Westminstenders: Erskine Mayhem

[RedToothBrush]

John Bercow has stepped in. We've long made the point, that the position of Speaker was utterly crucial to the outcome of Brexit. However this ruling was long warned as a possibility. It was somewhat overlooked by all (including me).

We are now faced with the bizarre narrative that May was just about to be able to get her deal through, and it's now simply Bercow who has tried to sabotage Brexit.

The reality is that his ruling has the effect of making BOTH no deal And a lengthy extension (possibly with a PV) much more likely.

May now has to embrace one of these option (by accident or design) or find a way to substantially change the terms of her deal as put to the Commons, either through negotiation with the EU or bolting something significantly different to her deal like a variation of the Kyle Amendment (a PV based on her deal or remain). Or find a majority to overturn the standing order that Bercow has cited as the reason for his block.

This block also might apply to the Benn amendment (indicative votes) or other PV amendments. Which could equally be problematic going forward.

In reality Bercow has upped the stakes and forced May to do something meaningful rather than simply holding a gun to MPs heads to vote. Hurrah for parliamentary Sovereignty and limiting the abuse of power of the executive!?!

It's a completely neutral move in practice. The HoC has tied itself in knots with how it's voted for political reason rather than for the national interest. The British Constitution has just stood up for itself. Bercow is just a useful target to blame for the incompetence of the entire house for the last 3 years.

The billion pound question this morning is where does that now leave us?

The honest answer is I'm damned if I know.

Maybe the EU will come up with a magic bullet for May, maybe the Cabinet can come up with a magic bullet, maybe May will take the political magic bullet of a long extension or revocation or maybe we'll just all shoot ourselves in the head and foot with no deal.

I have no idea.

10 days to go.

80s I actually don't know any remainers who didn't think that the EU would benefit from some kind of reforms.
I am European and have no wish to leave the EU that doesn't mean I don't think it couldn't be improved.
There is no correlation between wanting to stay in the EU and believing it to be perfect.

May still wibbling as if she has any say any more. It's pathetic.

God almighty just watching PMQ. What a complete and utter shambles. I'm ashamed of all our politicians.

So May posts her letter up after the start of PMQs. Such disrespect for Parliament and any pretence of open government.

The UK problem is that it wants to change things that the rest of the EU don't

The EU public don't want to change things like FOM, because they value it
Even the populist parties want to keep this - for European citizens

The ECJ is necessary, because a trade bloc requires a huge number of legal regulations, which require a court to judge them

Cameron was offered the chance for the EU to be in a special outer ring of the EU,
which would not be required to join the Eurozone, or have any further integration than current

However, there would be no rolling back of the current agreements
So FOM, ECJ etc would stay

Cameron refused, partly because he wanted the UK in the inner ring, making policy / laws for other countries ... but he didn't want the Uk to be bound by those laws it didn't like, e.g. no FOM or binding ECJ

The last several years of UK interaction with the EU have just been about obstruction and trying to get cake
Total waste of time

OMG what a bunch of posturing, arrogant, rude pricks.

The EU would probably delay any response to an extension request until they know what the HoC will do next week.

Currently they don't know
neither does anyone else, including the HoC itself and May.

Hasenstein and family

Another agreeing with DR and I eyeroll at hardline remainers think EU is magical

I voted remain because the alternative was worse....look at me so radical, hard core and elite. So uncompromising in my insistence that I don't want a harder life for anyone. What a stubborn cow I am...

Hassenstein
The whole travel situation is so fluid at present I would sort out various possible routes and leave it at that for now and decide which to take as soon as you need to go.
If there is a direct flight Stanstead to Bremen with an European airline that might continue.

The EU would probably delay any response to an extension request until they know what the HoC will do next week.

I really can't see an extension being agreed. Sorry. The EUs stance has been set out, and the UK is still showing no signs of "getting it".

If it results in the appearance of May being slapped in the face, then so be it. At this level of the game actions have consequences, and Mays actions have been disgraceful from the off.

Let's all stop wishing and be dispassionate. What exactly (and at this stage it needs to be exact) what exactly can happen in the next 9 days to change anything ? May has set her course. Parliament and the Tory party have set theirs. What's to do ?

This is what happens when you collectively trust other people to do their jobs.

@Hasenstein

The whole E27, even Irish govt, sounds out of patience and unsure about extension:

Jon Stone@joncstone

Article 50 extension latest:

Germany: We're "really exhausted", this is "not just a game", we need "precise proposals”

France: We need "something new", can't be extension to "remain in same deadlock”

Barnier: "Why do you want an extension? What for?"
......
Fabian Zuleeg@FabianZuleeg (European Policy Centre)

And yet in the UK the assumption is that the extension is there for the asking,
with the illusion that UK can decide on length etc
......
Irish deputy PM Simon Coveney:

"There's a lot of concern amongst EU member states and partners about the prospect of a long extension of Article 50".

Says "people will need convincing on" it with "a very persuasive plan to explain why that's needed" and how UK will use time.
.....
"The EU do not want to grant an extension on request for the UK that brings us back to the same point that we are at today, in three months, six months, nine months time, having wasted a lot more time".
.....
"I don't think there's any appetite amongst EU leaders to simply kick this can down the road because it hasn't been possible to coalesce a majority in Westminster"
....
"Often in the UK the focus on Brexit revolves around trying to find agreement within the British parliament and the British parliamentary system.

There are so many other countries that are impacted by Brexit too”
.....
"I think people would be very foolish to assume that this is just some kind of political game and that an extension will automatically be facilitated.

I do think EU leaders will be demanding"

Not seen the detail of the letter, but I understand that of the page and a half, fully a page is used to complain about the Speaker, with only the penultimate paragraph asking for an extension to 30 June

DG The response next week may just be "fuck off" in all the official EU languages !

@Hasenstein - don't know if anyone has said it but the old school thing to do is contact the German Embassy if you are concerned about getting to a loved one in Germany. Email them if you can. I'm old and that's my immediate thought.
Best wishes.

"she might resign"
Doesn't she realise what an inducement that would be ?

Hasenstein The EU are keeping flights going for the next 9 months, even if No Deal
(provided Grayling has done the necessary from his side - the EU contingency plans I posted had a pretty blatant reminder to him !)

I'd suggest going by air and avoiding the ports, which may be logjammed.

Check if you can get travel insurance though, because EHIC may not work after No Deal

Implication of what PM saying v forcefully is that she might resign if Parliament or the EU forces delay beyond end of June

More reason to force a delay eh...

A long delay must be so temping to the EU as they’d rid the government of much of its dead wood! Though there’s zero hope it’d make negotiations easier. 😡

TM doesn’t know how to behave in negiotiations.

The letter to Tusk is a disgrace.

Especially where, instead of ‘asking’ for an extension, she is ‘informing’ him we are seeking one.

I hope they do tell us where to stick it.

Manfred Weber - VIP -
(leader of the Conservative grouping in the EP and likely to succeeed Juncker when he retires)

calling for a PV, to let the people decide when the HoC cannot

It does show that TM is utterly sick of it all too. We just need her to get so sick of it that she just revokes and walks off into retirement!

May's letter
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/787434/PM_to_President_of_the_European_Council.pdf