How likely is it that we will crash out with no deal in nine days time?

[ncagain222]

Just that really. Do we think Theresa May will be able to secure a short extension from the EU and if she can’t, does that mean we’ll be crashing out with no deal in just nine days time?

I really hope she'll be going for a long delay, 3 month extension won't change anything. I think eu countries will be willing to avoid no deal.

No chance we'll crash out without a deal. The EU don't want that.

TM is only going to ask for three months' extension, according to the Guardian.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/20/brexit-theresa-may-to-ask-for-three-month-delay-to-article-50

It’s a roll of the dice at the moment, isn’t it. Wouldn’t like to place a bet.

Very unlikely we will crash out on 29 March, but looks like it will go to the wire. There is a bigger risk of crashing out at the end of June if we get a short extension but still can't decide what to do next.

@EnlightenmentwasaPassingPhase - No chance we'll crash out without a deal. The EU don't want that.

No, they don't want a no deal. However, at this stage, they are getting pissed off with the UK. An extension needs to have a reason and, other than continue pissing about, there doesn't appear to be a reason being offered.

Preparations for no deal are being accelerated in the rest of the EU. Listening to statements from our government (Irish), while we want to help the UK out of this mess (obviously with the caveat of not agreeing to anything that would put the GFA at risk), the UK have no idea what they want so, rather than prolonging the pain, it might be better just to rip the plaster off now and let you crash out.

The last thing the EU want or need is the UK taking part in EU elections (obviously different if A50 has been revoked).

We won't crash out with no deal but she's taken a very very dangerous path if indeed it's true she's only sought a three month extension, because I think the eu May reject it if it's based on her getting her twice rejected deal through, next week, with no further changes, that's highly unlikely. She doesn't have the dup and the votes. They may have to force her to take a longer one.

If it's true she's ignored the will of parliament, she's went against her own commitment and her own motion.

One of the MPs has now requested an emergancy debate on it. From what I can gether she is now acting autocratically and ignoring the will of parliament, and I think if this is the case, she will be taken out of power very very quickly.

I suspect she can't be this stupid. So I am wondering if she's playing smart, go for the short one, take it back to parliament, and if her deal fails a third time, ask for a long extension at the last minute. And she's doing it because she is facing resignations from her cabinet from the likes of ledstrom, and because she is desperate to get her deal through.

If it fails though and she goes for the longer extension ultimately she will likely resign.

Whichever way you cut it, she's now playing a very very dangerous game and it's really unacceptable.

very unlikely.

I think she's only going to ask for a short extension. Yes I think we will crash out. The EU are fed up of us and we're really not that important to them. The whole situation is ridiculous. The people should be allowed to vote again with the full information this time, not the lies we were told last time. If the decision is still leave they should then start preparing properly. How could they let us have a referendum in the first place without a plan of how it was going to end of the decision was leave? What have they been doing for all this time?

Presumably we could get a two year 'extension' by revoking then immediately invoking Article 50 again. I shudder to think how pissed off the EU would be though.

She's asking for a 3 month extension and no longer apparently.
The WA will pass.
Panic over

The WA will pass.

Is someone reporting that? Or do you mean that's just what you think?

Just what I think. Believe the ERG and DUP will toe the line and with a few Lab rebels it'll go through. With a whimper rather than a roar.

Apparently Lab have said they won't support a long extension either.

The EU will be Noel Edmund on 29th March. "What's it going to be.... Deal ....or No deal...."

I think it's highly unlikely the EU will agree to a short extension without a concrete plan and a signed and sealed WA, and without an agreed extension I think it's unlikely Bercow will agree that the context is sufficiently changed to allow MV3 (though perhaps he will think being literally on the eve of Brexiting with no deal is a sufficient contextual change, who can say?). If we do get MV3, I hope it will include the Kyle amendment for a confirmatory referendum, and either way the house will be too divided for it to pass imo.

So the options then shrink to long extension, revoke or crash out. I am not quite sure why Andrea Leadsom has pushed herself forward as the sole arbiter of whether a long extension and holding European elections is acceptable to the British people and question whether she's correct in that view, but suspect it will hold the day regardless.

