Westminstenders: Erskine Mayhem

[RedToothBrush]

John Bercow has stepped in. We've long made the point, that the position of Speaker was utterly crucial to the outcome of Brexit. However this ruling was long warned as a possibility. It was somewhat overlooked by all (including me).

We are now faced with the bizarre narrative that May was just about to be able to get her deal through, and it's now simply Bercow who has tried to sabotage Brexit.

The reality is that his ruling has the effect of making BOTH no deal And a lengthy extension (possibly with a PV) much more likely.

May now has to embrace one of these option (by accident or design) or find a way to substantially change the terms of her deal as put to the Commons, either through negotiation with the EU or bolting something significantly different to her deal like a variation of the Kyle Amendment (a PV based on her deal or remain). Or find a majority to overturn the standing order that Bercow has cited as the reason for his block.

This block also might apply to the Benn amendment (indicative votes) or other PV amendments. Which could equally be problematic going forward.

In reality Bercow has upped the stakes and forced May to do something meaningful rather than simply holding a gun to MPs heads to vote. Hurrah for parliamentary Sovereignty and limiting the abuse of power of the executive!?!

It's a completely neutral move in practice. The HoC has tied itself in knots with how it's voted for political reason rather than for the national interest. The British Constitution has just stood up for itself. Bercow is just a useful target to blame for the incompetence of the entire house for the last 3 years.

The billion pound question this morning is where does that now leave us?

The honest answer is I'm damned if I know.

Maybe the EU will come up with a magic bullet for May, maybe the Cabinet can come up with a magic bullet, maybe May will take the political magic bullet of a long extension or revocation or maybe we'll just all shoot ourselves in the head and foot with no deal.

I have no idea.

10 days to go.

@DGRossetti - I like your Hari Seldon reference. I don't know if I should be scared that there might be a Foundation behind the scenes manipulating all these events, or hanker for a world where an enlightened, detached organisation was pulling the strings for the good of humanity.

Pmk

This is a sane approach. But far too little too late. Should have been done a long time ago.

Amen to that Red

RTB, I'm happy with that approach, but why has it taken to now to decide on it?!

The problem with the Opposition parties planning a new approach and new negotiations
is that the EU may no longe have the patience or the time to devote to Brexit

The EU seem to be pushing the WA and saying the future relationship is not fixed in transition, but can be changed to e.g. SM, if the UK wants

Their main aim is to avoid No Deal and get a planned Brexit
Thereafter, transition can be extended as long as needed to negotiate a new future relationship ( easy to mutually agree to amend a treaty for that)

Esther Webber @estwebber
Charles Walker, chair of the procedure cttee, says we are now in a "political free-for-all" with ministers voting abstaining on 3-line whips so ex-Labour members should be allowed to stay on cttees - "we've broken all the existing rules, why not break some more?"

Important for the Tiggers are trying to boot from select committees.

Pmk

Hello. Just catching up with the Brexit omnishambles during my coffee break, and shamelessly place marking.

It appears Erskine May has rapidly become one of the most famous alumni of DS’s school. Suddenly everyone knows who the Erskine May Hall was named after.

Henry Newman @henrynewman
On @BBCr4today @pmdfoster says the odds of the UK leaving before the European elections are low and it's more likely before "December if at all"

MPs. Wake. Up.

Interesting from the Telegraphs Europe correspondent Peter Foster.

The EU seem to be pushing the WA

... because if that's passed then the follow-on negotiations can occur through well defined (and tested) channels.

The UK crashing out in a no-deal, and becoming an instant 3rd county (just add chaos) means the EU will have to go through all the effort to set up a negotiating team and strategy. Which will be met with whinging and whining and obstruction every step of the way by the UK and it's band of Brexiteers for whom noting will ever be good enough.

(Also the WA keeps the UK out of the US clutches....)

