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Brexit

Westminstenders: Erskine Mayhem

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 19/03/2019 09:55

John Bercow has stepped in. We've long made the point, that the position of Speaker was utterly crucial to the outcome of Brexit. However this ruling was long warned as a possibility. It was somewhat overlooked by all (including me).

We are now faced with the bizarre narrative that May was just about to be able to get her deal through, and it's now simply Bercow who has tried to sabotage Brexit.

The reality is that his ruling has the effect of making BOTH no deal And a lengthy extension (possibly with a PV) much more likely.

May now has to embrace one of these option (by accident or design) or find a way to substantially change the terms of her deal as put to the Commons, either through negotiation with the EU or bolting something significantly different to her deal like a variation of the Kyle Amendment (a PV based on her deal or remain). Or find a majority to overturn the standing order that Bercow has cited as the reason for his block.

This block also might apply to the Benn amendment (indicative votes) or other PV amendments. Which could equally be problematic going forward.

In reality Bercow has upped the stakes and forced May to do something meaningful rather than simply holding a gun to MPs heads to vote. Hurrah for parliamentary Sovereignty and limiting the abuse of power of the executive!?!

It's a completely neutral move in practice. The HoC has tied itself in knots with how it's voted for political reason rather than for the national interest. The British Constitution has just stood up for itself. Bercow is just a useful target to blame for the incompetence of the entire house for the last 3 years.

The billion pound question this morning is where does that now leave us?

The honest answer is I'm damned if I know.

Maybe the EU will come up with a magic bullet for May, maybe the Cabinet can come up with a magic bullet, maybe May will take the political magic bullet of a long extension or revocation or maybe we'll just all shoot ourselves in the head and foot with no deal.

I have no idea.

10 days to go.

Westminstenders: Erskine Mayhem
OP posts:
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27
DGRossetti · 20/03/2019 14:33

I wonder what the possibility of a 27-day extension might be Hmm One day per EU country as a final "don't let the door hit you on the arse on the way out" from the EU ?

BigChocFrenzy · 20/03/2019 14:33

Wait until Friday afternoon

TatianaLarina · 20/03/2019 14:33

Laura k has retweeted

zerohedge @zerohedge

FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTER: IF MAY CANNOT OFFER GUARANTEES HER BREXIT DEAL WILL BE PASSED IN BRITISH PARLIAMENT THE EUROPEAN COUNCIL WILL TURN DOWN HER EXTENSION REQUEST: RTRS

SparklySneakers · 20/03/2019 14:34

The guardian does however

PestyMachtubernahme · 20/03/2019 14:34

Perhaps the EU countries could do a unanimous veto.

Show us how it is done.

BigChocFrenzy · 20/03/2019 14:34

If they believe any guarantee from May, then they are idiots

DGRossetti · 20/03/2019 14:34

The BBC seem consistently 'slow' at getting news out.

The word that needed qualifying there is "news" ...

TatianaLarina · 20/03/2019 14:36

BBCpolitics @BBCpolitics

"There are big question marks" over whether Theresa May should carry on as PM, says Conservative MP Nigel Evans - "trust is waning, it's ebbing away... she has failed"

BigChocFrenzy · 20/03/2019 14:37

Merkel too ?

James Mates@jamesmatesitv

If this is anything close to Angela Merkel’s view, May could be facing a very hostile audience in Brussels tomorrow afternoon.

.......
Norbert Röttgen@n_roettgen

#May just asked #EU for short #Brexit extension.

But without backing by cabinet and parliament her request is meaningless.

@JunckerEU is right:
EU leaders should defer decision until #UK presents an approved plan.

EU cannot become accomplice of May’s internal tactical manoeuvres.
< ouch >

Peregrina · 20/03/2019 14:38

Her constituents voted to leave, and nationally there were more votes for leave. Pretty obvious what she has to do IMO.

What MPs have to do is to use their judgement for the good of the country. If they genuinely now think that Leaving with No deal or May's WA are bad options it's their duty to say so. Just because some posters believe that Remain MPs in Leave voting constituencies have to act as delegates for their constituents but Leave voting MPs in Remain constituencies (e.g. looking at you Redwood), have to tell their constituents to STFU, doesn't make it so.

DGRossetti · 20/03/2019 14:39

"There are big question marks" over whether Theresa May should carry on as PM, says Conservative MP Nigel Evans - "trust is waning, it's ebbing away... she has failed"

Does he realise what a thick twat he sounds like ? I think a lot of the British public reached that conclusion - without an expensive private school + OxBridge education - years ago.

TatianaLarina · 20/03/2019 14:39

Laura K

Right hand and left hand.... opposition parties say they've been invited to see PM about extension at about 6 tonight, they have also been invited separately by David Lidington's team to be briefed about extension at, about 6 tonight

BigChocFrenzy · 20/03/2019 14:40

Röttgen is a German MP and Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the Bundestag
So very influenctial in Germany - tough for Merkel to ignore

LonelyTiredandLow · 20/03/2019 14:40

Guardian news reports that Pound at all time low

Tanith · 20/03/2019 14:40

"Leaves are too quiet at the moment. I was hoping to see some frothing about "how dare the EU not do what we want" sort of nonsense."

I thought they were still on their constitutional from Sunderland? Or have they given up on that now?

TatianaLarina · 20/03/2019 14:40

Oxbridge ain’t want it’s cracked up to be. Hence - May.

PestyMachtubernahme · 20/03/2019 14:41

The BBC seem consistently 'slow' at getting news out.

The state broadcasting service seem consistently 'slow' at getting news (sic) out.

BigChocFrenzy · 20/03/2019 14:42

Rööttgen retweeted this - they really are worried here about May's successor

Nicholas Soamess@NSoames*

Magnificent news Boris endorsed by the unspeakable Steve Bannon #earlykissofdeathh^

DGRossetti · 20/03/2019 14:42

I'm going to suggest the march on Saturday has a 60% chance of going ahead now. Can't be sure what scuppers it, but I can see it being viewed as an attempt to strongarm the Mother of Parliaments (which is a phrase that will never mean the same after 2019) into a course of action. Which obviously must be resisted.

SparklySneakers · 20/03/2019 14:43

TM really didn't attend politics 101 did she.

TatianaLarina · 20/03/2019 14:43

Faisal Islam

NEW: anti-No Deal Minister: “I suspect Parliament will take control on Monday”... which suggests another round of rebellion/ abstention/ resignation/ whipping innovation

BigChocFrenzy · 20/03/2019 14:43

BBC are possibly waiting until the official EU Council communique

Until then, it could be noise & posturing, or arms could be twisted to change

However, the meeting minutes issued on Friday will be legally binding documents

DGRossetti · 20/03/2019 14:44

“I suspect Parliament will take control on Monday”

So which Status Quo farewell tour did you see then ?

LonelyTiredandLow · 20/03/2019 14:44

DG it could potentially now be a potential target for crazy but lazy leave voters to "get one back" on EU Sad

tobee · 20/03/2019 14:46

From observation over the years Sky and ITN tend to put out news that's still slightly speculative. BBC wait for official confirmation.