So that leaves revoke (which would be marvellous in my view, but is unlikely in all honesty) and no deal. So in my opinion a catastrophic crash out is the most likely scenario by some margin. That said, Tony Blair said yesterday that no deal was so unlikely as not even to be worth worrying about: no one wants it, not May, not parliament and certainly not the EU. Tony Blair is not my cup of tea, but nevertheless, he's extremely knowledgeable, and in particular is one of the few politicians to have a really thorough grasp of the issues surrounding Northern Ireland, so I give his view some credence.

In short, OP, no one has a fucking clue!

More chance of me being made PM and sorting this shitshow out.

The EU are fed up of us and we're really not that important to them

Actually we are that important to them, we are the fifth largest economy in the world and they sell us billions of pounds worth of products and services, we contribute a huge amount and we have millions of eu citizens living here. Ultimately they wish us to stay and they really don't want no deal as it is so damaging to many countries.

However there is no doubt we are behaving terribly. There is no consensus on path forward and it seems we now have a pm acting against the will of parliament and acting as an autocrat.

I can't imagine how difficult this is for thr eu, to watch this unfold, they also have a lot at stake. I'm also unsure if the eu will approve this short extension, because she's basing it on getting her deal approved next week and that's unlikely.

Friend, I suspect the DUP are too stubborn, although admittedly if another bung is on the table they might go for that. The ERG too – none of them care about no-deal consequences; in fact they'd welcome them.

Maybe if we stay in Tony Blair will finally realise his dream of becoming EU president.

I'm 99.9% certain we won't crash out though.

Actually we are that important to them, we are the fifth largest economy in the world and they sell us billions of pounds worth of products and services, we contribute a huge amount and we have millions of eu citizens living here. Ultimately they wish us to stay and they really don't want no deal as it is so damaging to many countries.

Oh yawn, the UK is the sixth (actually) largest economy in the world largely because of its membership of the EU. It is true that a no deal crash out will tank both the EU and the global economy, which obviously will threaten the EU's stability and is of great concern to the EC. Balancing that, the UK has become a bad actor as far as the EU is concerned - on top of decades of destabilising exceptionalism, we have latterly behaved erratically and dishonourably, and the EU no longer trusts us not to take the wheels off if we play any further part in their business. I think there was a time when they had a genuine concern for steering us away from political and economic national suicide, and, for instance, a change of direction towards a EEA-type deal would have been entertained however time-consuming. As recently as a fortnight ago, I think an offer of a long extension, or an extension for the purposes of a referendum in the hope that we might remain after all, might have been on the cards, but the incredible spectacle of May trying to drive her unchanged deal home a second and third time, and the complete meltdown that has ensued has changed all that. I think they think we need a long spell in the wilderness to reflect on our behaviour, and sadly I think they're probably right.

I'd love to be wrong though.

No idea
I don’t think May will revoke so it’ll take something else to avoid crashing out

I live in Ireland and in our office we're currently going through the list of 27 EU countries and wondering which one will veto the extension and why!

I think the extension will happen. But does that just mean a no deal Brexit at the end of June? I don't want that, but I guess there are some advantages:

Not at "hungry gap" time.

More time to stockpile.

More time to come up with a plan for no deal
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GCSE and A level exams are over

Downside - I booked my holiday for the first week of July though it's not in the EU.

No deal doesn't solve the Irish border issue and I think that is key here.

But we really do have a bunch of politicians with no sense of decency responsibility or ability to compromise.

The last thing the EU want or need is the UK taking part in EU elections (obviously different if A50 has been revoked).

I've seen this said elsewhere but I'm not sure why? Is it a cost thing? I'd have thought it might be a good chance for Remainers to come out in force and actually elect some pro-EU MEPs, it feels like half the problem we've had is that our representation there is so poor so no positive messages return to the UK.

I think we will crash out at some point. WA doesn't prevent that and the government / parliament can't agree on anything. Fucking criminal.

Short extension with no reason behind it means we can't revoke and No Deal is more likely? Happy to be corrected.