Westminstenders: Erskine Mayhem

[RedToothBrush]

John Bercow has stepped in. We've long made the point, that the position of Speaker was utterly crucial to the outcome of Brexit. However this ruling was long warned as a possibility. It was somewhat overlooked by all (including me).

We are now faced with the bizarre narrative that May was just about to be able to get her deal through, and it's now simply Bercow who has tried to sabotage Brexit.

The reality is that his ruling has the effect of making BOTH no deal And a lengthy extension (possibly with a PV) much more likely.

May now has to embrace one of these option (by accident or design) or find a way to substantially change the terms of her deal as put to the Commons, either through negotiation with the EU or bolting something significantly different to her deal like a variation of the Kyle Amendment (a PV based on her deal or remain). Or find a majority to overturn the standing order that Bercow has cited as the reason for his block.

This block also might apply to the Benn amendment (indicative votes) or other PV amendments. Which could equally be problematic going forward.

In reality Bercow has upped the stakes and forced May to do something meaningful rather than simply holding a gun to MPs heads to vote. Hurrah for parliamentary Sovereignty and limiting the abuse of power of the executive!?!

It's a completely neutral move in practice. The HoC has tied itself in knots with how it's voted for political reason rather than for the national interest. The British Constitution has just stood up for itself. Bercow is just a useful target to blame for the incompetence of the entire house for the last 3 years.

The billion pound question this morning is where does that now leave us?

The honest answer is I'm damned if I know.

Maybe the EU will come up with a magic bullet for May, maybe the Cabinet can come up with a magic bullet, maybe May will take the political magic bullet of a long extension or revocation or maybe we'll just all shoot ourselves in the head and foot with no deal.

I have no idea.

10 days to go.

Brexit Secretary Steve Barclay has reportedly written to Cabinet announcing Operation Yellowhammer - worst case planning for no deal - will be implemented on Monday.
In event a Brexit extension is not agreed over the weekend Op Yellowhammer command and control will be 'enacted fully', the Telegraph reports.

It is the first step towards a State of Emergency and Martial Law - coming your way in 10 days time.

Good to see that MN doesn't think Brexit is important. Apparently teachers swearing in class is a VITAL topic to be discussed.

Would the warring Tory factions please take their battle outside to the playground and let some grown ups try and sort this mess out.

I sometimes look at the express just to see the crap they write.

Supposedly Cabinet ministers are on there way there to tell her to resign.

In the other hand I am watching Himeland at the moment on netflix (last series) and I can’t help but draw comparisons. Not got to end yet...............

flowerpower I am in France and I run a little English class in my village (mix bunch of retirees, parents who want to help their kids, young people who want to improve for work etc..) Brexit comes up now and again usually with much sympathy for me

However last week one of my students went off on one about the extension.

France tbf has more than enough problems of it's own; les gillets jaunes, train strikes, teachers strikes. They have run out of patience with the UK taking up time and money that could be better spent.

The anger in the room was palpable, they really want us gone. They see footage of NF at the EP, they read enough English to see what the UK papers say about the EU. The worst part was looking around my class they were all nodding along with her

On a positive note I was extremely proud of her correct use of fuck when she summarised with 'the UK can just fuck off now'

What WONT cause a Tory Civil War is really the question

This is probably what TM is trying to achieve with her WA. I actually think that would put off a Tory civil war for a few years.

Would a people’s vote put off a civil war. If Remain won by over 60%? Is a people’s vote completely off the table now?

I might start a thread in Style and Beauty. Not for a laugh at all, you understand. It’s my day off and I have no plans so might be a diversion.

I think it's 1000 days since the Ref today. All that time and nothing achieved. Disgraceful.

OK, so a 3 month extension. Anything can happen in that time. A change of personnel, for example. Or it could be time for 'events, dear boy.'

And that means 3 months extra for the Govt to come to their senses and Revoke. (Although that might seriously piss off the EU.)

We need to go the March, write to our MPs again and push to take part in the EU elections.

A HUGE turnout on Sat will hopefully make our EU neighbours realise it’s not all Farage and his Pensioner Pioneers (nb I am a pensioner myself) over here.

@borntobequiet dare you!

When will we know what's in the letter?

The March this weekend is important.

I hope all of who can march will do so for ourselves as well as for those who can't.

Agree Chevvy and Flowerpot. I’m feeling so frustrated by a dear friend who is passionate about staying in the EU - one of the few friends I have I feel I can talk to at length on the subject. So many others seem to have a ‘oh god not this again, how boring’ attitude or an uncomfortable, almost embarrassed reaction if it’s brought up or a ‘we can’t do anything about it so why waste your time worrying about it’ attitude. This particular friend though really gets it and will talk/rant ‘til the cows come home. Messaged her to see if she was coming down for the March though and her reaction was that she’d thought about it but decided no. Didn’t respond at all when I asked why.

