Westminstenders: Erskine Mayhem

[RedToothBrush]

John Bercow has stepped in. We've long made the point, that the position of Speaker was utterly crucial to the outcome of Brexit. However this ruling was long warned as a possibility. It was somewhat overlooked by all (including me).

We are now faced with the bizarre narrative that May was just about to be able to get her deal through, and it's now simply Bercow who has tried to sabotage Brexit.

The reality is that his ruling has the effect of making BOTH no deal And a lengthy extension (possibly with a PV) much more likely.

May now has to embrace one of these option (by accident or design) or find a way to substantially change the terms of her deal as put to the Commons, either through negotiation with the EU or bolting something significantly different to her deal like a variation of the Kyle Amendment (a PV based on her deal or remain). Or find a majority to overturn the standing order that Bercow has cited as the reason for his block.

This block also might apply to the Benn amendment (indicative votes) or other PV amendments. Which could equally be problematic going forward.

In reality Bercow has upped the stakes and forced May to do something meaningful rather than simply holding a gun to MPs heads to vote. Hurrah for parliamentary Sovereignty and limiting the abuse of power of the executive!?!

It's a completely neutral move in practice. The HoC has tied itself in knots with how it's voted for political reason rather than for the national interest. The British Constitution has just stood up for itself. Bercow is just a useful target to blame for the incompetence of the entire house for the last 3 years.

The billion pound question this morning is where does that now leave us?

The honest answer is I'm damned if I know.

Maybe the EU will come up with a magic bullet for May, maybe the Cabinet can come up with a magic bullet, maybe May will take the political magic bullet of a long extension or revocation or maybe we'll just all shoot ourselves in the head and foot with no deal.

I have no idea.

10 days to go.

TM is arrogant enough to leave on the 29th and sort out any litigation later.

The possibilities og Operation Yellowhammer are endless. Civil Contingencies Secretariat will impliment is emergency plans, which could range from covering TMs arse to declaring a state of emergency. Nobody knows, however, we could look to the Greek crisis (and other examples) for some ideas.

Clinging on to the possibility of revoke

I think that’s the opposite of the case. I don’t think anyone here has thought a Parliamentary Revoke without GE or PV or cross party consensus was likely.

Parliament has already expressed its opinion of No Deal - anti. But at as long as extension is on the cards that is a far preferable option for Parl than Revoke.

However, if you take a reasonable extension off the cards. And if Parl is faced with a straight choice No Deal or Revoke - that is the point at Revoke and pretty much the only point which Parl Revoke hoves into view.

RTB reported discussion of Revoke yesterday - something we’ve never heard before.

Support for Revoke now, while there are still other options, is not really representative of the scenario of a do or die No Deal.

Now, I’m not saying it would happen. It would be very much last chance saloon. But it’s not impossible.

www.thesun.co.uk/news/8675290/independent-group-could-stand-candidates-at-mays-european-elections/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
ON THE BALLOT Independent Group could stand candidates at May’s European Elections
The so-called TiG is contacting the Electoral Commission to see if it can register as a political party in time for the possible ballot

That's two parties (not including the Tories who have denied it though seem to have been talking to the EC) actively getting ready for EU elections.

Fingers crossed that works, Nuffing. I think Bercow would be sympathetic to that request given the almighty clusterfuck that is our government.

Alison McGovern has tabled standing order 24 emergency debate to attempts to gain control of parliament, in much the same vein as Cooper amendment etc. Fingers crossed it bloody works

This is the sane way to proceed. The last attempt only lost by a few votes.

Alison McGovern has tabled standing order 24 emergency debate to attempts to gain control of parliament

How likely is this to succeed?

Paul Waugh @Paulwaugh

Am hearing moves afoot for an emergency SO24 Commons debate with a potential vote forcing May to rewrite EU letter to include longer extension option. Bercow hinted SO24 rules could be bent earlier this week to make it substantive not neutral notion. Expect fresh govt panic.

Oliver Norgrove may not have thought about the NI/Irish border but some of us did. For me, honouring the GFA was the clincher to make me vote Remain, much though I would have liked to give Cameron a kick in the teeth.

Robert Peston
‏*@Peston*
More Robert Peston Retweeted Paul Waugh
Part of the quiet MPs’ coup to take control of Brexit from PM. It’s happening

Ian Dunt @iandunt

My belly hurts. Lots of speculation. Nothing definite. I can't cope with the unknown.

I just googled Alison McGovern.. didn't know much about her. I'm willing to attach limpet like to any new Phoenix type heroine rising from the ashes.

Her husband is an economist (Ashwin Kumar) formerly a senior civil servant in the DWP.

I'm still hoping for a long extension for a PV. Enough people out on Saturday could make a difference. And if there isn't a PV at least we have shown the world that there are a huge number of people in the country who don't want this. It is annoying to have to say "not in my name" but it is really important. Peaceful demonstrations can make a difference, especially for those politicians with one eye on the history books.

I really hope TIG can manage to field candidates in the EP elections (if we take part) because I'd vote for them. It would be really interesting because not only would I vote for the first time in any EP election, I'd also be starting to persuade others to do the same. Literally nobody I know has voted in EP elections and if remainers turned out to vote it could make a huge difference.

I'm not being sexist obvs as her DHs career is peripheral - it was the economist point.

New revoke and remain in EU petition.

just googled Alison McGovern.. didn't know much about her

Me too. Going by her voting record on theyworkforyou she seems sane.

This would be an excellent season finale- previously not very well known MP comes through as unexpected hero and wrests control from the demented Tory 'leader'ship, saving the country from Brexit . I'd go for that.

Go on to Ian Dunt’s twitter if you can. Info there.

On the standing order I mean not McGovern.

From Parliament website

What is an emergency debate?
An emergency debate is called at short notice on a subject of a "specific and important matter that should have urgent consideration".
Applying for an emergency debate
MPs can apply to the Speaker for permission to hold a debate on a topic not scheduled in the week's business* under the rules of Standing Order (SO) No. 24. If the Speaker is satisfied that the subject fulfils the criteria set out in SO No. 24, the Member has three minutes following question time (and any urgent questions or ministerial statements) to make their case to the House.
*Note: Parliamentary business is announced by the Leader of the House each Thursday following oral questions. This is usually 10.30am but may be later if there are ministerial statements and/or an emergency debate.

But as wresting control of the process was the substance of the almost passed Benn amendment how does that sit with Erskine May.

Or can you have numerous similar bites at the cherry as it was an amendment ?

If there is to be a long extension to encompass a PV/GE, it will need to be suggested - and seen to be suggested by the UK.

Reading around the issue, the reporting is interestingly shifting ... plead is a strong word to use in a headline. Especially when it's the UK PM doing the pleading. Must take some wind out of some Leaver sails .... (I thought the UK held all the cards ?)

Good time to go trolling - catch you all later

I've emailed my MP asking him to support Alison McGovern's attempts anyway.

For anyone who hasnt heard it a really good and honest interview by JOB with Oliver Norgrove (sp?)

Jack Maidment
‏*@jrmaidment*
Understand that any move to secure/call for a long Article 50 extension, whether through SO24 debate or other means, will not be supported by Labour.

FFS. What the actual fuck is Labour playing at?