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Brexit

How likely is it that we will crash out with no deal in nine days time?

121 replies

ncagain222 · 20/03/2019 07:16

Just that really. Do we think Theresa May will be able to secure a short extension from the EU and if she can’t, does that mean we’ll be crashing out with no deal in just nine days time?

OP posts:
havingtochangeusernameagain · 20/03/2019 11:32

the UK has become a bad actor as far as the EU is concerned - on top of decades of destabilising exceptionalism

actually this really isn't true. The UK has a very good record of complying with EU laws. The reason we moan about them is because we comply - in fact goldplate them in a lot of cases. Some of other other countries say yes ok and then ignore (and end up with infraction proceedings against them). It's always been fashionable to say the UK aren't good Europeans but as ever, it is a lot more nuanced than that.

MrsTerryPratchett · 20/03/2019 11:32

I don't want that, but I guess there are some advantages

People don't riot in cold weather but they might in June Sad

Kaboodler · 20/03/2019 11:34

May is primarily concerned about appeasing the ERG headbangers in her party. We're being ruled by a witless autocrat so who the fuck knows what will happen now.

It is a full blown crisis that's reaching boiling point. And we're the ones in the pot.

Seniorschoolmum · 20/03/2019 11:35

Most telling - I don’t think Andrea Merkel is keen on that option. So probably not

Seniorschoolmum · 20/03/2019 11:37

Angela

tobee · 20/03/2019 11:38

Lots of people said before the referendum it was very unlikely that leave would win.

At every single turn May has done the thing that appeases the ERG. Every single time she has put party ahead of country. Unbelievable behaviour.

DanglyBangly · 20/03/2019 11:40

I just don’t know what May can sensibly do. She’s thwarted at every turn by people saying what they don’t want (her deal, no deal, a third MV, a long extension) but without offering an alternative.

MrsTerryPratchett · 20/03/2019 11:41

I just don’t know what May can sensibly do.

Well that's why I wouldn't have taken her job. It is impossible to deliver a fiscally responsible, politically legal, popular result here.

billysboy · 20/03/2019 11:43

TM couldnt make a decision if her life depended on it , however the alternative cabinet following the snowflake vote of Corbyn and Abbot is far more scary

doIreallyneedto · 20/03/2019 11:52

@MsJuniper - I've seen this said elsewhere but I'm not sure why? Is it a cost thing? I'd have thought it might be a good chance for Remainers to come out in force and actually elect some pro-EU MEPs, it feels like half the problem we've had is that our representation there is so poor so no positive messages return to the UK.

There are a number of reasons but I think the main reasons are:

  1. how to deal with the reallocated seats. The UK seats have been allocated to other countries so if the UK contest the elections but will potentially leave during the course of the parliament sitting, how do you deal with it? Do you allow the countries with the extra seats elect extra MEPs but not allow them to take their seats until the UK ones are gone? Do you hold additional elections after the UK has left, thus forcing those countries to incur that extra cost?
  1. If, for some reason, it's decided that the UP shouldn't elect MEPs then what happens if revoke happens or the extension goes on beyond the date for the new parliament? If the UK don't elect MEPs, it has been suggested that the current sitting ones would continue in place until the extension ends and Brexit happens but that is still difficult, given point 1 above. It would also allow UK MEPs to vote for the president and potentially leave shortly afterwards.

Have a look at this It goes through some of the problems. It's a politico.eu link.

havingtochangeusernameagain · 20/03/2019 11:58

People don't riot in cold weather but they might in June

Oh gosh I hadn't thought of that. You are right, of course.

MattFreisWeatherReport · 20/03/2019 12:03

[The last thing the EU want or need is the UK taking part in EU elections (obviously different if A50 has been revoked).]

I've seen this said elsewhere but I'm not sure why? Is it a cost thing? I'd have thought it might be a good chance for Remainers to come out in force and actually elect some pro-EU MEPs, it feels like half the problem we've had is that our representation there is so poor so no positive messages return to the UK.

