Westminstenders: Erskine Mayhem

[RedToothBrush]

John Bercow has stepped in. We've long made the point, that the position of Speaker was utterly crucial to the outcome of Brexit. However this ruling was long warned as a possibility. It was somewhat overlooked by all (including me).

We are now faced with the bizarre narrative that May was just about to be able to get her deal through, and it's now simply Bercow who has tried to sabotage Brexit.

The reality is that his ruling has the effect of making BOTH no deal And a lengthy extension (possibly with a PV) much more likely.

May now has to embrace one of these option (by accident or design) or find a way to substantially change the terms of her deal as put to the Commons, either through negotiation with the EU or bolting something significantly different to her deal like a variation of the Kyle Amendment (a PV based on her deal or remain). Or find a majority to overturn the standing order that Bercow has cited as the reason for his block.

This block also might apply to the Benn amendment (indicative votes) or other PV amendments. Which could equally be problematic going forward.

In reality Bercow has upped the stakes and forced May to do something meaningful rather than simply holding a gun to MPs heads to vote. Hurrah for parliamentary Sovereignty and limiting the abuse of power of the executive!?!

It's a completely neutral move in practice. The HoC has tied itself in knots with how it's voted for political reason rather than for the national interest. The British Constitution has just stood up for itself. Bercow is just a useful target to blame for the incompetence of the entire house for the last 3 years.

The billion pound question this morning is where does that now leave us?

The honest answer is I'm damned if I know.

Maybe the EU will come up with a magic bullet for May, maybe the Cabinet can come up with a magic bullet, maybe May will take the political magic bullet of a long extension or revocation or maybe we'll just all shoot ourselves in the head and foot with no deal.

I have no idea.

10 days to go.

Tory MPs vow to quit party if Boris Johnson becomes leader

With Tories convinced that Theresa May’s days in No 10 are numbered, MPs are feverishly discussing who will seek to replace her, how organised the teams are and whether a general election would be necessary.

One minister said she would leave the party if Johnson and his supporters, such as Jacob Rees-Mogg, took over the Conservatives.

Another minister said he knew of five or six Conservatives who were openly saying they were so opposed to a Johnson premiership that they could not stay in the party run by him and a group of “Brexit ultras”.

Anna Soubry, the former Tory minister who quit to join the new Independent Group, said she believed “people will leave” if Johnson were to become prime minister.

80s The world and the EU have moved on since 1975
with trade being far more integrated, global rules, regional rules, JIT manufacturing ...

The nearest equvalent to the "Common Market" today - the trading relationsjup - is the Single Market
This requires FOM and accepting the ECJ

The UK could negotiate membership of this in transition, but only if it drops its red lines

Sorry to hear than Hanestein. Good luck with your travels

Am astounded that May hasn't even consulted the House over what is in the letter. Once more party over people. I wonder what excuse she has used for a short extension?

Personally I think the EU are waiting because they can see there is no desire for an extension in their own countries and are hoping UK will now be forced to make some decisions.

The Customs Union would not give totally frictionless trade, not enough for NI
and the EU would require us to obey all the Single Market trading rules, to ensure their businessses were not put at a disadvantage

So, it is basically the all-UK backstop !

Yes, things have changed a lot I agree but if they say ' we'll negotiate a new deal : a new common market arrangement ' it might help things along a bit? ( wishful thinking probably)

We don't even know if she's sent the damn letter do we?!

Mother et al

Thanks for the compassion.

We live in SE, so usually go via Dover. We need to get to Bremen, which only has flights from Stansted. I think we'll have to drive via Dover and just accept it'll be horrendous on the way back. Do the ferry companies let you on the next boat if you miss your scheduled crossing?

Will our EHIC cards still work? We've both got previous health issues, so private insurance might be prohibitive.

Cat may have to go into a cattery for the first time. Poor thing will hate it. Plus we have no idea how long we'll be away.

Panicking a bit at the moment. Need to calm down and look at all options and problems logically. DW not back yet - will be distraught and probably add to my panic.