I feel like the stakes are so high now. Surely there’s a chance this could come down to a HoC vote between No Deal and Revoke?

If that chance exists we really do need to stand up and be counted.

Literally.

Messaged her to see if she was coming down for the March though and her reaction was that she’d thought about it but decided no.

I know this feeling. I've a friend similarly pro EU - she's married to a Dutchman FFS. She rants and raves about the absurdity of all this.
I asked if she'd join me and 4 friends on the march. No because the children have sport etc activities on Saturday. What's more important and Why does that take both parents?!

Sadly.... with the news that TM is requesting only a short extension, I think we are looking at "game over".

The EU will NOT allow a longer extension without EU elections, something that the Tories cannot countenance. As such, by having a short extension, there will be NO option other than to leave by mid-June. This means that there will either be TM's deal or no deal.

And that is it.

I had vague, optimistic hopes of a second referendum or PV.

Those have now gone. Game over

Feeling very down

I've subscribed to the Government 'No Deal' updates. This came through today.

Foreign travel insurance

It is important to take out comprehensive travel insurance before travelling abroad

8:23am, 20 March 2019: Information on the use of European Health Insurance cards (EHIC) in the event of a no deal added to the EU Exit update section

lonelyplanet I wonder if in some ways it’s easier to be complacent if you’re married to someone from another EU country? Her own family’s freedom of movement isn’t under threat. You’d think though she might consider their immediate access to fresh fruit and medication slightly more important than one weekend’s sporting activities...🤔

Sorry if I'm repeating things...haven't had chance to fully catch up.

Peston, who is usually spot on, says TM will only be going for an extension to July and is being called up in front of the 1922 Committee @ 5pm for them to basically tell her the Tory party will split if she goes for the option of a longer extension and that she needs to set a date for her resignation.

It's pretty fucking obvious that the ERG and similar have every intention of stopping us from fielding MEPs and so this is their last play to no deal (unless TM somehow manages to scrape through the WA based on fear).

I've been betting on no deal for a couple of months now and I'm still sure that's how this ends, just in June/July.

I'm sorry to say (again) but REVOKE IS A UNICORN.

There will be no revoke. No-one in Govt supports revoke. TM is totally opposed to revoke. Anyone who replaces TM will only be even harder right and more anti-EU than TM. Revoke will not happen. You may as well kill that unicorn and bury it and accept that it is not an option.

Clinging on to the possibility of revoke in the current circumstances is akin to thinking you're going to win the lottery this week. Sure, theoretically it could happen. But it won't. It really won't.

My question is though...since Parliament passed an amendment to a motion saying she would go for a short extension if WA passed by today and long extension if it hadn't....isn't she bound by Parliament to ask for a long(er) extension?

I don't understand how she can avoid it without going against Parliaments expressed wishes?

Or will she just say "Well...I didn't say how long the longer extension was...the short extension was June, so the longer extension is July"

But....surely this would start getting into even more serious constitutional issues since that clearly wasn't what was meant or implied at the time the motion was passed?

Can somebody clarify why the EU would offer us any length of extension? I know that they're not quite ready and so on, but they're more ready than we are.

I was just thinking that they'll have analysed the various possibilities and it seems that we'd either waste the time by fighting amongst ourselves, and/or use the extra time to wreck procedures within the EU.

Sparkly I have PMd you...

I think they will allow us one just for political reasons...they don't want the UK population to feel we 'no dealed' (and all the pain that comes with that) because of them.

I think Junker is saying there will be no decision this week about whether they agree an extension

Why wait until after the weekend? Are they waiting to see what the happens at the march?

They want the UK to stew and the penny to drop. Plus they need to agree and persuade all 27 to be on board.

they don't want the UK population to feel we 'no dealed' (and all the pain that comes with that) because of them.

The UK population is split into two camps now -
...
the ones who know that No Deal pain is not anybody's fault but our own self-inflicted idiocy (and mostly who have braced themselves for it)
...
and the ones who are so entrenched against foreigners that even if we got fucking unicorns bearing gold nuggets, would be screaming "betrayal" and "bullying" because the unicorns were the wrong colour or had too-shiny hooves.

There is nothing the EU can do to appease the latter group, and the former group wouldn't blame them.

To the tune of one man went to mow a meadow:

9 days left to go
Left to go til Brexit
One mum went to stock
For a no deal Brexit