I think it relates to what I said upthread about the EU now seeing us a bad actors. (The person upthread who disagreed thought I was talking about the past, I think, rather than the current parlous situation mainly.) If we elect MEPs, we will be in a position to influence EU business going forward and in particular the EU budget. Considering the hostility of the current administration towards the EU, the extreme hostility to be expected from whoever replaces Theresa May, and the extreme and chaotic nature of British politics at present, I can see why this would be highly undesirable for them.

But I agree with you that, if possible, it could be a good opportunity for an electorate who are newly engaged in EU politics to make change, and if we managed to get rid of the likes of Farage it could send a positive signal to Europe that there is an appetite here for a different way forward. I am unclear why Westminster is so negative about electing MEPs, even the remainer MPs and softer Brexiters. They can always be recalled if/when we actually leave. The expense of holding EU elections is a drop in the ocean to the overall cost of Brexit and fucking Brexit up. And there are other options, such as leaving existing MEPs in their positions, or seconding MPs to Europe pro tem. As with Brexit generally, it does feel as though a whole spectrum of options is being closed down summarily for no very good reason, leaving us more and more boxed into an undesirable corner.

MsJuniper · 20/03/2019 12:13

Thanks for those responses doIreallywantto and mattfreis - really interesting.

Imnotswallowingthat · 20/03/2019 12:20

Various political journalists on twitter are reporting that Labour will not support any move for an extension to Article 50. Its almost as if Corbyn would like to leave with No Deal......

doIreallyneedto · 20/03/2019 12:24

So May claims to have sent a letter asking for an extension but the EU have not yet received it edition.cnn.com/uk/live-news/brexit-delay-latest-gbr-intl/index.html

Has she used a carrier pigeon or sent it off with someone on horseback? Surely a letter requesting an extension would be sent via electronic means?

Imnotswallowingthat · 20/03/2019 12:29

Her letter to the EU is freely available to read on Twitter so I'm sure the EU must have seen it.

bellinisurge · 20/03/2019 12:32

I still have faith that there are enough grown ups in Parliament to stop a crash out including TM. But then I'm a general prepper so I say that from a position of being ready for the worst.

MattFreisWeatherReport · 20/03/2019 12:42

So, Reuters are reporting that the EU has offered an extension to either 23 May or to the end of the year (not the 30 June extension May asked for). It remains to be seen how she will react...

doIreallyneedto · 20/03/2019 12:43

@Imnotswallowingthat - Her letter to the EU is freely available to read on Twitter so I'm sure the EU must have seen it.

They would be very silly to dedicate a session to discussion of a twitter post! They cannot discus it until they receive it formally. There is no way of knowing whether the twitter version is the one that was actually sent or if there were ammendments made.

doIreallyneedto · 20/03/2019 12:44

@MattFreisWeatherReport - So, Reuters are reporting that the EU has offered an extension to either 23 May or to the end of the year (not the 30 June extension May asked for). It remains to be seen how she will react...

If that's the case, then it looks like the letter has been delivered. Hope someone is feeding the pigeon.

LittleSF · 20/03/2019 12:58

So the EU is not letting the UK extend to past the date of the European Parliament elections. If they want to stay in longer, they have to hold the elections - if they don't, they will be removed from the EU. Is this the plan? I can't imagine that No. 10 wouldn't be aware of something so basic.

DanglyBangly · 20/03/2019 13:01

Asking for a short extension surely means no deal is now likely again? It looks to me like she’s forcing a choice beteeen iher deal or no deal on 30 June.

MarshaBradyo · 20/03/2019 13:13

Listening to R4 Corbyn’s belligerent voice is still more irritating than May’s

Even at this hopeless impasse which is bad enough

MattFreisWeatherReport · 20/03/2019 13:13

Actually, it now seems Reuters are quoting a briefing document, which may have predated the sending of this request, so it may not be reliable to quote it as a definitive response... Patience, grasshopper!

I think Brexit is sending us all a little bit mad...

EnlightenmentwasaPassingPhase · 20/03/2019 13:27

However, at this stage, they are getting pissed off with the UK

They've been pissed off with us for decades but desperately want us to remain (as do I)

Listening to statements from our government (Irish), while we want to help the UK out of this mess

It's nothing to do with wanting to help UK out! The net exporters to UK don't want any disruption to trade.