How likely is it that we will crash out with no deal in nine days time?

[ncagain222]

Just that really. Do we think Theresa May will be able to secure a short extension from the EU and if she can’t, does that mean we’ll be crashing out with no deal in just nine days time?

it might be better just to rip the plaster off now and let you crash out

And what will happen to the GFA then? Will Ireland/EU erect a hard border on the island of Ireland?

@EnlightenmentwasaPassingPhase - And what will happen to the GFA then? Will Ireland/EU erect a hard border on the island of Ireland?

That is the question. I guess the thinking is if no deal is inevitable, then just get on with it. It's only changing when the shitstorm hits.

The Irish government have stated they won't put border checks in place but the EU won't allow that as it creates a massive hole in the EU border. The UK have said they won't put tariffs on goods going across the border in Ireland if they aren't destined for Britain. But that means they are imposing different conditions on different countries and so would contravene the WTO rules, unless it is an agreed backstop.

On the plus side, a no deal brings the likelihood of a united Ireland much closer. On the minus side, I don't want a united Ireland this way. I want it to happen because a majority genuinely want it, rather than feeling it is the frying pan rather than the fire. Equally, I absolutely do not want a return to the troubles.

Basically, I don't know. I have been hoping for a revoke or a very soft brexit but to be honest, at this stage, I'm starting to think the EU and Ireland would be better off longterm without the UK. If you stay, there will, more than likely, be agitation to leave and quite possibly a repeat of all this. We have already spent a fortune in money and time preparing for a no deal brexit. Our government should be spending that time and money on the many other pressing issues facing us at the moment.

@EnlightenmentwasaPassingPhase - It's nothing to do with wanting to help UK out! The net exporters to UK don't want any disruption to trade.

I never said there wasn't self interest. I said we want to help you out of this mess. It is in our interests to do so.

I just don’t know what May can sensibly do.

She could have tried talking and listening to a cross section of Parliament two and a half years ago, but was too pig-headed to do so. There's not much she could do now, except revoke and tell the ERG to produce a fully costed case for crashing out which could be brought back to Parliament in the fullness of time. But she won't do that.

I think it's only rumour about the eu, it still needs to be discussed during the summit over Thursday and Friday, and it's not yet sure if we will get a decision by then. It is also rumoured they will grant the extension if and onlyif her deal passes.

From what I can see, there is further assurances available, she wants to then have a third pass of the deal at another meaningful vote next week. If it passes we will leave on thr 30 June.

If it does not she will resign. She will not take if further. We would then be into a leadership contest and a lengthy delay whilst the whole thing is re worked. It could even end up in a general election. However her resignation would trigger a lengthy delay, as we would not crash out with no prime minister.

I suspect it's more likely she will resign and the deal will not be passed. Howcer it remains to be seen what was agreed with tusk that she wishes to add.

If it does not she will resign.
And that silly slogan Brexit means Brexit will thankfully be consigned to the dust, and as for the bit 'And I intend to make a success of it' will have the words 'You failed' appended to them. I won't be shedding many tears for her. She and her husband will both retire to live in comfort.

The next Parliamentary vote needs to be WA or Revoke (with intention to re-invoke at later date). Extension is a waste of everything.

No deal is the least attractive option for both the UK and the EU. However, WA seems to have been pushed away by the speaker who dug up some old law. Can partly see his point as many thought May was intentionally running the clock down as trying to force her deal through.

For an extension all 27 EU members have to agree. Can't see it happening. At least one will have an axe to grind.

After Theresa May’s speech: 100%.

It looks like we're heading for no-deal

The speaker hasn't killed off WA. That's just wrong. He has said the wording and substance needs to change. Nothing a half decent lawyer can't fix to get it put to the House again.

Based on the EU’s comments about needing the WA to pass and TM’s performance last night, a no deal exit must be almost certain now.

a no deal exit must be almost certain now

I am beginning to think that too, but still hope it does not happen. Unthinkable disruption will follow a no deal departure from the EU.

Give the MPs a chance (another one) to vote on WA and I think it will go through- TM's plan all along to make it the only version of Leave available that isn't No Deal.
Disgraceful that we are all being put through this but I don't think WA is dead. Yet.

Crashing out seems inevitable

May is only thinking about her party and seems willing to inflict huge damage on the country. As for the EU, they may not want a no deal but there is nothing they can do to stop us from opting that way.

I am not hopeful on this.

Unless and until there is the outcome of a 3rd Meaningful vote, we cannot say No Deal is the only path. If WA passes on a 3rd vote then we leave grumbling in an orderly manner on 29 March. If people want this, they know what to do :Lobby their MP.
If people want no Deal (and some stupid unpatriotic fuckers do), it's still possible. If some people want Revoke, it might be what happens.

Or rather we leave grumbling at the end of a technical extension.

interactive.news.sky.com/2017/brexit-countdown/

I can’t decide who are worse - the leave voters who started all this or the politicians who have created this disaster!

EU wont show their hand unless we say we leave with no deal.

EU wont show their hand unless we say we leave with no deal

I think that too

I think the EU very much want the WA signed and have found it very easy to exploit the incompetence of our parliament and particularly TM. I agree that they will hold their nerve until the bitter end. We will reject the WA because we should (this is one point that has given me hope - it's worth the risk of no deal in my eyes) and then there will be a white knuckle moment when parliament has to decide between revoke or no deal. Even then, EU will keep their nerve. Only in the event of no deal will they offer a longer transition of up to two years so we have time to change our minds. It will be seen as them helping us out (which it is really) but we will have to pay heavily for it. In the event of Revoke, in spite of it being on same terms/conditions, I believe we will not be able to show the required "good faith" so there may be a cost to that too.

Given TM's dogged pursuit of the impossible, and her managing to piss almost every single MP off last night by blaming THEM for the situation, I'd say it's at least 95% likely.

So many have said they cannot vote for the WA now because of her, even if they manage to circumnavigate the EM ruling of the Speaker and have MVIII.

No deal means throwing Ireland under a bus. I don't think the EU can justify that.

I don't think the UK can justify it either but if it's willing to throw its own residents under the bus, it's not going to give a fig about Ireland or anyone else.

When Greece was going to crash out of the euro it went to the wire again and again. I think it will be the same here. The next few days will be extremely stressful but I don't think we are crashing out next Friday. Something will happen.

So many have said they cannot vote for the WA now because of her, even if they manage to circumnavigate the EM ruling of the Speaker and have MVIII

If they have said that they seriously need to grow up. This is not a game. Millions of lives are at stake not just in the UK but across the EU.

But why would they sign up to something they don't agree with? It's not right that she's holding them to ransom; that is NOT democracy or a functioning parliament.

She needs to consider ALL other options, including revoke. SHE is the problem because she won't.