Westminstenders: Erskine Mayhem

[RedToothBrush]

John Bercow has stepped in. We've long made the point, that the position of Speaker was utterly crucial to the outcome of Brexit. However this ruling was long warned as a possibility. It was somewhat overlooked by all (including me).

We are now faced with the bizarre narrative that May was just about to be able to get her deal through, and it's now simply Bercow who has tried to sabotage Brexit.

The reality is that his ruling has the effect of making BOTH no deal And a lengthy extension (possibly with a PV) much more likely.

May now has to embrace one of these option (by accident or design) or find a way to substantially change the terms of her deal as put to the Commons, either through negotiation with the EU or bolting something significantly different to her deal like a variation of the Kyle Amendment (a PV based on her deal or remain). Or find a majority to overturn the standing order that Bercow has cited as the reason for his block.

This block also might apply to the Benn amendment (indicative votes) or other PV amendments. Which could equally be problematic going forward.

In reality Bercow has upped the stakes and forced May to do something meaningful rather than simply holding a gun to MPs heads to vote. Hurrah for parliamentary Sovereignty and limiting the abuse of power of the executive!?!

It's a completely neutral move in practice. The HoC has tied itself in knots with how it's voted for political reason rather than for the national interest. The British Constitution has just stood up for itself. Bercow is just a useful target to blame for the incompetence of the entire house for the last 3 years.

The billion pound question this morning is where does that now leave us?

The honest answer is I'm damned if I know.

Maybe the EU will come up with a magic bullet for May, maybe the Cabinet can come up with a magic bullet, maybe May will take the political magic bullet of a long extension or revocation or maybe we'll just all shoot ourselves in the head and foot with no deal.

I have no idea.

10 days to go.

A number of Tory MPs have said to me that if @theresa_may makes good on her promise/threat to seek a long Brexit delay, the immediate price will be her forced resignation.

Oh yeah ? And how they gonna do that ? They can't call for a vote of no confidence, and even if the entire cabinet resigned, she'd just plough on. The T72 of British politics.

The only thing they could do is vote against the government in a vote of no confidence. Which we all know they won't.

More "all talk, no trousers" ....

Gavan Reillyy@gavreilly*

BARNIER:

"If UK wishes to leave the EU in an orderly fashion, this withdrawal treaty is the only treaty available.
It's the only possible basis…

in the absence of the ratification of this agreement, we are now faced with genuine uncertainty which applies both to the UK and EU…"

"To leave this period of uncertainty, we need choices to be made.

We need decisions to be taken by the UK.
The House of Commons voted against the Withdrawal Agreement and against a No-Deal scenario,
but voting against No Deal does not prevent it from happening…"

"Everyone should now finalise all preparations for a No-Deal scenario.
On the EU side we are prepared…

If PM May requests such an [Article 50] extension before the European Council on Thursday, it will be for the 27 leaders to assess the reason and usefulness for an extension…"

"EU leaders will need a concrete plan for the UK, in order to be able to make an informed decision. The key questions will be: does an extension increase the chances for the ratification of the Withdrawal Agreement?…"

"Will the UK request an extension because it wants more time to rework the political declaration…
[which] could be made more ambitious in the coming days, if a majority in the House of Commons so wishes.

If not, what would be the purpose and the outcome of an extension?…"

"…And how can we ensure that at the end of a possible extension, we are not back at the same situation as today?

The European Council will have to assess what is in the best interest of the EU…"

"It is for the British government and parliament to decide, very quickly, what the UK wants to do next

Matt King of the Place

LeClerc
The Economist printed last Saturday that UK parliamentary rules would block another vote
I am gobsmacked that anybody in Westminster was surprised at Bercow's decision

It is for the British government and parliament to decide, very quickly, what the UK wants to do next

As much as I dont particularly want a PV do you think this could force Treeza's hand into 1?

This is take direct from Hansard from Thursday:

Division 364
14 March 2019
6.08 pm
The House divided:

Ayes: 412
Noes: 202
Question accordingly agreed to.

Resolved,

That this House:

(1) notes the resolutions of the House of 12 and 13 March, and accordingly agrees that the Government will seek to agree with the European Union an extension of the period specified in Article 50(3);

(2) agrees that, if the House has passed a resolution approving the negotiated withdrawal agreement and the framework for the future relationship for the purposes of section 13(1)(b) of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 by 20 March 2019, then the Government will seek to agree with the European Union a one-off extension of the period specified in Article 50(3) for a period ending on 30 June 2019 for the purpose of passing the necessary EU exit legislation; and

(3) notes that, if the House has not passed a resolution approving the negotiated withdrawal agreement and the framework for the future relationship for the purposes of section 13(1)(b) of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 by 20 March 2019, then it is highly likely that the European Council at its meeting the following day would require a clear purpose for any extension, not least to determine its length, and that any extension beyond 30 June 2019 would require the United Kingdom to hold European Parliament elections in May 2019.

Wording here is interesting... May can only ask for a short extension by the look of this. Though can (and must?) return to the HoC if the EU say that only a long extension is OK, or if May decides on a second extension (HoC voted for a one off extension).

Amendment to the WA to bring it back?

