerland jumps to 402.

Such high shortages are a "record,"- although the problem is not new.The situation will not get better soon either.

www.thelocal.ch/20180718/shortage-of-more-than-400-key-medications-in-switzerland-increases-calls-for-more-domestic-stockpiles

Jan 2018 Last year ‘worst ever’ for NHS medicines shortages

Last year was one of the worst years for medicines shortages for NHS patients, and the situation is unlikely to improve, a senior health service figure has said.

The Medicines for Europe conference heard that shortages of previously abundant generic drugs is an issue throughout the continent.

A perfect storm of pricing pressures, increasing costs, and procurement policy is causing issues across the EU, with countries such as Portugal, Romania and Estonia the worst hit.

The regional pharmacy procurement specialist at NHS Commercial Solutions, said the UK issues had been caused by an industry-led legal challenge to the health service’s procurement of drugs.

pharmaphorum.com/news/last-year-worst-ever-nhs-medicines-shortages-expert/

Cardiologist - voted leave and says we should have courage.
Beautician - has since changed her mind !
Retired Nurse remembers Uk before EU
20 year old NHS admin worker
I voted to remain for stability over the next ten years.

DP senior civil servant and voted leave. I didn't and was surprised at him!

Also a Secondary school teacher voted leave and said to me “but isn’t this exciting”.

TatianaLarina

The government has told manufacturers of both branded and generic drugs to stockpile six weeks' worth of supplies, so that people would still get their medications if we have a no-deal Brexit.

Of course-6 weeks won’t cut it from No Deal and everyone knows that hence personal stockpiling.

Surely, you're not suggesting that the UK will be under siege if there is a No-Deal? That is ridiculous scaremongering.

Brexit or no Brexit, Deal or No-Deal - trade will continue with the EU - medicines and medical supplies will be arriving on a daily basis.

In brief, a Brexit poem by Clavinova (apologies to Baldrick):

Denial denial denial denial
Denial denial denial...

You don’t have even the remotest grasp of No Deal.

TatianaLarina

Press Release

Novo Nordisk UK strengthens no-deal Brexit plans
Gatwick, January 17 2019
www.novonordisk.co.uk/media/news-2019.html

As the biggest insulin supplier in the UK and with 95 years of innovation in diabetes care, Novo Nordisk is committed to ensuring patients’ medicine supply is unaffected in the event of a ‘no-deal’ Brexit.

Novo Nordisk has planned for all future ‘no-deal’ contingencies.

Our preparations include doubling UK stock to 16 weeks (around 4 months), which will be in place by the end of January.

^We will continue to build stock ahead of 29 March when we expect to have around two and a half times our normal stock levels (roughly 18 weeks).

This significant increase builds on Novo Nordisk’s already robust plans for a ‘no deal’ scenario.

To further safeguard against potential border delays we have also secured pre-bookings of airfreight to bring essential medicines into the UK. We have scheduled monthly airfreight slots between April and July 2019 to ensure supply isn’t affected.

Pinder Sahota,Corporate Vice President of Novo Nordisk UK said, “Our first commitment is to ensure that patients treated with our medicines remain unaffected in the event of a ‘no-deal’ Brexit.

We believe our no-deal Brexit preparations are robust and we have taken all necessary steps to ensure continuity of supply to the UK patients we serve.

www.cips.org/en-GB/supply-management/news/2018/august/brexit-medicine-shortage-worries-unfounded-says-nhs/

Concerns over a medical supply shortage in the case of a no deal Brexit are no more than “scaremongering,” an NHS procurement head has said.

procurement director for NHS South of England, told SM the health service regularly stockpiles drugs and medical equipment, and that rumours that the UK will not be able to access “critical products” are unfounded.

The NHS has faced raw material shortages and epidemics before, such as during the 2009 swine flu outbreak, for which products were “stocked ahead to ensure the supply chain was secure,” he said.

“It's not anything new, it's part of what we do as a profession,” he added. “That doesn't mean that we won’t build stocks of certain products, [but] the country is already equipped for it.”

Hoskins, who is also chief officer of Health Care Supply Association, said there was plenty of capacity in terms of warehouses and other spaces: “It is just about turning on some of that space as required and using it.”

“It's very much scaremongering and I don't think it will have anywhere near the effect that people think it will,” he said.

Getting back on topic, I've just discovered another of my acquaintances/ex work colleagues voted to leave. She is a barrister.

Anyway I think this thread dispels the myth that it was an "elite" who voted to remain.