There’s a Brexit yoga video floating around which is funny and lightened the mood for about a second, before I remembered how everyone leading is hopeless

80s What you want is basically the "cake deal" that Tories have been demanding and the EU refusing_
The benefits of the SM without obeying the requirements

It would destroy the Single Market on which the eu prosperity depends, so it is a total non-starter.

The CU - because of ireland - would end up being basically a permanent backstop and would not deliver the totally frictionless trade that JIT requires

The SM requires FOM & ECJ

Common Market 2.0 is a Brexiter soundbite, which resurrects proposals that the EU or Uk have previously refused.

It is up to the UK to budge - the EU is not going to destroy its SM to solve an internal Tory pary row in a country that is leaving

Even some hard core remainers agreed that the EU could do with a few reforms.
With the EU elections coming up and all this still up in the air it could be a good time for a bit of new thinking? People need to change their views a bit ; the govt could play a real blinder and try a new tact?
' common market 2'
Might shift some focus?

Long-time lurker here.

So sorry Hasenstein

Could a friend or helpful neighbour take the cat while you're away?

It really annoys me listening to Conservative MPs like Helen Grant (currently on Sky News) saying "the nation wants the Government just to get on with Brexit " (my bold).

At most , half the nation wants Brexit to happen - and even that is debatable given the demographic impact of time elapsed since the Referendum (Leave voters quite literally dying and young, more like to be Remain, voters coming on to the electoral register). Why do they continue to get away with the assertion that the Remain voters don't exist?

Hasenstein.
I believe the Dover ferries are so frequent that they are 'happy' if you miss one and get another.
EHIC might depend on crash out or not. It will be in fine print somewhere.
Try to keep calm, accept it will be a pain in the proverbial and take extra sandwiches.

Even some hard core remainers agreed that the EU could do with a few reforms.

I object to the characterisation that most Remainers didn't feel - and agree - the need for EU reforms. Especially when it was one of the lazier ways Leavers tried to shut down debate, by pretending that only they had noticed anything wrong with the EU, and all remainers were oblivious to any faults.

The EU was - and is - far from perfect. But its a damn sight better than being an independent pissant country on the fringes of the super bloc the EU is. Better to push for change from within - especially as the UK was such a big hitter in the EU. Creating the SM for a start.

{And the French will have to give up their go slow soon, fingers crossed.}
If there is a 'no deal' it will become almost permanent and worse as new infrastructure, staff and pay dispute resolution aren't happening.

Hasenstein lots of love to you and DW.

@antoguerrera
3m3 minutes ago
More
Booooom!
BREXIT:EU COMMISSION DOCUMENT SAYS EXTENSION TO JUNE 30 WOULD BE LEGALLY AND POLITICALLY DIFFICULT, MAIN OPTIONS FOR EU LEADERS ARE TO DELAY BREXIT UNTIL BEFORE MAY 23 OR AT LEAST TO THE END OF 2019 (reuters)

80s A special "Cake deal" for the UK is a unicorn,
that has prevented any negotiation on what would actually be possible.

It is not regarded seriously by anyone, except UK Brexiters

Some things in the EU need reforming
Weakening the Single market - on which their prosperity depends - is absolutely NOT one of the reforms that anyone wants, not even the most Eurosceptic parties

Countries all around the world are increasing integration within their regional trading bloc
Noone else appart from the UK is trying to weaken its trade ties with its regional bloc

If they give the Uk special privileges, then under WTO rules and MFN clauses in their 40 existing FTAs with 70 countries, the EU would have to give the same privileges to many other coutries
The SM would be dead

Also, the EU is not going to make ANY reforms just to please a member that is leaving

A treaty change requires the unanimous approval of all 28 EU members and would take several years to negotiate,
because the Lisbon treaty is an enormous legal document, with tens of thousands of pages

Of course the EU needs to reform. How and how fast they can achieve it is an issue but at least it is being thought about.

Thanks everyone. Does anyone know if the delays are less in Dunkirk than Calais? I've looked on the Internet, but no clear info.

hasenstein 💐

I agree completely with DRGs last post

I missed what time the emergency debate/subsequent vote would happen. Any idea anyone?