HoC are quite pissed off this afternoon as Labour have tabled a motion to remove two Tiggers from Select Committees and have 3 line whipped votes.

This is despite JC having argued that whips should be involved in Select Committee nominations previously.

Lots of MPs standing up for the two Tiggers.

What a bunch of venal, self serving bankers

^"Everyone should now finalise all preparations for a No-Deal scenario.
On the EU side we are prepared…"^

Oh. Dear.

Barnier is not given to waffly statements. There goes the "EU wants to avoid no deal for itself" card.

May needs to have a pretty substantial "something" to get any extension. Words are not enough anymore. Also, all she would get is an extension - nothing else. If she thinks she can get an extension and use it to carry on blubbering to the EU, she's sorely mistaken.

Sorry, one Tigger and the MP that resigned but didn't join the Tiggers.

Well, bankers and wankers 😁

The 2017 GE gives a misleading impression of Corbyn's appeal, because he won many Remainers who hadn't then realised he is a Lexiter / or they wanted to vote against May's hard Brexit

and he also won past & present students and their families who hoped he would cancel uni fees

Both groups now see the reality behind the "oh Jeremy Corbyn" chants ...
there is nothing behind, except an empty stage

Corbyn fans can keep insisting as much as they want how silly we are not to vote for him
but if we won't vote for him, then he is the problem

He gained votes from the left who had given up voting, but lost traditional Labour votes
and he cannot win the centre
or attract liberal Tories who can't stand Boris

With a normal Labour leader, we would probably have seen many more Tory defections, to the Tiggers and even to Labour
they might have joined in votes of no Confidence

However, hardly any moderate Tories are willing tomexcahnge May for Corbyn
So this disfunctional govenment staggers on helplessly,
dragging us all down with them

I think we all need to prepare for a no deal and we will fall out on the 29th march. Time is indeed running out and I cannot see EU giving even a short extension as there is nothing May can do. She can present her WA once again by overriding Erskine May but that needs a vote ( or two) but she cannot depend on it going through. The earliest she could present it will be about the 25th. Unless everybody who needs to change their vote to agree the WA I can't see its a given it will pass. That leaves 4 days. Nope time is out. God help us all.

The EU Commission may be prepared, but the E27 countries are not, e.g. Calais

However, the UK is so unprepared it is frightening

Even worse, Grayling is organising it all ..... < whimpers >

I'm concerned that if we stumble into a no deal situation after this, the hatred of the EU will be immense... i don't expect the people in its vast majority to have followed the last 2 years with an impartial eye. The blame will be put on the EU & Europeans and it'll be awful...

Agree with BigChoc
None of my pro Corbyn Friends are looking forward to a General Election of whom there are far fewer than two years ago
Lots of them will be in London on Saturday.

I'm not sure how people couldn't work out JC's Brexit leanings. Wasn't it obvious during the referendum?

John Bull's satire on Grayling EMing the envelope instead of the Revoke letter < sobs >

is yet another possible accidental Brexit that I hadn't thought of !

With a normal Labour leader, we would probably have seen many more Tory defections, to the Tiggers and even to Labour
they might have joined in votes of no Confidence

I doubt it BCF the Tories always seem to be party before country type politicians

because he won many Remainers who hadn't then realised he is a Lexiter

Id agree there is something in that however it doesnt really matter if he's a Lexiteer or not, thats down to the membership and he goes against that at his own peril

and he also won past & present students and their families who hoped he would cancel uni fees

Had he got in is there any indication he wouldnt have carried that through?

The new Brexitcast podcast is called Erskine Mayhem. You beat them to it, @RedToothBrush

Seems like Barnier believes May is trying to get transition via extension.

Ie wants extension until UK decides to leave. In other words managed no deal. They’ve already said no to this months ago.

The EU Commission may be prepared, but the E27 countries are not, e.g. Calais

In the past two years, I have learned one thing. Barnier speaks very very deliberately. It's hard to think of any instance where he has wasted words. It's why they are so valuable. I'm sure there are plenty of places where no-deal planning has more than a week to go. But (as with Theresa Mays weasel words) there is a ringing clarity about "we are ready". Clear enough (for me) that the "as we can be" wasn't necessary.

That's my take. I look forward to being wrong.

• Its the percentage of the population seeking work who are unemployed. Kids riding two hours a week for deliveroo are not out of work students are not out of work the retired are not out of work*

Does anyone know how they collect this data? By what means? What sample size? How do they choose the sample?

Tories have defected to the Tiggers, so loyalty is not absolute

Without Corbyn, imo, there would have been many more defections and possible an NC vote that forcd a GE,
which Labour under another leader would have won, likely being 20-30% ahead.

Corbyn has been avoiding the PV ever since the conference decision,
foiling every attempt by his own MPs

As I said, no point telling us we should be voting for him - and most of us here are the typical voters Labour would need -
We won't
and polls show that so many other voters won't

2017 was a temporary illusion, which was soon dashed

I doubt it BCF the Tories always seem to be party before country type politicians

As much as I still hate that women theres is no way we'd be in this situation if Margaret Thatcher was still in there, never agreed with her but she seemed to be doing what she was doing to try and improve the country in her mind so these days I def give her more respect than I ever have andI hold May responsible for making me hate Thatcher less lol