Westminstenders: Erskine Mayhem

[RedToothBrush]

John Bercow has stepped in. We've long made the point, that the position of Speaker was utterly crucial to the outcome of Brexit. However this ruling was long warned as a possibility. It was somewhat overlooked by all (including me).

We are now faced with the bizarre narrative that May was just about to be able to get her deal through, and it's now simply Bercow who has tried to sabotage Brexit.

The reality is that his ruling has the effect of making BOTH no deal And a lengthy extension (possibly with a PV) much more likely.

May now has to embrace one of these option (by accident or design) or find a way to substantially change the terms of her deal as put to the Commons, either through negotiation with the EU or bolting something significantly different to her deal like a variation of the Kyle Amendment (a PV based on her deal or remain). Or find a majority to overturn the standing order that Bercow has cited as the reason for his block.

This block also might apply to the Benn amendment (indicative votes) or other PV amendments. Which could equally be problematic going forward.

In reality Bercow has upped the stakes and forced May to do something meaningful rather than simply holding a gun to MPs heads to vote. Hurrah for parliamentary Sovereignty and limiting the abuse of power of the executive!?!

It's a completely neutral move in practice. The HoC has tied itself in knots with how it's voted for political reason rather than for the national interest. The British Constitution has just stood up for itself. Bercow is just a useful target to blame for the incompetence of the entire house for the last 3 years.

The billion pound question this morning is where does that now leave us?

The honest answer is I'm damned if I know.

Maybe the EU will come up with a magic bullet for May, maybe the Cabinet can come up with a magic bullet, maybe May will take the political magic bullet of a long extension or revocation or maybe we'll just all shoot ourselves in the head and foot with no deal.

I have no idea.

10 days to go.

Jessica elgot@jessicaelgot
Pretty hard to see how events this morning help convince Labour MP that what they really need to do is help her out, back the deal and trust that the PM will keep her promises to them on the future negotiations...

The EU cannot make a decision if she does not send the letter, no delay can be granted if a request for a delay is not made.

Tony Connelly @tconnellyRTE 5 minutes ago

Senior EU official: We have not received any letter to President Tusk, and have not received a request from the UK of the extension of A50 in any other form. The situation as it stands is that there is still no request.

Really looking forward to the implementation of Operation Yellowhammer on Monday NOT

Tony Connelly @ tconnellyrte
Senior EU official: the EU27 leaders will have a discussion on the Brexit state of play at 3pm tomorrow, including No Deal preparations.

I wondered if they were waiting until after the march as well. People’s Vote is supported by many organisations, including those who must have influential contacts in the EU. Open Britain is an umbrella organisation for many others eg Scientists for EU.

do we actually know what Operation Yellowhammer will involve?

We know that living in Kent is going to be a very bad thing.

I really think we've hit game over now and it's no deal on 29th.

I don't think there will be an extension. It's all too late in the day.

We know that living in Kent is going to be a very bad thing.

And guess where ( I~ don't ~care if ~my ~son ~loses ~his ~job ) FIL lives.

Might be harder for us all to visit...

Pretty hard to see how events this morning help convince Labour MP that what they really need to do is help her out, back the deal and trust that the PM will keep her promises to them on the future negotiations...

I believe that's why we're in this mess: TM has shown herself to be utterly untrustworthy. They know she will renege on any promise she makes. Even her own party don't trust her.

Brexit is so deep in what passes for their souls that there is genuine fear among Tory bigwigs that their party could be replaced by an openly hard right Brexit party

Too late, surely ?

Daily mail cover was interesting in where it's decided the blame is going ...

I wonder what's the point of the march now

To say not in my name.

To show the EU that our government isn't us.

No-one in Govt supports revoke

But no-one in government is actually 'in government' - in the sense that there is now no majority for anything, although for the last 1000 days it has been obvious that there is no version of Brexit that can command a majority in Parliament and no version of Brexit that does not contravene the GFA.

Unfortunately the UK has a tribal, largely two-party electoral system. Even if there is a majority of MPs in the House to vote for revoking A50 (as is the duty of MPs if they believe it is in the best interests of the country), there is no Parliamentary mechanism for putting this to the vote and the two major parties will not allow such a vote which would split their parties.

The point of the march is that we need to peacefully let our feelings be known. Things aren't fixed yet, every day there's a new twist. Don't lose faith unless we actually leave. At that point, the campaign to rejoin needs to start, little seeds now...

Remember that prediction about the excuse for a US reverse ferret ?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47634365

The current deadlock over Brexit and possible delay to the UK's planned leaving date of 29 March suggests democracy in the UK is "all but dead", Donald Trump Jr has claimed.

Mr Trump Jr, who is the US president's son but holds no political position, wrote a column in the Daily Telegraph.

In it, he criticises PM Theresa May for having "ignored advice from my father".

(contd)

What I don't understand is what the hell was the point of the 'against no deal under any circumstances' vote when it means absolutley nothing?

I get that its an expression of opinion but what difference did it really make?!

Finally - who else would get the irony if the UK request for an extension were to be declined because France said "Non" ?

Missed a few pages but does anyone know whether we will actually leave on 29th March or whether article 50 would lapse as suggested by the article I posted earlier..? Seems a pretty important point to clarify.

I wonder what's the point of the march now

I mentioned upthread, if it comes to a vote between No Deal and Revoke the numbers who marched may be key in swaying votes. For that reason alone I think this march is more important than ever.

Am I wrong to think this choice is still a possible outcome?

I wonder what's the point of the march now

To show that we are still here. To tell the foreign press and the rest of the EU that our media and the ERG don't speak for the majority. To show we haven't 'got behind' Brexit. To make Farage look stupid when the march he's organised numbers 60 or so and we get 700,000 plus onto the streets.

Yes I saw an article by some legal boffin that said if no deal by 29th the default is that article 50 would lapse, not no deal exit. Anybody know more about this?

Alison McGovern has tabled standing order 24 emergency debate to attempts to gain control of parliament, in much the same vein as Cooper amendment etc. Fingers crossed it bloody works.

Crossed post with havanna. Why is there no mechanism for putting this to the vote? What would stop TM from saying this is now the choice we face, No Deal or Revoke? I don’t mean her personal/party political reasons, I mean what would technically prevent thiis?