All of that said, the EU - with 27 countries, 450 million citizens is more than capable of protecting itself if needs be. Indeed, if you only ever read the UK newspapers word cloud (I won't dignify it with "reporting") about Brexit you'd think the UK and EU were somehow equal in all this. Which is probably part of the problem.

Important for the Tiggers are trying to boot from select committees.

Although I cant stand Frank Field and think Heidi Allen is 1 of the biggest hypocrites in parliament I do think it would be a travesty for them to be taken off the W&P select committee theyve done some sterling work because theyve both been on the committee for quite a few parliamentary sessions

Robert Peston@Peston

A number of Tory MPs have said to me that if @theresa_may^ makes good on her promise/threat to seek a long Brexit delay, the immediate price will be her forced resignation.^

This is not a happy party

< won't be a happy country with Boris / Gove / Leadsom / ... as PM >

won't be a happy country with Boris / Gove / Leadsom / ... as PM

As a hypothetical if one of the Brexit 'dream team' were to become PM I wonder if the PLP could squeeze through a NC vote because I doubt the Tory remainers would want to give either of those three any power

Bruno Waterfield@BrunoBrussels

EU will want assurances that Britain will not be a “spoiler” on European legislation by using its veto and voting power to disrupt decisions on Brussels budgets and trade negotiations.

Although all the moaning about MFF is a bit misleading as no one really expects decision until Feb/Mar next year anyway.

EU more worried about UK being a “spoiler” on legislation, some signs it is doing that already

As to the question as to whether Corbyn is not electable... I will not vote for him, and as a former long term labour member, that is I feel the core of the problem labour face.

Obviously, being a centre left person (i.e. the centre ground, Blair's area) my opinion has no value. After all... who actually NEEDS the centre ground to win an election? /sarcasm

I think Labour (and certainly Corbyn) has forgotten that despite being "more pure left wing" than other previous leaders, if Labour does not gain the votes of the centre ground, ideological purity counts for nothing. A party with no chance of power is simply a protest party. Nice to feel good and warm inside, but with no real affect on peoples' lives.

Barnier says he is a simple soul.
Something has to be either short or long.

From SKY website
{He (Bercow)cited a centuries-old convention as he warned the government against bringing back the twice-defeated Brexit deal for another vote if it remains unchanged.

Ms Merkel added: "I'll concede that I wasn't actively aware of the British parliament's rules of procedure from the 17th century, so I took note of this with interest yesterday."}

How DARE a foreign Chancellor not know the details of the UK constitution since the Romans left!

@WhatdoImean I can't say I share that view but I know many who do

Corbin did win a lot of votes in the last GE did he not?

I do agree that Labour needs to move to the centre to have a good chance of a majority at the next GE

Which I predict will be reasonably soon

yes, the UK has never been 'left leaning' and having Corbyn is a guarantee of perma-opposition. It's just fact of life. Brown-Blair-Callaghan-Wilson. Not left-leaning.

*Corbyn.

I'll never vote labour with JC in charge.

JC isn't in charge. Momentum vandals are 'in charge'.

After all... who actually NEEDS the centre ground to win an election?

I'm not sure chasing that mythical centre ground is the way to win the election, pre-Corbyn it was getting harder and harder to distinguish between Labour and Tory manifesto commitments and that doesnt appear to do Labour any favour, and a lot of the electorate when polled do agree with quite a few of the Labour policies put forward at the last GE

I think Labour (and certainly Corbyn) has forgotten that despite being "more pure left wing" than other previous leaders

I think hes barely more left than Red Ed

ideological purity counts for nothing

It seems to if you're a Tory voter though, I give you Brexit and austerity

{EU more worried about UK being a “spoiler” on legislation, some signs it is doing that already}

Sadly the crap that is going on now is playing straight into Putin's hands. What is happening in the UK is in some respects unimportant but getting far right and other disruptive influence into Europe (worse than it is already) is a massive danger to all.

JC isn't in charge. Momentum vandals are 'in charge'.

Citation needed please